The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Simple maths is value the company at what price the deal is done, end off = Historic valuation.
Advanced maths is value the company on a prospective basis in which case the valuation for CGNR on a prospective basis is multiples of what it is now. Prospective definition speaks for itself and comes with risk.
He who dares wins.
Look at what GGP got for Havieron and look at the value now after the major completed a load of work. Having less of something with a major involved adds more value imo as the major is generally better at getting stuff done hence the valued added by this deal is huge imo.
I'd actually be quite positive here if the company puts out a strong strategy announcement setting out the plans for the JV. It could firm up in the low 30s which is a great result considering this was sub 10p for a long time before JV announcement in July 2020.
The math is simple.
That's the value agreed by the JV. Now the company needs to deliver results.
So because Demir are paying 10m euros for a 40% stake so that means the asset is worth 25m euros? Rubbish. That is not reflective at all of the value of the asset. It's the price cgnr had to pay to bring in a major partner.
I am buyer on that prospective valuation of CGNR.
Seems like a rational level until newsflow builds confidence in the stated strategy of the JV to develop Clontibret.
Thanks for that DeathStranding. So your valuation of 12.5m is not a prospective valuation (i.e not including the gold resources you mentioned in your last message here) but a historic valuation done on the last deal with Demir. Got it.
Cheers
The JV is over the Clontibret licence, 9 other Irish licences and 2 licences in Northern Ireland.
The JORC resource estimate for Clontibret is 517,000 ounces of gold at 2 g/t (320,000 ounces in Indicated, 197,000 ounces in Inferred category).
Deathstranding. So only Clontibret licenses are mentioned in the JV. So the current valuation while the gold is in the ground of the company is 12.5 on that alone. None of the Northern Ireland licenses are mentioned and the gold has not been taken out of the ground yet.....Understood. How much is the actual proven gold JORC so far at Clontibret?
Nighth4wk Demir are paying €10 million for a 40% interest valuing CGNR's 60% interest at €15 million, or £12.5 million.
Parkez I couldn't say what anyone thought and don't know what was said, but presumably the company genuinely expected a re-rate on the back of the JV with buy in to the speculation value.
DS, how do you get that 12.5m Valuation?
So DS, you are saying he thought 50p was unobtainable yet put that incentive in to attract investors?
50p would have been a huge premium to expect when he'd just signed a JV valuing CGNR's interest at £12.5 million!
Still waiting for drilling results mentioned 12th Aug...although could still be drilling.
Accelerated drilling programme supposedly started 4th Jan...why no confirmation.
As I said before Dec 31 st cut off for the Profs ramping...now there's one bloke that was expecting 50p by end of last year..so if he can't predict the sp then our guesses are worth absolutely sod all.
Let's hope for something soon....boredom setting in deeper daily.
I agree with others here that the licence transfer would be positive news but also just a formality so can't see going unconditional having a major impact on price. News about the JV plans and / or updates on drilling that may or may not already be underway will be positive and could lead to firmer prices but I just don't see the justification for the re-rating that you expect until solid sets of results start to come in consistently and regularly over time from a project development programme.
Deathstrand that prediction is based on news coming in terms of drilling + possibly getting the unconditional signing, if these two things happen in the next 4 weeks 45p in my opinion is a super reserved estimate to where we will be. How ever with no news or results or signing the price will probably not go any where near there just yet..
DS in what capacity do you post on here? I don't know if you have shares or have sold them but if you don't have any confidence in cgnr why are you here? The transfer of licences is a formality. As for what resources are in the ground Demir wouldn't bother with this if they had your outlook. Why don't you just go elsewhere or is this your sad idea of fun?
That would be a 64% increase on today's price - based on what? There's been no update yet on what the plans are.
thinking this will bounce back to around .45 by End of Feb /March
Surely we should get some sort of news, update, rns in the next week or two? Im hopeful for the unconditional signing in the next 4 weeks..