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CEO: "Matrix, go google inflation"!
Matrix: "Here... Now provide your source"
CEO: "Yikes! OK mine was just speculation/interpretation!"
LOL
Here's my speculation: CEO is just a trader. He sold and now want re-enter CHAR on the cheap, and he'll ramp this to the moon once succeeded. Always take his comments with a massive pinch of salt.
I think guessing what the project might cost is reasonable, so far we have had a range of 300 million plus 10-25% suggested by most on this forum and almost 1billion suggested by Bob based on the cost of products from his local DIY store, all voices are welcome here as if we only hear the positives we make it an echo chamber and that's no good for any of us. I do hope Bob is wrong but if he isn't then trying to warn us is admirable....to confirm my stance I'm a lth who sides with a small increase in the capex inline with what industry experts have suggested
CEO don't let the "boom brigade" drive you off the board, stand strong CEO!!!
Seems like the only posters who don't get "lynched" are the ones who constantly post "this is going stratospheric" "we're heading to the moon" "boom" etc, etc..... (Jimmy23 I am not including you in that statement)
If you don't like what CEO has to say and can't engage in a civil manner just hit the filter button.... Simples
CEO
Mate, you're becoming a bore. Give it a rest, please
Jimmy, is best to just filter some of the muppets here ;
- Excellent quality dry gas confirmed, with greater than 96% methane, in all seven discovered gas reservoirs, without detrimental impurities such as H(2) S or CO(2) , supporting minimal gas processing required in the development.
-- Highly consistent gas composition potentially allows all gas produced from the different reservoirs to be processed through a single gas processing facility, enabling a simple development.
-- Further analysis is ongoing on the well data to understand the positive implications on gas resources, and scale and economics of the development.
Uh oh ..... the Grim Reaper has awoken !
bbb, i thought you would be watching re runs of love island rather than running through my posts. fyi, which really I don't need to disclose given that there are real reprobates here, i'm currently in the process of evaluating my investment which is reaching a critical decision and hence the posts. while i do this, i will post as needed to get opinions and interpretations from other avatars. my advice to those who can't handle a different opinion or different interpretation of the 'facts' while i go through this process is to use the filter.
Ceo b
I see no evidence for your unsupported assumption that capex for anchois has risen from $300 million to $1billion.
What we do know is what’s stated in the rns is that the npv for 361 bcf of proven gas is $900 million net to chariot.
Let’s stick to verifiable facts.
Jimmy
bbb, just for you....xxx
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yOnXe8ttmjY
matrix, did you actually read these articles and looked at the dates? all pre russian conflict and when the ruble was 50% below it is now.
All right Bob, we're done here.
Tin*
Motives*
Baib,
I feel like you need to take the time foil hat off, open some prosecco, run a bath, drag the tele to the door and watch some love island - chill out hun. What a drama queen! Absolute lol central. You've been relentlessly scare mongering this stock non stop since that rns landed. I read what you say for entertainment only as truly believe you have other notices a foot. God knows what your game is
i tried, but that saying is so true - you can take a horse to water, but you can't make it drink.
matrix, do you know why they got those costs for 2022?.... it's because they had contracts that were signed well before 2022. also, it material stock the suppliers had on shelves that predate 2022. i can assure that new stock to replace new stock will be aligned with current commodity prices and energy costs.
Alright, since you haven't provided any proof or sources to substantiate your claims, I'm assuming you don't want to have a sincere and civil conversation about Chariot's costs of development, that's fine, no worries there. Perhaps people will now take your anecdotal evidence and insults to their intelligence less seriously.
matrix, have you been popping the blue pills? it's the red ones you should be taking. i said cost have double at a minimum. do you want a link on arithmetic. maybe, i need the blue pills - do have any going spare?
'at worst this is no more than 50% off, and it's still an extra $200 million'
Your argument for a 300% increase in upstream capex in one year is a 13 year old article about hyper-inflation in Zimbabwe?
CEObob, the article below describes the current upstream cost situation for Norways north-sea drilling activities. It dates from January 2022. Those prices are similar to today, if not lower. They have determined a 5-20% increase in costs, with the main culprit being inflation, but also supply chain issues and logstics. Their total costs increased from $91 billion to $97.5 billion through 2026.
https://www.offshore-energy.biz/subsea-tie-back-leader-facing-inflation-driven-cost-increase-of-6-5-billion/
Next, Permian E&P forecasts a 15% increase in capex through 2022. I won't bother you with the details:
https://www.naturalgasintel.com/feeling-inflation-pinch-permian-eps-targeting-further-efficiency-gains/
Third, Enverus Intelligence Research calculated a 22% increase in upstream capex costs in North America: https://www.enverus.com/newsroom/capex-burndown-22-increase-in-north-american-land-upstream-capital-spending/
Another article, detailing the increase in capex by almost 20% in 2022:
https://www.compressortech2.com/news/oil-and-gas-firms-expected-to-boost-capex/8017785.article
Slightly outdated by a few months, Rystad energy expects a 10% increase in EPCI (Engineering, Procurement, Construction and Installation) costs through 2023, due to supply chain issues and inflation: This has likely increased by now:
https://www.compressortech2.com/news/oil-and-gas-firms-expected-to-boost-capex/8017785.article
The upstream O&G industry does not shift operational costs based on fluctuating raw material costs and volaitle commodity futures, at least not in the time frame that Chariot is planning on developing the field.
Please provide your own sources so we can discuss them.
matrix, try doing a google on 'inflation'. if you can wrap your head around that, then try 'quantitative easing'. and if you can get both concepts you'll be able to read below.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2008/oct/09/zimbabwe
m, are you living in a bubble?.....let me see if the pice of commodities has changed since 2019 - gas prices have doubled, lithium has gone up x10, iron ore/steel has doubled, copper has doubled...do you see a pattern? what's your excuse for denying the obvious?...have you tried to buy building materials lately? nearly everything has tripled.
.....i bought osb board before covid and it cost me £11 a sheet and now selling for £35, pei
Your numbers are wild Bob. Got a source for all that wild speculation or do you have an agenda?
jimmy, thanks for entertaining me.
1) from what i can see this figure of £250m for development is from 2019/2020 . that's doubled at a minimum for now.
2&3) regarding number of wells, it comes back to cpr report - if the field is bigger, cost of pipeline will increase as you'll want something bigger to cope with more wells - you won't want to lay a pipeline where you will be limited to two wells when you can have 4 to 10 more. this increases cost of facility as everthing has to be upgraded...add another £200 million to point 1.
Adding everything from 1 to 3, and costs have gone up to £700 million and thats before signing anything - add a further inflation at 30% when/if gas prices go over $15 this winter, and you add another £200 million of capex costs and you are not far off £1 billion. at worst this is no more than 50% off, and it's still an extra $200 million.
Hi CeoB,
To answer your questions,
1. I don’t know when chariot prepared the $300 million, but it would certainly have included the cost of the producer anchois 2 which has now been drilled and suspended as a producer. Certainly saving $20 million of the $300 million capex. What we do know is that chariot updated its npv for 361 bcf recently to $900 million based on 70k mcf per day.
2. Chariot recently stated that they intended to get to production as quickly as possible using two existing wells. I expect that in time they will add a third well but will be paid from cashflow and will increase daily production above 70k mcf per day.
3. I expect the pipeline costs to have increased , would not expect capex to increase more than 25% to 30% , easily manageable
Jimmy
Ceo,
This is being delayed to allow family and friends in.
Who are these investors who came in? Any guess and if they now hold more than 3% will they report it?
My guess is once all these capital raising is done the CPR will suddenly appear like magic.