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Let us be honest, it has been a bad roller coaster like alot of AIM stocks for the last 5 years. For years it underperformed and made a couple of very poor acquisitions. Best be it gone.
The vote was passed.
It is now over to the regulators, but as there is no real change to the business (it is being bought by a fund rather than a competitor) this should be a formality hence they expect to complete the deal in Q2.
The sp now reflects an nterest rate until the deal is done. They probably need US, UK and EU competition authorities to approve the deal.
please can you explain if the votes were fully met and the final outcome as I I don't understand about certain pending conditions
Yes all will feel they have gained from the transaction and there is enough room for improvement for triton to justify not overpaying.
How long before there is a trade merger and then a relisting at a higher value?
Fair result all around I’d say.
I think it will go through. Although it just depends on a few large SH.
The market has been steady at 910…..no one has pushed it higher and there has been no sign of a counter offer. Most of the recent buyers will take the certain cash return and reflect that many pharma have lost 20-30% recently.
On the other hand if elliot votes no, they are almost obliged to find another way of realising $ 2bn.
General meeting is tomorrow so not long to wait now.
Keeping us in the dark about voting intentions
Sounds like a plan for Elliott. In which case the sp will gradually rise towards 925 (stopping a little short for the time lag to settlement). Elliott will need to announce its acceptance a few days ahead of the voting then the deal will be in the bag but they may hope to create a little uncertainty to pick up more in the market before announcing.
They bought more yesterday, today’s 8.3 saw them go above 14%. Why would you buy at this level, vote against for the price to bomb. Simply kill it and buy up all you want at 700 if you really believe in the long term.
One of their core business areas is arbitrage and that is what they are playing out now knowing that they control the outcome.
Unless their plan is to ensure they are in a position to kill it and buy up the company post share price crash, the deal is done.
So PK do you think Elliott is maximising returns on 925…..and will accept?
Buying as much as it can with a known 1-2% gain…..which is much better than cash returns.
Nice summary Jatw.
8.3 announcement from Elliott shows they still buying, now up to 13.5%. They basically control the deal and now just skimming off the last bits of margin. Have to admire how they have worked this.
Some might see this as an opportunity to make 20p 2.5% relatively risk free if the deal is accepted.
There is no certainty of this and if the deal is voted down then there is a downside of 10-15% to accept.
Some still see a full value between 10 and 11 pounds…..if you are one of them there is potential upside of 10-20% from here……but you might need to wait a few years to see it.
My initial Clin holding came about by buying quantum when the initial approach was made the final offer was 25% higher from memory - but those shares are still underwater by about a pound after this bid……
Place your bets according to your level of risk and ability to act quickly when conditions change.
As an existing holder I am going to hold. I don’t think I will be adding.
If I held zero I would not buy now, but I would be tempted if the price falls on rejection of the bid. I am generally a buy and hold investor rather than a trader so I take a long view and am happy to ride out the peaks and troughs of the market.
Hi Jatw, on that basis does it make sense to buy at this price as the big boys like Elliot who have been increasing their stake at the 920 levels won't want it to drop so will either find a way to push it higher or accept the 925?
Improved offer highlights that the committed shares are still low and nowhere near the 75% needed.
They had to raise the bid otherwise it would have been voted down. Extra 3 weeks allow Elliot and others to see if they can find another buyer to breakup the business and offer a higher price. If not will they back the 925 bid.
925 has been agreed by both sides so what are the reasons for the current price of 896?
Looked like somebody dumped a heap at open - maybe they just have to buy back in discreetly having dumped the price ...
But yet the SP is still trading at 895.00 which seems strange to me.
925 is an improvement of 4.8% and matches the recent market price highs….so everyone can make a profit….but it is the least triton could do.
They reserve the right to raise the bid in the event of another offer emerging.
Increasingly it looks like it is down to Elliott and a few others to determine what happens.
I suspect this bid will be accepted.
Well done to those who sold last week…..the timing of this announcement has been poor/cynical for those who decided to sell over the weekend and placed orders, I suspect the MM have marked down the sp to catch those unsuspecting shareholders and pocket the increased offer….
You are correct - I never wanted this share, as you said, got lumbered with it in the Quantum Pharma deal, and yes, i'm happy with the price I got, but, that's only because I had to pour more money into it to get my average down to a more sensible level. It never was worth and never did reach the £11+ level they claimed it was in the takeover.
To be honest I have no idea where Rigg, or the others are, and if I was to see his name or Quantum Pharma linked with a share I was interested in, i'd walk away.
Quantum was a good business, unfortunately as you said the BOD were inept and clueless.
Thx, good luck to you too, I am genuinely curious to see where this goes.
CrystalBall…glad you are out and hopefully up, at least for your peace of mind, you may find your sell price is bang on the money.
Have watched your posts with some interest over the years, I think you ended up here as a result of the Quantum acquisition? Please believe me….if you think the Clinigen management is useless the Quantum group were clueless! Just look at what they are all doing now…..I think I could write what they knew about pharma on the back of a postage stamp using a thick crayon!
In fairness to Rigg….he knew that and got a decent price at the time.
Good luck!
I sold at 906, and whilst most of my brain is saying good riddance, as I never wanted this share in the first place, there is a morbid curiosity to see what's going to happen.
I've seen prices rise over bids, and i've seen major shareholders hold out for better offers, and i've seen BOD's cave and take their pound of flesh and shaft investors, but this situation, apart from dragging on is very curious, i'm sure the offer looks fair to some here and on the board etc etc, and even to some of the major investors..... but here's the thing, does CLIN NEED to be taken over/bought.... I think the answer to this is no.
and whilst that questions answer remains no, then i think the leverage for accepting the offer is greatly reduced.
i'll keep dropping in and reading to see what changes, good luck all.
Today’s trading update is unexpected given the meeting next week.
It does not say trading is poor take he deal…..it does provide cover for an improved offer.
Over to triton…..market still expects more.
No movement from triton….and the price is still well above the bid.
Squeaky bum time as SAF would say.
Doubt it would go down to 700….if the buyers at 900+ who suddenly see the value they couldn’t a few months ago you assume they would be buyers on any dip.
Lot of the longer holders have reduced their positions so may be happy to sit tight too having reduced their exposure.
Good luck!