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A serious and grim picture was painted by the Chief Scientific and Medical Officers. Infection rates are moving rapidly up in all age groups and currently it is prevalent in the younger healthier age groups (hence no imminent deaths). The infections are now making their way to the older age groups (35+) and deaths will hit the 200 per day mark if no further measures are taken by start of November. This painted a bleak picture and sets the ground for a provisional lock down. Vaccines were mentioned as being in late stage and as I've pointed to many before, we are very unlikely even with our advances to have anything effective this year. There is also no GUARANTEE that the vaccines will work even in the New Year - at best we are looking for a small roll out.
Three very important points for CINE: i) the age group that is currently passing on the virus to the older generation is the exact group the CINE are targeting as movie goers, ii) there will most likely be a lock down soon (all be it temporary) and iii) there is no imminent vaccine or a guarantee of one.
This will no doubt come as quite negative news - these are not my words but what the leading experts in the field with input from leading pharma industry are saying.
On that note, I wish you all the best with your investments.
It is serious yes, but in terms of a Cineworld investment it shouldn’t cause long term alarm. This press conference affects under 15% of Cineworld’s revenues, and I am confident following previous board statements that we will be able to ride out the more localised lockdowns seen now particularly with screens spread across the globe.
@johnht
I was under the impression that infection rates were falling rapidly and that death rates were too?
I’m talking about the country where 75% of our screens exist and not where less than 15% of our screens exist.
States continuing to reopen... surely this is GOOD news for Cine investors?? Why would you think there is bad news?
I think you’re view on Cine must be very limited.
Are you aware of the spread of the business??
@johnht
Will happen...
Will die...
Will come...
Will affect everybody...
Will be a huge risk...
Will be soon rather than later...
Will be everyone fined...
Will be Doom & Gloom...
Will be the end of all business and humanity...
Will...Will...Will... NoFear
winniworld, this is not something just confined to the UK it has come as a second wave in the UK and we are seeing it rise like in other countries. The US is not exempt from coronavirus - you are looking at up to 1000 deaths a day (September 15th). The first wave hasn't been controlled or managed well in the US and the second wave in the US will be pretty bad.
It’s interesting that the UK government briefing at 11am today said the contrary..... they have said that the effectiveness of vaccines in development is looking ever more promising and that we could see a vaccine issued to key workers by the end of the year......
A lot of assumptions there John.
At present infection rates across the US are falling.
Of course there will be second waves... we’re heading into flu season.... this is a given!
However the way the infection rates are being managed is key.... and avoiding widespread lockdowns is key to economies.
There is no point in spouting garbage about infections increasing during flu season. A five year old could tell you that.
If you want to give something useful to the thread then comment on how the virus is being managed.
That is a fair point, and agree US aren’t in a great spot. There will be some rough days ahead, but I still see this as a long term hold and am not put off by volatility in the short term
My take on the UK briefing:
1. Reminder to everyone to wash hands, keep your distance and follow the rules which some are not doing.
2. National lockdown highly unlikely when considering the economy and long term impact including other health issues.
3. Vaccine by the end of the year will protect Key workers and the vulnerable.
4. Mid 2021, vaccines likely to be available to all which means the current social distancing rules will be relaxed.
5. Normality by the end of 2021.
Cinemas operate social distancing protocol and do not serve the same levels of alcohol. Pubs will have reduced opening hours but interestingly, the spread is behind closed doors where it cannot be monitored ! Another 6 months of treading water, so ALL keep safe, follow the guidance and lets see what Mooky has to report on the 24th !
Wetherspoons could be a rewarding investment when it drops into the 6quid area or less obviously risky .
My big worry now is if these new restrictions dont reduce r number that leaves one option.
Government will then impose a full on lockdown perhaps a short one.
It's a shame cine is so impacted by uk situation.
"they have said that the effectiveness of vaccines in development is looking ever more promising and that we could see a vaccine issued to key workers by the end of the year"
They didn't say that, they said that the late stage vaccines were showing antibodies, however we are still not sure if they are safe. They continued to say **IF** they manage to get something approved this side of the year, then it will only be available to a select few. So please don't raise hopes for people. For those who are not sure and don't want to believe other people, please search and listen to the full broadcast - I listened to it live on SkyNews earlier.
As reported on BBC News:
The UK government’s chief scientific adviser, Sir Patrick Vallance, ended the briefing with an update on the ‘’most exciting’’ bit of science - the coronavirus vaccine.
‘’Good progress’’ is being made, he said, with many vaccines now showing they trigger an immune response. Several are in the ‘’very late stage’’ of clinical testing designed to show they are effective and safe.
Sir Patrick says the UK is in a good position, with access to several of them. It’s possible ‘’certain groups’’ could have limited access by the end of this year, although the first half of next year is far more probable.
Most experts agree that a vaccine could become widely available by mid-2021, about 12-18 months after Covid-19 emerged.
This could allow lockdowns to be lifted more safely, and social distancing to be relaxed. But it would be a huge scientific feat and there are no guarantees these vaccines will work.
Thanks friendsps - appreciate you following up with this. I'm quite busy today and will try and contribute where I can.
No problem, I work with Doctors and locally the Covid centre will be in place until Easter 2021 which suggests the intention is to manage Covid 19 over the autumn/winter especially with the normal demands the NHS experience. Covid is in addition of other illnesses.
Scientific developments i.e. vaccines will be the game changer and perhaps Mr Trump will be hoping to make an announcement before the elections !
it would be good to keep an eye on after hours trading - there will some interesting trades (shorts and a few longs).
"There will be some rough days ahead" So why not sell now and buy more shares for the same amount later? Serious question.
Because that's so risky. Just because we think there are tough times ahead, doesn't mean thats correct.
Imagine selling and then the very next day a vaccine getting approved, or a takeover getting announced. You won't have any chance of getting back in at a decent price. I know that's unlikely, but not impossible.
Imagine holding and it goes down to 5p. Then after the recovery goes back to 50p. You could have 10x your investment, or stated pretty much the same. To me yours is the far riskier strategy.
Its impossible to exactly buy at the bottom, but I know one thing. This is not it. With government ramping up restrictions ready for cold and flu season.
@johnht
I fear that isn’t a serious question. I know you’re not uneducated. So why would you question anyone holding onto shares 48 hours before financial results are distributed?
A serious question from me. What are your intentions being on this bb? Are you shorting the stock and hoping that your comments have an impact on the share price? Or are you genuinely trying to help investors by giving honest advice?
5p? We didn't even go to 5p when we had no cinemas open, no furlough, no tax breaks and basically had no hope.
We are in a much stronger position this time around. With cinemas closed mooky says we can last a year.
I think 30p is possible, but thats it. Too many big investors will scoop the shares up.
I guess we see risk differently, I think there's more chance of this going to £1 than 5p.
I was thinking of doing it I thought it drop to sub 35 p with all this lockdown noise but it held pretty well happy I didn’t do it
To be fair, I think hes been genuine and giving a silly example of what he means. I've tried to sell on the hopes of getting in lower and then got burnt by a 10% rise, on a different share.
Sometimes I literally feel as though I control the share price personally. If I increase a share, it drops, if I decrease a share, it rises. I know its partly due to bad judgement, but usually this happens with zero news.
Personally, I wont risk it. If this shares goes to £1 I will have a tasty profit, and I'm sticking to my goal. If it drops to 5p, I've only put in what I can afford to live without, so no worries.
Have u read John's post from 2 or 3 weeks.
Stupid logic there....... The stock I like is being shorted by people who like cine.
So therefore,, those cine guys are wrong too, so I will sort cine.
Haha
@johnycoder really???!! Your imaginary world is a lovely thought, but unfortunately nobody has a magic 8ball. If we did then we would be very rich!
You cannot possibly advise anybody that by shorting they will make 10x their investment.
I’m with prayfor, there is actually a far greater chance of hitting £1 and it’s not likely to do that for a while yet!!
If it did go down to 5p, I'd just buy more. Otherwise, I'm holding. Actually I'll buy more if it goes below 35p.
You only lose when you sell for less than you bought it for.