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The $ 60 million half year profit can be seen in the interim half year accounts.
Sorry my stupidity but where did you read the $60m profit for the first half? My second point below that you refer to was predicated on this year's earnings per share being quite a bit below the average eps of 11cents over the last 5 years when ave share price has been about 140, all best
Sotolo. The half year showed net profit of approx $60 million , which equates to 5.16 cents...if you simply double up then it will be approx 10 cents .. not unreasonable assumption, production should be up slightly in second half of year and gold price stable .
I don't understand your comments about earlier years .
I am pointing out that EPS this year of 10 cents with a current share price of £0.94 is an extremely low share price in comparison to years 2017 to 2019 when EPS only averaged 7 cents per year ..but the share price during those years averaged much higher than the current share price of £0.94
Hope that clarifies things
So does Candid or Sotolo need to sharpen their pencils, I wonder, but couldn't possibly comment!
Now where is that top hat?
Well Paul ""You might very well think that; I couldn't possibly comment!"
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Oz8RjPAD2Jk
Candid so this is based on you estimating net profits of $115m, (10c per share)? I am estimating rather less so when you say the share price was higher with higher profits, which seems strange, I think it is based on a rather optimistic calculation for profit this year so our share price won't be lower than previous tears with higher profits now, but lower with lower profits that makes more sense. Of course I hope you are right on your optimistic eps but can't see how?
Yes Mr Bond ----and hopefully we will start to get the production figures up sooner rather than later. I still have a feeling (HOPE!) that Martin Horgan will pull a rabbit out of the hat.
I over ran on my previous message ...the point I was making was that once the new year commences , the honeymoon period for the current management team will be over , and it will be solely on them to deliver .
I am reserving my judgement on them until they do
Paul, you forget that when production rises the profit rises.
Given Gold doesn't drop back to $1050 as was the case in the past.
But even then the company made a profit, even though it was still claiming back investment in plant from EMRA.
So realistically speaking CEY has far less to worry about than most. Having new prospects lined up,one would expect at lest another find.
Imo.
Just a few comments on the fundamentals
1. People including myself pay attention to absoloute dividends , because once they are given , they cannot be taken away , unlike the whim of a companies share price which can take it away in less than a day, albeit on paper only, if the share is held .
2. It does, however , need to be borne in mind that there is an opportunity cost of dividends paid out , in that the amount paid ..(in this year's case $105 million planned) is now unavailable to fund future capex. I think from memory , this amounts to $230 million in the next 12 months , which can be funded more or less out of cash profits, but that means that the cash dividend ($ 105 million) will have to come out of the $ 300 million cash held in the bank , these are only approx figures as I haven't gone through the numbers in detail, but the principle remains . I do though seem to remember the FD saying at the capital events briefing , that their estimates assume that the cash held will fall by approx $100 million ..which equates to the amount of the dividend proposed .
3. Yes the CEO did acknowledge the importance of dividends for shareholders, but that isn't the same as saying that they will be held at their current level , so don't get too carried away .
4. When I talk about the fundamentals being strong , that is on the basis that I estimate EPS for the current year will be around 10 cents ..it has to be pointed out that in the 3 years from 2017 to 2019 the EPS was only 8 cents , 6 cents and 7 cents , so this year will still be better than those by some margin , yet the share price in those years averaged more than what it is now.
Last year when the EPS was 15 cents for example , the share price leapt up to £2.29 very quickly , so once they can get back to the previous production levels and assuming that the gold price holds good , then there is no reason why the share price shouldn't move up significantly from here ..
Furthermore when you add in future gold finds , which based on the judgements of the geologists on this site is highly likely , then the outlook for future share prices is looking very favourable indeed .
5. A key point which might have gone unnoticed, is that the quarter on quarter unfavourable production comparisons to previous year has now gone through its full course .. From herein the comparisons with the prior year should now all be positive . In the final quarter of last year for example , the production was only 70,000 ounces, even using a conservative estimate for this current quarter production , will show a 50% improvement on the equivalent quarter for last year ..think how that will go down in the markets when that is announced ..it should though also be pointed out that the full year comparison will still be unfavourable , which might cast a shadow over the 4th quarter result.
One final point , when the new year begins, the honeymoon period for the new senior management team will be over, and they must del
Unfortunately even those with the best intentions and considerable investment in the company The Man on the train & Siko's contact) quite rightly trusted those running operations at the time in the company, unfortunately like us they were not given the full and truthful facts about the corner cutting and glossing over at Sukari, as questioned in two Kess Dekker articles , both of which where denied by Pardey and to be fair many of us gave him the benefit of the doubt rather than Kees Dekker because it suited us to at the time if we are honest, lesson learned I hope!
All I will say is looking back to earlier times in the Sukari history, such as during the court case license dispute, fuel & explosive issues/revolutions and on various other issues the man on the train and Siko's contact were sources of some very useful factual information that assisted many of us to remain calm during turbulent times and able to make our own rational investment decisions which are still proving to be very successful if we are honest, even with the share price pull back!
SteveJones,
True long term investors seeking out a good dividend yield return are a special breed of investor with an emphasis on current income, clearly, for a reason: they are retired or coming up to retirement or diversifying their portfolio into value situations away from total reliance on high-priced, highly volatile growth stocks. One-off dividends are of little importance, but if a company can demonstrate a consistent dividend payment out of post-tax earnings, that will encourage certain investors to buy, accepting the risk that the dividend is no guarantee of future payment especially in a cyclical stock such as Cey.
Well Mr T, as I have said previously, various sources, from "your man on the train" to the person who told Siko "good times are coming" have been worng, largely I feel due to previous management. We know about it so no point banging on with it.
I/we could be wrong but I feel Martin Horgan is a decent chap and is taking things carefully and getting things in place.
If he can reduce costs, then that has the same result profit wise as gold going up. If gold goes up as well then that is even better. I think things may go steadily for a while longer, then as a result of the new licenses and the remedial work to the plie of dirt we will get things moving faster. I have been re investing dividends and hopefully in the not too distant future this will seem to have been a good move.
So---fingers crossed and good luck to the LTH here,
It would be unwise and improper, or possibly even illegal for various reason's to post some as yet unconfirmed facts, or information on this types of forum in the public domain, not least of which is not wanting to prematurely build up holders or potential buyers expectations on certain issues only for them to be dashed due to some unforeseen circumstances.
However what I will say is that to the best of my understanding at present there is certainly no intention by the management to change the dividend policy as the institutional and other fund holders are very much in favour of it, one of the reason's they opposed the Endeavor bid!
Also if fund managers and institutional holders weren't confident of the as yet unlocked true potential of Centanin, it's Sukari mine and other operations, or indeed and more importantly believed in Martin Horgan's professional abilities to release them, then why would they remain share holders ?
Obviously as I have said before anyone can be whomever they want to be on this type of forum,so I can appreciate why anyone may choose to doubt, disagree,disregard or just disbelieve my opinions but that said I remain very optimistic for the future of Centamin!
@Cherryburn: "I am looking forward to the next 6 to 12 months with this share if gold remains above $1750 per oz. "
Personally, I don't see many gold miners rising significantly until gold breaks above $1900. Sure, there might be some ups/downs, but they'll mostly trade in a range. Maybe they'll gradually start to drift higher if/when we break $1850.
That's just my opinion. It might be 100% wrong like all other opinions...
The average gold price bagged last month was probably 1770 ish. Centamin still holding that average as we start November. You would think this company is making a loss instead of bagging $500 an ounce mined and produced ($225 net profit). Around $7.5M profit for October alone. So they make 5.6p net profit at forward annualised rate. 19p a share is the cash they have in the bank. Removing the cash element to give 74p that equates to a forward PE on actual profit of 13.2p. Pre tax that is a 6.6 PE rate. Historically, CEY trades on 15PE post tax as a minima and 20 PE as a maxima. This gives a trading range of 103-117p on the forward earnings. It is a seriously undervalued stock against its own past trading ranges against its projected earnings.
It always amazes me how people focus on dividend yield, especially long term holders. I focus on the amount paid per share not the yield as sometime buy in just before ex-divi date, but only when I feel the stock is undervalued. Dividends can stop at anytime on any share and the lower the price the higher the yield % for an agreed cents per share divi. When an SP drops a lot(there are exceptions like the march2020 covid panic drop) there is obviously a greater chance of the divis being canx in the future leading to an even lower SP. People who hold purely for the divi are in just as much of a gamble situation, as if the divi is pulled and the SP is low, they’re stuck with a low SP.
Sotolo....I am looking forward to the next 6 to 12 months with this share if gold remains above $1750 per oz. Good to see you use "back of fag packet" for your calculations as I also hold BATS for div yield. !
Gut feel?
Great in-ground assets in Egypt and West Africa. Former Board and Mngt more liabilities
NOW
in-ground assets the same, Board conservative, Management far superior.
Result solid packaging, new management in place, aticulation, real leadership in place, but conservative and believable CEO
Likely result: Neighbours will get restlesss
Offers will emerge if there is not a re-rating by the market
Time period: <12 months
best
the gnome
ndeed the sideways tracking, and then good news, and then away we go. A Classic demonstrating this has been Apollo Consolidated in Western Australia, has crabbed along for years bwetween $0.15 and $0.30 for years, before that it nearly went under.., and then...the takeover offer 1...up 100%, then takeover 2, then counter offer...and still going on
https://simplywall.st/stocks/au/materials/asx-aop/apollo-consolidated-shares
Good inground assets, very conservative management and board, and thent hte neighbours got restless!
I have just bailed at $0.64, which is a good profit margin given I purchased between $0.05 and $0.2,.. maybe there is another 5-10%, maybe not ...
best
the gnome
As usual Candid quite agree, why I hold
Since 2016 the dividend has averaged 11 cents. This would equate to a yield of nearly 9%. However of course the market has lowered the share price as profits will be considerably lower and I expect the share to yield around 5% which would make a reduced dividend of around 8cents total, but of course this is with gold prices where they are now, lower or higher would change the expected profit or dividend. All done on the back of a fag packet with my rudimentary maths but basically lower but still a great yield as halved share price and halved yield give same divi.
What's the expected dividend yield in cey over the next 12 months, anyone?
Price has been depressed for a while now. We need it to move. Don't really care which direction as I wouldn't mind accumulating
I think we all suffer a little from impatience at wanting the share price to increase dramatically, on the back of no news . We tend to monitor the share price on a real time basis throughout the day and then be flustered when the price often falls instead
What I have found, and with this share in particular, is that it languishes along , for several months at a time, on a low valuation , and often , as at present falls even further..this in my view, is an ongoing over reaction to previous bad news and a serious loss of confidence in the company
Then a sudden piece of good news is released , or a batch of good news items and the price rockets up in just a couple of months maybe by 50% and more.
I think the wise thing to do, is to just sit and wait patiently for the re-rating to take place ..and when it does happen , ( and it will ) the move will be dramatic and sudden , however it might, as at present take a scenic route to get there .
For me it's a HOLD...the fundamentals are too compelling
Best Regards and as always DYOR