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Thanks Beta, it's certainly helpful to know October was cash flow positive with US Box Office at $623m. That's still somewhat higher than March and April ($578m and $568m respectively) so I'm not convinced that these month's would have been making money or why looking at the average is not better than looking at it by individual month.
As I said though it doesn't matter much who's right or wrong on this (and we'll probably never know) - the more important thing is that May ($609m and counting) will be much higher than October so from what IR told you this makes it pretty clear that May will be cash generating and so will subsequent months if at least this level can be maintained (which seems pretty assured for June).
So thanks again for the extra info, that's really good to know as it's given me even more confidence that CINE has now turned the corner. I know that you and some others have felt this already, and maybe you were right to, but I just needed to see it for myself in the numbers - and now I definitely have! Cheers.
@hexam
I got confirmed by the investor relations that cineworld was cash flow positive in October and December, but not in November (based upon US box office). As such, the latter provides you a range to determine which months in 2022 cineworld is making cash or not (and that’s without taking into consideration, on the positive side; higher other revenues than box office, cost savings, performance in UK or RoW and on the negative side; higher costs, higher interest rates).
By the way, looking at the average isn’t the right way to check whether they make cash or not. Also cineworld monitors the cash on a monthly basis (even they guide on admission levels average 2022).
I hope this helps.
I think if you haven't booked next week already in the UK you might wish to consider doing so sooner rather than later.
One of my barometer cinemas which I last checked on Friday is showing a massive upsurge in demand all the way through to next weekend. Evenings are sold out already and its restricted availability unless you want to go for the early bird showings of 10a.m. through to about 1.30p.m. Might fare better at the bigger chains with more screens and showings.
Never seen such a surge in demand in the space of a day and a half and its looking like a very good summer for both @Cine and @EMAN.
That's the power of word of mouth, social media, advertising and influencers.
Hi Beta, happy to concede I'm wrong and that March and April were cash flow positive if that's the case but I don't understand your logic for suggesting they were. March and April had very similar US Box Office to the average for the second half of 2021 - which was cash flow negative. So I don't see how you can be sure that isn't the case for March and April or how November gives 'a level of what monthly box office in the US Cineworld roughly needs to generate positive cash' since we don't now just how loss-making that month was.
It is always possible of course that other revenues have increased again and by enough to tip the balance for March and April but I think it unlikely. Regardless, at least I think we can agree that May WILL see positive cash flow and that June is likely to do so as well. The key thing therefore is that we agree that CINE appears to have turned the corner even if we don't agree on exactly when they did so.
And mountainous - I would say the buzz around Top Gun, the overall figures for May and the outlook for June has turned me from a 'cautious moderate' into a bullish one :)
@deltalo thank you very much for that, sounds very reassuring.
The ques for the food and drinks were about 5 deep in 4 isle’s, we were worried about missing the start of the film but no worries there as are film was booked to start at 4:30 but it didn’t start until 4;50, all the advertisements and up and coming film slate’s filled that time, Cineworld will get paid for the advertisements so I’m fine with that.
I must say this, that the age groups were mostly around my age at 48, some youngsters and some elderly, great to see such a wide age range. I loved it.
@Tegop, well said.
I am very much amongst the longs. But I would say that the ‘moderates’ can be split into two sub-categories. You have moderates that tend to look on the more bullish side, but are also extremely objective and well-articulated with their opinions (the likes of HNS and RS etc). You then also have the moderates who, let me say ‘err on the side of caution’ (the likes of FunInvestor and Hexam).
I don’t think either of them are derampers or shorters, just that their outlook and opinion of the company does not match mine. If disagreement didn’t exist then CINE would just be up and up and up every day, disagreement makes the stock market.
Either way, I am grateful for the contributions of everyone (unless they’re an obvious deramper). I think everyone is aware of the risks that exist here; the majority of people here are just like myself (waiting for a rise and down considerably), so I guess we just have to wait and look out for a rise :)
@hexam; you state march and april were loss making, I am sorry, but I need to correct you. They were break even or at best slightly positive cash flow generation. October 2021 & December were positive, whilst november was negative. The latter gives you a level of what monthly box office in the US Cineworld roughly needs to generate posirive cash, which corresponds to March & April 2022
@lpd, good evening, I did see your comments about booking early. The issue is that my unlimited card is for a certain group of cinemas only and the 4DX one is out of that group, so if I’d like to go for 4DX I can only go in person on the day and book in that way.
It’s a shame, I wish CINE would make a more efficient way of paying the uplift necessary online so I can book in advance, but hey ho.
Come on lpd let's not go back down this road.
History here shows that the petty squabbling which myself played a big part in is no good to anyone.noone likes to read it and it deflects from what the board is here for , I needed telling once (or twice)
In the past you have suggested people should have better things to do then posting on here all day yet here you are in the top 10 on lse with most posts. How many the last 30 days?
In the past you have suggested you can tell when people are invested and not invested due to posting style and frequency, can we presume you sold out of cineworld as you went very quiet for months and now reinvested due to your sharp increase in postings here.
This post isn't about scoring points or nit picking far from it, but we can all come to silly Conclusions based on posts and frequency , not all are correct.
I for one believe fun investor is and continues to be invested in cineworld , like yours I value his opinion.
Wasn't it yourself that suggested instead of looking at why cineworld didn't release a rns on the official appeal date we should concentrate on the films to be released and back to buissnes.
Maybe listen to that same advice because I for one am enjoying reading the fantastic news yourself , fun investor , cruis and all the others that have took time to post links etc on better times that cineworld are having buisness wise , and would rather not go back down the lines of Petty squabbles and using posts to score points.
Just my opinion obviously
There is a cacophony of voices in this board.
There are the Longs, the moderates, and the shorts.
I do not mind the moderates playing devils advocate to keep our expectations in check.
Then there is squid who is actually rooting for monkeypox.
"and everybody on here can formulate their own opinions on your duplicitious posting style"
I have and personally I see nothing duplicitous at all.
The "Difference" is that May looks like it could be a profitable and cash generating month. April and March were not.
The "Difference" is that Top Gun has created a buzz not seen since Spiderman and for a non-superhero movie since heaven knows when.
The "Difference" is a very good month looks like it is going to be followed by another very good month given the line up in June.
The "Difference" is that I think we have finally reached a genuine turning point rather than the false dawn of December and the OK (but still well short of where we need to be) March and April.
Anybody that doesn't consistently say "everything is awesome" gets slated by a small hard-core group of rampers on this board. It's a shame as the people most worth listening to are generally the ones that WILL change their tone as the situation changes - not those who just big it up all the time regardless - or equally those that talk it down whatever the news.
Rant Over - Football Starting.
Sorry to hear that mountainous although I was trying to tell all it was filling up and those leaving it slightly late might be disappointed. Hopefully you get to remedy things next week although I have agree with Cruis in that there might not be too much of a drop off due to the calibre of the film, word of mouth and probably people rebooking in the premier formats. I was checking evening VIP showings also and it was maxxed.
The one thing I am not is a sad individual and everybody on here can formulate their own opinions on your duplicitious posting style. You'll find most bulletin boards do exactly the same.
Btw you are perfectly welcome to trawl my whole posting history. I post with integrity.
Off out to the pub to watch the Champions League final.
LPD, I stand by that and my other comments.
If you can link us details of months the company has achieved its base case in US and the months that have had similar numbers of releases to pre pandemic then I will review my previous statements gladly.
I remain here in "hope" for better to come.
I remain invested.
I last sold/bought shares in this company some time further back than yourself.
Share Price has fallen from £1.24 to 24p all the time you refuse to accept any posts noting company and industry difficulties.
You truly are a sad individual.
I feel no need to trawl your back catalogue as I am not a child. :-)
Evening FI, People have been confidently pointing out improving box office to you in March and April and also for this month whilst all you have been doing on here is rattling off negative posts and falling short of Base case scenarios and lack of depth. Below is one of your posts from only 6 days ago. Maybe you forget what you write on here. Now trying to ramp the share you were talking down. Maybe you could explain why the difference. I can hazard a good guess.
"FunInvestor
Posted in: CINE
Posts: 5,052
Price: 22.96
No Opinion
RE: Dowton abbey doing ok22 May 2022 17:50
Yes, those movies that do release are starting more and more to "do ok".
Unfortunately still not enough of them and few doing far beyond expectations.
Combined this results in yet another sub par month.
We are now a year in from re-starting business and the North American market in particular is a long way off pre COVID level's (levels the company will want to be at to enable it to turn finances around).
US market for industry really we want to be seeing minimum $200m/week (not just the odd week) week in week out."
Tried to watch it yesterday but my only option for 4DX was an early evening showing. The entire thing was packed solid. Only a few seats here and there and they were between other people, front row was occupied as well from what I can remember.
Will have to try and get a seat during the week, but it’s looking very good indeed. Better than Dr Strange imo, will be interesting to see how the box office performs over the weekend.
Just got back from watching it and I still can't get the goofy grin off my face watching it.
Brilliant film.
Had a drink in the Cine bar afters and saw many, shall I say 'silver surfers' going to watch this which will hopefully give them the cinema bug back.
Saw it in IMAX and the sound there was unbelievable.
Gave me goosebumps.
Add in the shared experience, laughter in parts and emotional bonding and that should convince many that there's no way you'd get that experience at home.
Shake Cineplex off our backs and we're home free.
I see reports of an estimated c. $220m 4 day Friday - Monday total box office for Memorial weekend.
That could see us end month in the $750 - $775m ballpark and by some way our best month outside Spiderman December since re-opening.
It would also be far nearer our base case levels (overperformance in other revenue streams could well mean we achieved it effectively).
Due to timing in month of TG release with Jurassic , Buzz and Elvis all next month I full expect similar or better there too.
Let's hope this builds momentum and we get releases for the quieter late summer/autumn months.