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Gold going forward
When the gold price is declining or consolidating, gold equities tend to underperform. Even when gold rallies, gold stocks can sometimes lag during the early stages of the rally while markets digest the new outlook for the metal. Something similar is happening during this recent bounce back in gold prices. The revenues and earnings generated by the companies at the end of August is essentially the same it was a month ago, yet the stocks are trading at lower prices, creating a value opportunity.
Gold has been consolidating its gains since reaching all-time highs of US$2,075 per ounce a year ago. It nearly broke out a couple of times this year but failed and, in early August, dipped below its bull market trend bottom of US$1,760. Since the current trend began in 2019, gold has always bounced higher when testing the bottom of its range.
We have been disappointed by the failure of gold to hold at such a critical support level and subsequently believe that, in the shorter term, it may spend longer than anticipated consolidating around the US$1,800-US$1,900 per ounce range. However, the upside is that gold was quick to rebound from this “flash crash” and so a show of continued resilience should help reestablish the bull market trend and allow us to look back on this event as just an insignificant blip.
In the longer-term, once this consolidation has run its course, we still see plenty of tail-risk drivers that have the potential to drive gold to US$2,000 per ounce and beyond. We believe inflation is a longer-term problem and will persist into 2022. Economic growth is at risk once the massive fiscal spending has run its course and is further threatened by the potential removal of monetary stimulus. Finally, extreme debt levels and asset bubbles may not be sustainable, creating a risk-off environment that favours gold.
Gold’s wild ride in August
Gold finished August trading at US$1,813.62 per ounce, nearly unchanged from its July finish at US$1,814.19 per ounce. It may seem August was an uneventful 31 days for gold as it only fell 57 cents (0.03%) but in reality, it was actually a rollercoaster. Gold experienced its first big price drop early in the month when July’s US jobs report came out and exceeded expectations. The dollar-positive news supported the case for continued strength in the US economic recovery, sooner-than-anticipated tightening by the US Federal Reserve Bank (Fed) and a decline in gold prices to a close of US$1,763.03 on Friday August 6.
At the start of Asian trading on the following Monday, at around 7:00 AM local time the gold market was flooded with massive sell orders. The selling appeared indiscriminate, as it ignored low liquidity on a day when Japan and Singapore were on holiday. Gold dropped US$60 in a matter of minutes, trading as low as US$1,690.61 per ounce, causing a breach in important technical support levels and, likely, triggering stop loss orders that further exacerbated the sell-off.
The “flash crash”, as the press referred to it, certainly called into question the market’s ability to block or prevent what has been interpreted as either a malicious attack on gold prices or a serious trading error. While these moves have the potential to be damaging to the gold market, this latest incident was priced out quickly. By the end of that same week, gold’s price had returned to levels that we believe reflect current fundamentals.
The presidents of the Dallas and Boston Federal Reserve’s were partying harder than most, and agreed they may have been overdoing it? A conscious in the Fed Reserve...??!!! Nah...
While these public officials had repeatedly filed notices (profit, loss, what traded when?)on their trading activity each year, the brazen hyperactivity on display was extraordinary.
The Dallas Fed president Robert ****** averaged about 25 instances of million dollar plus stock trades a year, usually entering and exiting stocks from Alibaba to credit ETFs within a 12-month period.
Meanwhile, the Boston Fed’s Eric Rosengren bought into several real estate funds. This was all allowed under the rules, but wasn’t a great look.
Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Federal Reserve, has invested in real estate funds.
So last week, they decided to halt their trading on ethical grounds, and shut their trading accounts. By the end of the month, they will convert their holdings into passive funds. And then possibly influence to benefit (who?), and the game is the same?
Quite a conflicted little affair in the top end of town, by people who should know a lot better...and not look to benefit of what they know in the market investment strategies.
“What we have now is an ethics system built on a very narrow conception of what a central bank is and should be,” said Peter Conti-Brown, a Fed historian at the University of Pennsylvania. The Fed business has changed and what a business it is...
Bit they have to earn a bob, and are underpaid by the day job LOL
best
the Gnome
Hi George
From memory directly in putting into the LSE trading platform.
You purchased £9000 odd pounds in CEY. lets say at 95.35. through your broker. From memory but I dont think the rules have changed that much your broker has 5 minutes to register that purchase in the LSE trading platform (the book) If it was larger then NMS normal Market Share then he could put it into the book(the LSE trading platform ) later and after trading closed at 4.30PM However during your trade at 95.35 the ticker price jumped to say 96 .5 the when it got entered it would show as a sell. Unless you have level2 access or the facility to trade the other side of the book then only believe the broker note you must have received regarding your purchase. It always saddens me to see these queries crop up as the LSE has some good advice . Manipulation of the book is quite regular as well as putting a buy order in at say 100p and then retracting it is quite common and skews the bid ask scenario. and can convert sells to buy and vice versa.
Not sure this helps but at the price you invested in CEY hopefully you will see a handsome return in the long run.
Kind regards
Bob
Thank you Cowichan for your insights, skills and willingness to chase -very minor from me. Great other questions raised .
I just hope they are better to provide transparency and deal with the prior performance failings of both the board and cey SP performance (I mentioned). Then we can all start to move forward if not these continue to need to be addressed.
Bests to all
For sending your question(s) in to investor relations.
I received a similar reply from Alex - restating facts which shareholders already know i.e. all the drill data available was used to calculate the Batie deposit update.
What investor relations continues to 'dance around' is the refusal of management to issue a maiden resource estimate for all the hundreds of thousands of meters drilled OUTSIDE of the Batie resource - namely in areas called Napelapara, Wadaradoo and others.
I am awaiting clarification regarding these areas but so far the first response I got was that these areas have been RELINQUISHED back into the control of Burkina Faso's department of mines. Which *could* mean all that drilling and expenditure was for nothing. Except they weren't for nothing. Some other explorer will (or has already?) reaped the benefit of those drill results.
Did a maiden resource estimate get shared with Endeavour mining 24 months ago? Were the concessions purposefully allowed to lapse so as to be available to another party? Was this the reason our previous CEO 'retired early?
As we know our previous CEO Andrew Pardey is not by any means retired - but now actively exploring West Africa (including Cote D'Ivoire) as Chairman of Tanga Resources.
As I say I've yet to hear if indeed these concession areas have truly been relinquished back to the state or as I really hope - the info I received was not accurate - the exploration concessions are simply pending renewal.
Will management actually address this long outstanding issue next week?
I have submitted it as my question - not once but several times.
I don't see any good reason or see that it is the best it in the interests of the company or genuine share holders to reply to chat forums because the members can claim to be whomever they want to be and there is no way of the company being able to verify identities of the enquirers or their real motives.
It is far more appropriate and and safer of all parties concerned that any enquiry submitted to to a company should include the full name address and contact details of the enquirer, also the company is under more obligation to respond.
It is then up to the individual to decide whether or not to disclose that information in the public domain.
I doubt very much that you will see replies to share holders questions posted directly on any of these type of forums by the investor relations department of any company that is behaving responsibly.
Hi Rebess,
Glad you did say , seems quite remarkable on first impressions 12% Divi in these times isn't to be sniffed at especially as announced on the BBC retail prices up 3.2% and rising!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-58563417?at_medium=RSS&at_campaign=KARANGA
Some of that rise reflected genuine factors too. In particular, we are now seeing the effects of higher global shipping costs and shortages of staff driving up food price inflation."
She also expects, however, that the cost of living could continue to increase rapidly, with inflation exceeding 4% by November.
Yael?Selfin, chief economist at KPMG UK, added: "Higher inflation will inevitably raise questions for the Bank of England on the timing of tightening monetary policy and interest rate hikes to contain inflationary risks further down the line."
She added: "However, any tightening now risks scuppering the recovery before it has a chance to take hold, so a delay until the middle of next year is likely."
UK businesses are reporting difficulties in sourcing goods and recruiting staff because of disruption caused by the pandemic and problems such as HGV driver shortages, exacerbated by Brexit.
According to a survey of 2,000 people by Retail Economics, more than half of consumers are concerned about rising costs as a result.
The market research firm said on Wednesday that worries about the cost of living had reached their highest point in more than five years.
In August this year, transport costs also increased.
Average petrol prices stood at 134.6 pence a litre, compared with 113.1 pence a litre a year earlier, when travel was reduced under lockdown restrictions.
Used car prices were also partly to blame for price rises - they increased by 4.9% in just one month. Since April, they have gone up by more than 18%
Thank you Mando and no worries...I use HL..
At the time there was lots of small volume trades shown and in comparison mine was relatively large and then low and behold it then dissapeared off the listing and when I looked back there were 2 similar trades both shown as sells..
As an aside thanks again there are lots of genuine people on this site who are willing to help others who share a similar interest for trading and you are one of them so Thanks again and good luck with your trading
Rgds
George
Dividends is a much talked about subject on this thread.
I've just been looking at a share this morning - Montanaro European Smaller Companies Trust. - MTE.
Since 2015 the SP has grown 400% and on top of that they have paid an average annual dividend yield of 12%.
Just Saying.
Quite so Mr Gnome,
Martin Horgan is adamant in his belief that it is all the share holders that own the business and whatever the number of sharers held they all have the right to be heard by the management board and their opinions and questions treated with with equal importance.
I understand it only a very small number of UK based staff who are self isolating at present due to contact with others and so are now working from home until they get the all clear.
So this may well be why replies to recent enquiries are taking longer.
HI George. Sorry, the system is not that sophisticated unfortunately. I'm using TradingView.com which costs me about $300/year. I'm not a pro-trader. I just use it to help manage my private investments. If a number of trades are done within the same minute, it combines buys and sells to show a red/green candlestick with the volume shown as green/red depending if overall the price ended higher or lower during that minute vs the previous minute.
Looking at the minute charts on 9th Sept 14:02 uk time I see as follows:
14:02 Vol 2.04k. Open 93.54; High 93.54; Low 93.50; Close 93.50
14:03 Vol 567. Open 93.48; High 93.48; Low 93.48; Close 93.48
14:04 Vol 16k. Open 93.48; High 93.52; Low 93.48; Close 93.52
This doesn't seem to tally with your trade or the pricing at the time. What trading platform are you using? Is your broker added their commission to your price as these are actual market prices I quote here. Hope this helps though.
I remember Pardey addressing the conference and telling one lie after another. - IMO, it's not what's said that counts.
Don't tell me - 'SHOW ME'.
Hi Guys
I sent an email requesting they are open and transparent and answers should be provided to LSE members . Response below.
With regards to our assets in Burkina Faso, please see the attached the announcement we made on 27th May 2021. Pages 4 and 5 of the announcement outline the results of our review of the Batie West Project including a mineral resource update which was calculated using all available drilling data up until 1 Jan 2021. For further background on the project, please visit our website: https://www.centamin.com/assets/batie-west-project/.
We value the importance of being open and transparent with our shareholders and are always happy to address questions and concerns raised by our investors. Centamin will be hosting a Geology Capital Markets Event (details attached) on Thursday, 23 September to update the market on our exploration programmes. In addition, we are planning to host a Retail Investor Event (date to be confirmed) to create an open forum with our retail community and address any outstanding questions. Once we have the finalised details of that event, we will issue an announcement and questions raised by our investors will be included in the Q&A.
At least a response
I have added your email address to our email alerts list to receive Centamin news and other financial information.
Some major Industrial equity trends/indexes are going horziontal or down.“We reckon that China’s zero-covid strategy could be increasingly costly for the Chinese economy,” Nomura economist. Not alone, in Oz, the Banks are getting shoved into lending to small business...
Major U.S. stock indexes rose after the opening bell before turning lower. The market has broadly pulled back this month amid concerns that rising cases of the Delta variant of Covid-19 could weigh on economic activity and that stocks have rallied for too long without a correction. The S&P 500 has now declined in six of the past seven trading sessions.
The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note fell sharply on Tuesday’s inflation data, dropping to 1.276% from 1.323% Monday. Yields fall when bond prices rise.
BEIJING—Growth across a range of Chinese economic indicators pulled back sharply in August, as a new outbreak of the Covid-19 Delta variant and tighter government regulations on the property market hit consumer spending and the housing sector.
Retail sales, a key gauge of China’s consumption, rose just 2.5% in August from a year earlier, down sharply from July’s 8.5% year-over-year growth, according to data released Wednesday by China’s National Bureau of Statistics. The result marked the lowest pace of growth in a year and missed by a large margin the 6.3% increase expected by economists polled by The Wall Street Journal.
Mando
A favour...Any chance you can look back on your software to check a transaction for me....Last Thursday at approx 1402hrs I bought £9999 worth of shares at approx 95.35...I was unable to view this transaction as a Buy ....but could only see 2 trades of similar amounts displayed as a sell?
No problem if you cannot help here but ATB
Thanks Mr T.
They are not investors, they are owners of the business. If the owners of the business
cannot be bothered with following the progress of the business and asking the tough pertinent questions of mngt, then good luck to them. This kind of behaviour does lead to lax management though....what goes around comes around...so to speak
So speak up, get the critical questions onto the table and into the forum...now.
best
the gnome.
Major European stock markets traded slightly above the flatline during Wednesday's premarket session as investors awaited August inflation data for the United Kingdom.
The UK was also the main focus of yesterday's trading following the government's decision to start administering COVID-19 booster shots to eligible groups starting from next week.
The DAX inched up by 0.05% at 7:15 am CET, while the FTSE 100 increased by 0.08% and the CAC 40 stood slightly in the green. Both the euro and the pound traded flat against the dollar at 7:25 am CET to sell for 1.18033 and 1.38029, respectively.
Breaking the News / ND
Happy hump y’al
For those devotees of gold AND crypto, the latest offering coming soon ...
https://aabbgoldtoken.com/aabb-gold-token/
best
the gnome
Hi Mr Gnome,
Glad to hear that you received your reply, I understand replies to investors have been delayed because of some temporary disruption in normal service due to the self isolation of the relevant staff unfortunately coinciding with the Denver conference and sudden upsurge in received enquires from existing and potential new investors.
I'm sure we all send our best wishes to the members of staff concerned and hope they make a full and speedy recovery to full health and despite this interruption in normal service also start to feel uplifted about the invigoration of retail and institutional investor interest in Centamin!
it's also very encouraging to learn that more retail investors are making the effort to write to Centamin!
Possibly soon time to think about dusting off the golden flips flops!
Tibbs
Well I was too quick! Response below
"Thank you for your questions. These are very timely, because
1) Centamin will be hosting a Geology Capital Markets Event (details attached) on Thursday, 23 September where questions 1-3 will be discussed [see announcement of Sept 9], and
2) Centamin are planning to host a Retail Investor Event (date to be confirmed) to create an open forum with our retail community and address any outstanding questions. Once we have the finalised details of that event, we will issue an announcement and these questions will be included in the Q&A.
Specifically with regards question 5, I have pasted the below slide from our latest investor presentation (s12)(https://www.centamin.com/investors/presentations-webcasts/), which details some of the many key cost savings iniatives."
My apologies for being so fast out of the blocks...c u on Sept 23!!!
best
the gnome
I got an auto reply...see below LOL.
Thank you for your email, should your message relate to a job or working enquiry please re-send your email to working@centaminplc.com so that it processed by our Human Resources team. Please note that you will not receive a response regarding your application from this mail box.
Thank you and good luck.
Human Resources Department
Hi Mr T
I have sent another email with an upgrade in my questions...and copy to info@centaminplc.com
I have previously tried contacting your "HEAD OF CORPORATE COMMUNICATIONS" but so far have not even had a 10 second, "yes we have your questions and will revert", which is very disturbing and unprofessional, hence I thought I would try another email.
I have several questions which I would like your company to answer. The answer can be made public, and I would prefer in writing, but happy to take a call
to clarify questions.
1. What portion of your Exploration budget will be spent on near mine versus new mine discovery?
2. What portion of your "new mine discovery" budget will be directed at new mines in Egypt, versus new mines out of Egypt?
3. What are your plans for creating value in the short term from the assets you hold in West Africa, and what do you see as the most significant risks in achieving these (and how do you plan
to manage such risks?)
4. What efforts is the company going to, to assess acquisition and merger opportunities? Is this formalised and are management/ staff accountable for this, or otherwise?
5. What are the major cost saving initiatives being put in place now and in the next 3 years?
6. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 1 year, and given that this would entail several initiatives, can you prioritise the initiatives.
7. CEY is undervalued now, how does the board plan to create value in the next 5 years.
8. Your Investor Relations Manager is supposedly Alexandra Carse.Head of Corporate Communications and email is investor@centaminplc.com. If this is correct why does it take 2 days for the person not to acknowledge receipt of my email?
Needs improvement, to say the least. MIght try Youssef next?
the gnome
Thanks Mr T
Still not even a 10 second acknowledgement of the emial from the "INVESTOR RELATIONS" ""MANAGER""
A TRULY PATHETIC EFFORT BY ANY MEASURE, AND A TOTAL FAIL.
the Gnome
I think you are probably right about B/.F
I hope they will at least get the investment of time and money back, assuming they have a buyer in mind.
It could be they are hanging on there till a license is granted, that would surely improve the price for it.