Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

I must admit to being annoyed with Centamin as well. The fact is that they deceived the market for years as to the true state of operations at Sukhari. Apparently we are meant to forgive all that because there is a new CEO. I don't really buy that argument; I would like all directors who were in office during the reign of Pardey to resign.
I am also frustrated by the ever receding deadlines on news from West Africa. It makes me wonder if various "nasties" are being hidden there.
Finally, I also have questions about the relationship with Capital Drilling, which doesn't seem to me to be on the level. Why employ a drilling company to strip waste when they can't even start work for half a year? It makes no sense.
In short, even though I got lucky and sold when the share price was over £2, I'm not finding the idea of reinvesting into Centamin very appealing. It's going to take more than a new logo to make me change my mind.

$300 million is for 2020. Apologies

FYI Broker median revenue estimate (across 12) was $810m. Above expected @ £829m

Tue, 19th Jan 2021 09:17
(Alliance News) - Centamin PLC on Thursday reported gold production in line with guidance both for the final quarter of 2020, and for the year as a whole.

The Sukari mine in Egypt, which is the FTSE 250 gold miner's only producing asset, achieved output of 67,996 ounces for the three months to the end of December, a 54% drop from 148,387 ounces the same period the year before, due to lower grades, recoveries and a fall in the amount of ore mined.

Despite the decline, the quarterly output was in line with guidance that was set between 60,000 to 70,000 ounces.

Centamin generated revenue of USD150 million for the quarter down 26% year-on-year from USD204 million, as gold sales declined by 42% to 79,535 ounces from 137,065 ounces the prior year.

For 2020 as a whole, gold output dipped by 5.9% to 452,320 ounces from 480,528 ounces the year before, but was in line with the guidance range of 445,000 to 455,000 ounces.

Revenue for the year reached USD829 million, up 26% year-on-year from USD658.1 million. While gold sales dipped by 0.3% to 468,681 ounces from 470,020 ounces the year before, the average gold price jumped by 26% to USD1,766 per ounce from USD1,399.

Looking ahead, for 2021 Centamin expects gold production to be between 400,000 and 430,000 ounces, reflecting a 4.9% to 12% decline from 2020's figure.

Operationally, phase two of the Sukari Life of Asset is underway and will lead to an updated life of plan in the fourth quarter of 2021.

"Today's Q4 and subsequent full year 2020 results were delivered in-line with the revised guidance we issued in October. This follows the capital markets event we hosted in December, where we presented the conclusions of the Phase one Life of Asset review and three-year outlook, detailing clear cost-saving, exploration and productivity initiatives, forming part of our plans to unlock Sukari's potential," said Chief Executive Officer Martin Horgan.

Exactly Iglu & Dun. This update stabilises things from a both market and business perspective. There are very few companies in both the FTSE100 & FTSE250 with no debt and FCF >= $300m (Go analyse other accounts). Not only that they literally have a guaranteed source of revenue with AISC and Gold $/OZ the only real variables in play

Sotolo I think whilst annoyed with the situation that Cey have found themselves at Sukari I am thankful they turned in a small profit as I was expecting to see a red number for the 4th Qtr.
I have no idea what the profits are likely to be but reckon they have conservative targets and that they will reach high side which will be enough to provide a gradual increase in SP if the gold price behaves.
The bonus will hopefully be a 3rd Qtr announcement of a new mine scheduled in West Africa and an earlier announcement of additional concession(s) in Egypt.
A good time to keep the faith.

Forecast section in RNS points to min. 400k ozs and AISC including all planned capex at max $1250/oz. Based on gold at $1800/oz, gives Revenues of $720 million and costs of $500 million, profit $220 million with 50% for us.
This compares with $300 million this year, with just over $150 million for us.

Did anyone listen to the conference call? I only got the last 15mins, missing the first 15mins. Questions I heard were well and confidently answered from the usual suspects eg Jefferies etc. Heard prod for current 2021 stated going along well and no negatives.

Steve just answering Somnamna’s question about 2021, it takes me a long time to write these posts as I try to correct the figures and grammar, with my husband nagging me to come for our morning swim in the sea (North not Med!) . The figures are the ones I calculated after the autumn presentation, and nothing has changed other than gold up a little, as said earlier this week 2021 is very poor, with only around £30m on my matchbox, however recalculating with gold a bit higher than at presentation profit should be a bit more. For info this year, despite dreadful final quarter because of the wall, we made $730 profit an ounce on 451k ounces, and aisc $1036, next year ounces down to 415k Oz and cost upto around $1400 an ounce after the extra $90k Capex, so profit more than halved. However this quarter is the nadir, we should now steadily claw our way up, relief the market for once is looking forward, beyond this horrid quarter and even 2021 (tho share price has halved to take account and of course lower gold) as do us long term holders.

Geologists are the gods' of mining, says Friedland
ROBERT Friedland, who has backed the teams that have made some of the world's biggest mineral discoveries, articulated a religious-like reverence for mineral explorers during a keynote address to the virtual AME Roundup overnight.

Robert Friedland is optimistic the impending global post-COVID economic recovery will be a boon for mines
• Exploration / Development > Events-coverage
• 19 January 2021
• Comments
• Share
Henry Lazenby
"It's a deepest honour to talk to explorationists, because in our world, the geologists are the gods," he said from his base in Singapore.
"In our world, that's where it all comes from. There's more wealth created in the discovery than sitting there tweaking those little dials for 40 years and actually mining."
He likened the explorers to the R&D divisions of major tech firms.
"Juniors are where all the ideas come from."
Friedland said the global mining industry was in the opening innings of massive investment towards a low-carbon economy, something that got somewhat sidetracked by the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Ivanhoe Mines chairman proclaimed this was "the beginning of the revenge of the miners - there are going to be some clear winners among the elements in the periodic table in the economic recovery to follow."
He expects the global economic electrification drive and massive government spending plans such as the ‘green new deal' will start gaining traction from 2023-2025 and involve anything between US$50-100 trillion in global investment.
He said mining had been down for so long, most investors had forgotten what ‘up' looked like. This had prompted them to jump ship in favour of the technology sector, which did not necessarily mean a loss for mining - the internet of things and its associated disruptive technologies would benefit the exploration and mining space.
"Now that the world has gone through the profound shock of COVID-19, people are realising that there will be huge demand for certain metals in a post-COVID world. This begins the era of ‘the revenge of the miner'," he said.
Friedland also touched on the evolving role of ESG investment principles in upstream supply chains.
He said the countervailing pressure to meet very high ESG standards in mining was going to make the entire enterprise even more interesting and difficult to do properly.
"So, welcome to the new world: The situation is hopeless, but it's not serious for the miners. It is possible to mine responsibly, in a better way, and we as an industry have to find a way to do that," he said.
Friedland said ESG was changing the mining landscape, bringing more inclusivity and diversity.
He expects the days are numbered where the world's most traded commodities, which used to be crude oil, were traded using a single price for specific grades of product. This is driven by the advent of blockchain technology which he said had the ability to disrupt and modernise markets, allowing for me

Iglu

Good summary.

Markets are forward looking, they can see the worst is behind CEY. Considering the share price was above £2 not long ago and things start to improve from now on, I can see a gradual increase back to those levels again. I’m looking forward to the potentially fantastic news of a new asset. The share price is cheap considering where this has been recently....and the new management seems very professional which is equally important

Quick change of mind there Sotolo, from before market opened to now... wonder why? Sorry, but couldn't resist...

I reckon overall we should make around £30m at current gold price but rises to £60m in 2022, and if gold rises....

Because as said the halving share price has taken care of the short term, then it will move up, get a massive 6% in th emra time, and believe gold will save the day. I love Centamin and the last quarter should be the very lowest point, we didn’t quite hit a loss, so let’s look forward now

Sotolo thanks for your usual pragmatic say it as it is analysis. How do you see the position at H2 and H4 2021?

So why not sell and move on?

I don’t see why market should be positive on this, $1613 aisc so only $3m free cash flow, lucky not a loss
4th quarter 2019 148,000 Oz aisc 792
4th quarter 2020 68000 Oz at aisc $1613
We knew there would be no profit this quarter and next year still looking grim, but disappointing no news on W Africa concessions or anything cheerful
Hopefully share price has done its falling as this is as expected but market can be harsh
And before you blame me these are Centamin’s figures not mine, uphill now from here and after 2021 should be improving to a great 2024
Also no news on divi I saw?

If we had repeated 2019 we would have made 1100$ an ounce profit, $200m not $3

Sell-off overdone- my view that CEY a bargain at current SP. Upside of 40-50% from here.

Cont.

Sukari Life of Asset review ("LOA") Phase 2 is underway and will result in an updated life of mine plan in Q4 2021

· The West African portfolio review will be completed in H1 2021, including updated mineral resource estimates.



CONFERENCE CALL

The Company will host a conference call today, Tuesday, 19 January at 08.30 GMT (UK time) to discuss the results with investors and analysts, followed by an opportunity to ask questions. Please find below the required participation details for the call. A replay will be made available on the Company website.

RNS Number : 0882M
Centamin PLC
19 January 2021

19 January 2021
Centamin plc
("Centamin" or "the Company")
LSE: CEY / TSX: CEE


QUARTERLY REPORT
for the three months ended 31 December 2020


MARTIN HORGAN, CEO, commented: "Today's Q4 and subsequent full year 2020 results were delivered in-line with the revised guidance we issued in October. This follows the capital markets event we hosted in December, where we presented the conclusions of the Phase 1 Life of Asset review and three-year outlook, detailing clear cost-saving, exploration and productivity initiatives, forming part of our plans to unlock Sukari's potential."



HIGHLIGHTS[1]

Q4 and FY results delivered in line with guidance

· Gold production from the Sukari Gold Mine ("Sukari") for the fourth quarter ("Q4"), was 67,996 ounces ("oz"), which is in-line with the quarterly guidance range of 60,000 to 70,000 oz; Gold production for 2020 ("FY") was 452,320 oz and in-line with annual production guidance of 445,000 to 455,000 oz

· Q4 revenue of US$150 million, generated from gold sales of 79,535 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,887/oz sold; FY revenue of US$829 million, generated from gold sales of 468,681 oz at an average realised gold price of US$1,766/oz

· Q4 cash costs of US$1,080/oz produced, outside of the quarterly guidance of US$950-1,050/oz produced, and all-in sustaining costs ("AISC") of US$1,613/oz sold, in-line with quarterly guidance range of US$1,450-1,650/oz sold; FY cash costs of US$719/oz produced, delivered below the annual guidance of US$740-790/oz produced, and AISC of US$1,036/oz, which was in-line with annual guidance range of US$950-1,050/oz sold

· Q4 adjusted Group free cash flow of US$3 million, after US$48 million of capital expenditure and US$21 million distributed to the Egyptian government in profit share payments and royalties[2]; FY adjusted Group free cash flow of US$142 million, after US$138 million of capital expenditure and US$199 million was distributed to the Egyptian government in profit share payments and royalties

· In December 2020, the Company contracted Capital Ltd ("Capital") to complete a 120Mt waste-stripping programme over four years. Capital are well progressed with the mobilisation of their fleet and team on site and are on track to commence material movement in H1 2021

· Strong balance sheet with no debt, no hedging and cash and liquid assets[3] of US$310 million, as at 31 December 2020.

OUTLOOK[4]

Investing for operating reliability and consistency

Guidance unchanged:

· 2021 gold production of 400,000 to 430,000 oz, at cash costs of US$800-900/oz produced and AISC of US$1,150-1,250/oz sold

· 2021 capital expenditure ("capex") is estimated at US$225 million, including investment to improve mining flexibility (increased open pit stripping programme and increased underground development) and identified growth projects

· S

The company is putting a lot of things right. Looks good for Q4 in 2021. Hopefully the response is constructive.

Mr El-Raghy's media report was spot on.. 452.300

https://www.londonstockexchange.com/news-article/CEY/q4-2020-report/14831501

Stocks on the major European benchmarks traded higher in the premarket on Tuesday as the investors anticipated the data scheduled for release later in the day. Centre for European Economic Research (ZEW) is due to come out with its survey of the economic sentiment in Germany, while the European Central Bank will publish its quarterly bank lending survey.

On the COVID front, the United States has sent mixed messages in regards to lifting travel restrictions for the Schengen Area, as well as the United Kingdom. Sitting US President Donald Trump issued a proclamation stating that the entry to the US will be allowed from January 26, while president-elect's future White House secretary stressed that the new administration has no intention to back the move.

The DAX rose 0.65% at 7:30 am CET, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.51% at the same time. Both euro and pound strengthened versus the euro, advancing 0.15% and 0.14% at 7:29 am CET, to sell for 1.20949 and 1.36060, respectively.

Breaking the News / BU