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Agreed. Maubr not the best way to go about it but can only be good news.
Finally the end of the Rajapakhsa feudal tyranny. This is good news and long overdue.
It really clears the way for major reforms.
Well, I think the President is the one who's the most unpopular. If he does flee the country, then at least it will bring in some much needed regime change in Sri Lanka, and the start of new political rule, and hopefully, solutions.
Meantime, the political turmoil continues. PM's house has been stormed and set ablaze. He's clearly outstaying his welcome, even more than Boris Johnson!!!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-asia-62105967
Judging by the continuing fall in the share price, I would imagine a number of people have made a similar call. Ongoing bear market is surely making all of us re-evaluate our portfolios and individual investments. Make no bones about it, we're up a bit of a bear market creek here and only the GSMB can throw us the paddle. Each week that they don't, is another week that risks a small decline in the share price. We are seeing this play out right now. And let's face it, we can't rely on CMET to give us good, and confidence inspiring, comms to steer us through this difficult period either?
So whilst I still have a holding here, it just feels a bit like blind faith at the moment in terms of the GSMB. All IMO
Strange but LW also did the same.
I dont think it's the bottom.
I haven't fully sold. Just reduced by 25%. Huge chunk in my SIPP for long long term still. I thought we were at the bottom at 7p/6p/5p. Hoping it doesn't drop further but the level of disquiet around the current economic conditions is not good.
Hoping I'm wrong here. Ideally this other trade works quickly and I can get these back before the growth stage.
Color appreciate your 'upfrontedness', but it's probably not best policy to daily complain and moan about the company/CEO and THEN sell at the bottom.
Had to drop some of my holding off; opportunity elsewhere; it's a painful sell but still heavily invested here. Hoping for a better short term return then drop some of it back in pre IML.
Now i've done this, IML is due tomorrow.
And another week closer to the Sri Lankans next oil delivery !
Good to hear, i just had a mini panic!
Another week down nearly; a week closer to the IML (hopefully!)
Not to mention companies like Polymetal that have almost exclusively projects in Russia still with a live listing on LSE!
Sorry but thats just ridiculous. Not a problem at all. Have you seen all the countries importing Russian oil at the moment? I can hardly see them sanctioning France and Germany for example and banning companies operating there from the UK stock market!
Another potential problem: -
https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/sri-lanka-looks-indians-visitors-restore-battered-tourism-sector-2022-07-06/
If Sri Lanka end up getting themselves sanctioned then CMET may not be able to operate on LSE. Seems far fetched but entirely possible; another thing Frayne should comment on.
The reality is that the country is bankrupt. The PM has said it explicitly. I cannot fathom how this doesn't require a statement from Frayne. Is the IML process stopped/still going/delayed/still imminent? They are literally days away from running out of petrol across the country, that's quite incredible.
An update is urgently required if not regulatory required from the NOMAD. This could easily fall much further; really need to know whether the GMSB is even functioning. It seems to be with recent licenses granted but its very hard to tell!
It depends how you are defining risk. There is the risk to the timescale of the project, from the delay over the IML and the situation in Sri Lanka. In the absence of information from CMET, that risk is impossible to quantify, in terms of days, weeks, months or several quarters. The project is already significantly behind the very first timetable that was published by CMET some 18 months ago. Then there is the consequent risk to the share price and to our portfolios in the interim. The liquidity on the buying side just isn't there to absorb even one or two large holders running out of patience. A delay of weeks to months is likely to see at least some holders to re-evaluate. A further downswing in the bear market, which is one of my concerns, will also likely see some selling. Therefore, that RNS needs to land this month, or at the very least, and 'all is well' update, if we are to avoid the lower 4s or go into the 3s. That's just the sad reality/risk.
Still, for anyone who retains the longer term belief in Sri Lanka and the project, it will just provide an opportunity to buy at lower levels. So all swings and roundabouts I guess, and part of the casino that is AIM.
Not entirely true is it... The IML is in sight; we just don't know when. It's applied for; we just have no insight into when it lands.
Dalt - even you must admit that once the IML is in and CMET can start actual mining; then there will be value added. As frustrated as I am with the opaqueness of the project and inherent risk that Sri Lanka falling apart might mean it all goes wrong; those risks are more short term. Longer term there's obvious value here.
The word "imminent" is definitely overused on LSE. No IML in sight, could be many more money.
That's the point. If that's the case, why hasn't the imminent IML which has been imminent for over 3 months hasn't happened. The market clearly doesn't believe Frayne. The statements being released by the government doesn't match Fraynes. How can 12 hour scheduled power cuts, no domestic petrol consumption allowed not affect operations/staffing?
Last RNS commenting on the economic situation in Sri Lanka was 20th April, impacts of fuel shortages and social governance were noted and CMET declared no impact on the project. If this had changed the company would need to act and update via RNS or the NOMAD would force the issue. I believe no news is good news in this regard.
If the GSMB's functioning and operations have been impacted, because they are unable to get into work, then there's little CMET can do, but to wait out this crisis in Sri Lanka. It probably means that they can't really chase the GSMB either, because that might be unrealistic, impracticable, as well as insensitive. And who knows if our in country team, who would do the liaising with GSMB, have themselves been affected?
Hence why an update from CMET would be good. Leaving shareholders guessing/in the dark is not good form.
It's impossible to get the IML currently imo; I believe all staff are at home tucked up as no petrol/electricity.
I cannot fathom how the nomad hasn't forced them for a statement; this crisis obviously is market sensitive so he should be releasing a statement. I am trying to stay optimistic but I can't see how this will move anytime soon with the IML. The outlook is so bad. Weirdly; it's like you say LW, is it moments away (not sure it is...) and if not why not. It cannot be imminent for months. I've written to MF stating my concerns but I doubt it'll do anything. Next stop is pressuring the nomad.
The company should really provide an update of some sort. The fact that they have not, and the share price is suffering, is indicative of one of the following:
1) They actually don't know themselves when it might be issued. Therefore, there's not much re-assurance they can provide the market.
2) They know for sure that it is imminent, and therefore, there is no point offering an interim update. The whole situation will take care of itself.
The problem is that it is feels like either of these scenarios is as likely as the other i.e. a toss of a coin. The longer it takes, the more nervous/disquieting the whole situation becomes, and making it more difficult to maintain an 'all is well' narrative. It's just been one problem after another in terms of dealing with the authorities, and the jurisdiction itself has been a nightmare for us in terms of the timescale of the project. A more detailed update is what is urgently needed here, or the actual IML.
It's an interesting question, its impossible to estimate which proportion of the SP decline is linked to resources sector, general market decline, Sri Lanka economic issues or the slip of CMET deliverables / IML. The proof will be in how the share price reacts when we finally get the IML !!
When Sri Lanka defaults; and it will in a matter of days, will this affect our value? The value is already rock bottom so i'd hope the sentiment is at an all time low but i'm getting worried that it might just be impossible to do business in Sri Lanka atm. This has real risk of becoming a delay of quarters if not years. You would hope they would be desperately trying to get a project like ours of the ground given the foreign currency generation but people aren't going to work for free!
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jul/04/sri-lanka-limits-fuel-to-essential-services-petrol-station-queues
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-07-04/sri-lanka-offers-fuel-quotas-to-firms-that-can-pay-in-dollars#xj4y7vzkg