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Hello again BIGBang - No need for you to apologise.- You stated your case very well with eloquence and articulation.
The fact that you offer apologies is big of you. Not many would do that. - Good luck.
I think you are bang on the button about this share .:-)
Having been approached almost continually about investing in corporate debt, been interesting to see wher we stand globally. Just not a good look. The ballooning edifice of corporate debt across the world is of ever lower quality and potentially more dangerous than it was at the outset of the Lehman crisis, the OECD club of rich nations has warned. Global issuance of corporate bonds has doubled to $US13 trillion ($18 trillion) over the last decade and standards have deteriorated dramatically, raising the risk of "fire sales" and a self-feeding chain reaction in times of stress.
Interesting times ahead.
Those companies that rely on debt to "maintain" the cashflow are likely to suffer some shocks. Banks in Oz are making the timing of loans blow out 3-400% now, same for housing. Much more onerous after the Royal Commission.... have a great affinity for companies with solid free cash flow, and cash in the bank right now.
As far as I understand it (and I am a Tiger of little brain), few PIs actually short. Rather, they gamble on the roulette wheel known as CFDs. This is, over enough time, mathematically speaking, certain financial suicide, just as playing on the roulette wheel in a real casino is.
My guess is that a few on them post on here and on ADVFN. I don't think they realise quite how big a company Centamin is; it's not an AIM tiddler driven by bulletin board sentiment. Some of them are claiming our share price will drop to 30p; i.e. the value of the cash Centamin have on hand!
In terms of big league players, I do think algos and professional shorters are in command of the share price at the moment. This will end, of course. Probably quite soon, given Centamin's fundamentals. But picking the exact bottom isn't easy.
Hi Tiger - That is my understanding that shorting is a complex undertaking, just as you describe. - And yet, according to some thread commentators, everybody's at it. - I don't think so.- Big players yes, but lower-league, the likes of us, I seriously doubt it. - But, that is just an opinion of course. - Anybody, please feel-free to rip me to shreds, for on a day when our market-cap continues to be destroyed, almost as though it was a strategic objective, the diversion will be welcome.
In the great India Pakistan War about 50 years ago which liberated East Pakistan and renamed it Bangladesh I flew into Dacca the capital in a two hour truce period to evacuate international embassy and non-combatant staff - we landed between the bomb craters and brought out several hundred very grateful refugees - the Indian Armed Forces had Dacca surrounded and were bombing the city daily - we flew the refugees back to Singapore and were met with crates of Tiger beer and telegrams from the Russian Mr Kosygin "The USSR is very proud of your achievement and thank you for saving the lives of our diplomats" and the Chinese Mr Chou En Lai " The Chinese people thank you for saving the lives of their citizens"
No medals for the RAF - the war was not a UK war !!!!
It is only when you see desperate people who were convinced they were going to die and who knew we could not land because the IAF had comprehensively bombed the airfield and then we airlifted them to safety that it gives a real sense of what is really important in life !
Score another one for the UK - Britain at its best !!
Constant Brexit dribble is driving the stock market valuations into the ground.
Hi Rebess, thank you for taking the time to reply. I had perhaps wrongly assumed that you were accusing anyone who had offered a comment re shorting of being a smart arse - I can see that I was probably quick to jump to conclusions. There is no list other than what information you can obtain on companies that are required to report their shorting position of which I am sure you are aware. Those companies do routinely employ people to go onto sites, often posing as holders to highlight the negative and often in a cleverly veiled way just talk the company down. There are also people who, as it has been pointed out, use leveraged CFD positions and become desperate - it would not serve their purposes well if they wrote to say ‘I am shorting please sell to help me,’so they post in a more veiled way. The net result is that genuine holders with genuine views, which are useful and relevant can be dismissed as shorters and that is unfortunate. I am pretty sure I have come across some of the former on the ACA site which is my normal stamping ground and perhaps have even held suspicions against genuine concerned holders who were caught up in the discussions potentially led by real shorters. It’s all just a sign of the times - I for one am interested in your comments and apologise for an misunderstanding.
Should think shooting down each other's planes will be looked upon as escalation of war and would be positive for POG.
Got to say, that this is something that never existed on this board until recently. Looks like it’s gone the way of others. Shame we’ve been dragged down to their level :-(
Hi BIGbangs - Ok - yes, fair comment. - I signed into three different threads yesterday two, were Centamin related, the other, an entirely different type of investment. In all three cases there were accusations between posters accusing the other of shorting because of the comments they had posted. It's becoming an everyday theme now to level accusations/insults at fellow posters on the grounds of shorting. I don't get this, how can anyone know that someone is shorting? Is there a site or index that lists all the details, numbers, values etc? What is even more curious is that since a very large percentage lose their money, I'm wondering why so many (supposedly) are engaged in it. BTW you will note that I avoided naming names and that my comments were general rather than specific. Have you accused anyone of shorting in your posting? If so, could you explain how you knew please.
One thing we should all recognise is that shorting is hard.
You've got extra fees to pay to the party who is lending you the stock to sell. You're time limited, so you can't just wait out an unfavourable market movement, as we longs can. Your losses are potentially unlimited. And all the time you're swimming against the tide that, in general, over a long period of time, most stocks will increase in value.
If you are shorting, you really really need to do your research, and even then the market can not behave the way you expect. (E.g. Like many other people, I've been convinced for over a year that Elon Musk's Tesla is hiding all kinds of nasty truths from the market, and that the company will end in bankruptcy. But if I'd gone short over this period, I would have lost money. Timing is everything.)
p.s. I make CEY hugely undervalued now, so I'm buying. For all I know it may drop further yet, but as a long, I'll just wait the dip out.
Rebess - Surely having knowledge does not mean we have shorted - just established what it was all about - Pistachio commented that he does not short companies but has made money by finding out how to short the FTSE and successfully done it. Gathering information and experience does not make us smart arses whilst burying ones head in the sand is unlikely to make you smart it shows that you lacked knowledge of a factor that significantly affects the market and this share. I don’t short and don’t like it but it is legal and some people use it to their advantage.
Just a further comment on shorting guys, I hope you don't mind. - I have an account with IG and every time I login I see a message at the base of the sign-in window. As follows:
'Warning, that spread bets and CFD's are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. 81% of retail investor accounts lose money when trading spread-bets and CFD's with this provider'.
Wow 81% lose - so, all the smart-arses we see commenting on these threads presenting as experts, must form the 19% that are the winners. We are so privileged to be able to share their wisdom. :-)
In my opinion the bounce happened yesterday up 5.5% at one point and was swiftly sold into. No evidence for a bounce sentiment is low and will only get worse until evidence to the contrary. Unless gold comes to the rescue again. We
Not going to argue with any of that but I think we are due a bounce, theres been some heavy buying over the last few days.
Many bought here thinking problems were behind centamin , they will remain unloved until concreate proof comes that they are back in the zone ..... until then higher costs and lower grade will impact ..... your discounting the current results from your head. The market and investors are rightly fuming with management ..... centamin got ahead of itself. We are 3% down already ....
Another 5 % off this week and we are in the 80’s .... are people that bad at maths nowadays or just wearing rose tinted glass’s. Nothing is driving this sentiment wise. The only thing that will save it is a fall in the found and a further rally in gold. My opinion only ....... I’m so mad with centamin but believe they will come good in a year or so.
When we saw 86-87 before the Gold price was 9% lower recovering from 10% lower and in a massive bearish channel.
I remember commentators back then touting Gold heading to $800-$900.
But if the shorters ramp up the pressure we could go lower.
I didn’t arrive at that as a target , I said personally I won’t be buying until 80 mark .... people don’t think it will get there however centamin is now overvalued , it’s about fair value at this price with the new information. To fall a further 9% would maybe need a little help from the pound gaining and the gold price pulling back. A fall back to 86-87 is where it was not so long back , granted on a lower gold price but all the same it’s not a stretch to arrive there soon then Q1 pre-Lims could be the catalyst for a further drop.
While Centamin is still licking its wounds it's worth looking at other drivers of gold and gold stocks over the next few days.
Firstly GDX the ETF for major and medium gold miners bottomed in September at $17.28. GDX broke out and above its 4 month bullish channel on the same day that the Jan Comex gold option expired on 28/1. GDX closed 28/1 at $21.45 and gold that day $1303.
GDX now forming a second 10 day or so bull flag around $22.5-23.5. Next target $24.
Comex gold options expiry is tomorrow 28/2. Post the Jan Options expiry spot gold ran up $40 in 3 weeks which also helped the Centamin share price rally through Jan and three weeks of Feb.
Just curious how you arrive at 87 as a target ?
87 dreaming mate me laugh , at current levels the SP only needs to drop 9%
I’m not deramping as I can see the upside case and you might be right but to say we could not lose 9% is silly. The shorters and MM’s have this for now and the company isn’t trusted to report properly.
Fair comments Market, sadly there are not enough people working in the markets with honorable values and real integrity, anyone who upholds such qualities is instead regarded with suspicion by the other stinkers who take the attitude that anything goes in trading, even manipulating the market by spreading innuendo to cause some panic and churn the shares!!
Also I was in when trading was halted and got in 35P , I’ve mainly traded this as it’s liquid and no stamp duty , I have a small position of 10 thousand but my holding fluctuates wildly. 75-80p would be my next trade. Won’t take a lot to fall further. Fundamentally plenty of time here to re-buy while it gets back on track. I managed to get most of my holding out 8% down on black Monday ...
I respect that and sorry to pry I’m just a nosey individual ! The other poster beat me to it on lending them to short.
I totally understand your position now , I’ve took no dividend this year just so I can reduce my capital gains , looking forward to wrapping another 60 grand up in tax free wrappers this year.
Damn greatland gold going up 150% for me :-)