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Hitting the midpoints of guidance lends credibility to their guidance going forward. Slightly easier to be confident of actually achieving the promised higher ounces.
Seems reasonable. No surprises in there.
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1483696769158500360?s=21
Stocks on European exchanges were below the flatline in premarket trade on Wednesday with traders anticipating inflation reports for Germany and the United Kingdom. Meanwhile, Germany reported a new record in daily coronavirus infections earlier in the day.
The DAX declined by 0.61%, London's FTSE 100 was down 0.51%, while the CAC 40 lost 0.66% at 6:47 am CET.
The euro was 0.10% up compared to the dollar at 7:10 am CET, trading for 1.13282. The British pound was 0.12% higher against the greenback, changing hands for 1.36007 a minute later.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / MS
Happy Wednesday y’al..
May today be a corner turned, rather than a hump to be gotten over.
Green shoots are due for sure.
Not long for the update, hope good news
CONTRY RISK SOUTH AFRICA/GOLD South Africa—Last May, three men strode into a suburban street and sprayed gunfire into a car, killing mining executive Nico Swart on his way to work.
Mr. Swart, 47 years old, had been a general manager at Richards Bay Minerals, or RBM, which is majority owned by global mining giant Rio Tinto PLC. His murder, which is still under investigation, marked another grim flashpoint in the decline of South Africa’s signature industry.
In June, protesters and looters attacked RBM operations, destroying property and mining equipment. In response, Rio Tinto declared force majeure on all customer contracts at RBM, employing the legal provision that excuses parties from contract terms because of unforeseen circumstances.
South Africa’s $24 billion mining sector, which has provided the raw material for nearly half the gold bullion and gold jewelry ever produced, is waning under the pressure of violent crime, growing costs and regulatory uncertainty, as well as tapped-out mines.
Some of the world’s most familiar mining brands have headed for the door, threatening severe consequences for South Africa’s struggling economy, which has also been walloped by Covid-19. The nation’s unemployment rate hit a record 34.9% last year. Mining employs more than 450,000 people and makes up some 8.4% of national economic output.
In recent years, South Africa’s metal refineries and processing plants have been the target of commando-style robberies carried out by Kalashnikov-toting gangs. Mining companies suffered 22 armed heists at precious-metal facilities in 2019 and 2020—a period of rising gold prices—as well as an attempted robbery in 2021, according to Minerals Council South Africa, an industry group.
“I’m very angry about what’s happening in South Africa, and disappointed,” said Neal Froneman, chief executive of Johannesburg-based Sibanye-Stillwater Ltd. , one of the world’s largest producers of platinum, palladium and gold. “But I have to put my personal views and emotions to one side. This is why we’re internationalizing our business.” The company in recent years has expanded mining operations to the U.S. and Finland.
The rest is not any better, but looks very grim for South Africa
I would put Sth African Gold Companies on a Hold or SELL
best
the gnome
Q4 is always Jan, then Q1 Apr, Q2 Jul, Q3 Oct, Q4 Jan again, and then after that full year annual report?
Hi Sotolo. I don't think people will compare back to 2019 simply because these figures won't appear anywhere .it will require them to ferret them out from previous reports, plus the current share price is heavily discounted against what it was back then anyway.
It's anybody's guess how the market will react, but mine is that the price will move up and there will be further positive momentum for a few days afterwards
I am not though as upbeat about their medium term prospects so I will be reducing my holdings probably before the end of the week .
I will still hold on to some (about 20%) in the hope of some further upside , but with limited damage if that doesn't transpire
Good luck
Preliminary production, sales and cost information for Q4 will be released on January 19th
Interesting that they choose to update the market on Jan 19th when their official Q4 2021 Results date isn’t scheduled until Wednesday, February 16th
*Head scratch, naa maybe just coincidence.
https://twitter.com/barrickgold/status/1481242129729040390?s=21
Apologies, I meant in the context of where it was trading running-in towards the end of the year. - Since the start of the new-year, there appears to be a stair-step up in the level of pricing which appears to be holding. - I was putting this down to the influence of Basel 111. - It would be good to find out for certain just what the situation really is here.
Not sure what you meant by Gold/Silver trading at a much higher level Rebess.
Gold was trading at around $1900 this time last year, and at $2000 in Jul 2020.
Sold today for 8% profit, don't fancy holding into the update. Hopefully the share price has a big uplift for any holders tomorrow but I think we'll be able to buy in the mid 80's again at some point. Just my 2 cents.
I think a lot of people compare to same quarter in 2019 as Covid was such a disruptor, though of course I hope you are right and we see a sizeable rise at 8am
No doubt we'll find out Ken. - The other expert that was informing us on Basel 111 was Alasdair McCleod. - He covered the subject for many months and none of what he forecast has come to pass. - He also has not mentioned any change to the Jan. 22 date. - One thing that is noticeable, to me at any rate, since the start of the year, although it appears that manipulation is still taking place, it is doing so with the price of Gold/Silver trading at a much higher level and also maintaining that position.
"Andrew Maguire in his latest LFTV speaks as though it is in play and just requires time to take effect."
Rebess, it is the length of time this will take to properly kick in that concerns me.
As for Andrew Maguire, personally, I cannot watch the guy, he speaks too fast, uses too many tech terms, waves his arms too much, and has an irritating voice. It all seems a bit hysterical to me, but each to their own.
cont.
If you are right about the 29th October date, you would have thought that Andrew M would have picked-up on that and informed us all. - He didn't.
Thanks Ken
I see the point you're making. - Well now, I wonder if there's a way of finding out for sure. - Andrew Maguire in his latest LFTV speaks as though it is in play and just requires time to take effect. - Andrew is pretty clued-up on such matters
Hi Rebess,
The chart showing when compliances were to be effective was marked as (as of October 2021). The article announcing the one year extension was written on the 29th Oct 2021. It is quite conceivable that the chart had not been updated with this one year postponement. The article also states: "Following a one-year deferral to increase the operational capacity of banks and supervisors to respond to COVID-19, these reforms will take effect from 1 January 2023 and will be phased in over five years."
Either way the FT article shows that the banks and regulatory bodies are not anywhere near ready, and I think everyone is taking the "phased in over five years" literally. The Bank of England and the PRA are not even planning to discus this until the second half of 2022.
I believe that this is why the gold price has not risen as folks expected it to leading up to Jan 1st 2022. As far as I can see little or nothing has changed, and I am not very confident 2023 will be much better. IMO the LBMA will do all in their power to obstruct and frustrate this legislation and I expect little of the PRA and the Bank of England.
Meanwhile the media and even gold experts ignore the subject and the effects of the one year extension. Perhaps they find the information from the FSB and the BIS as incomprehensible as the rest of us.
Actually , the Q4 results if spun correctly will make excellent reading. .
They will show an approx 50% increase in production on Q4 from last year. It will also show a favourable comparison between the second half of last year and the second half of this year
It will however still show a year on year fall with 2020
Let's see what comparison they choose to highlight
If they highlight the Q4 year on year comparison then I would expect a sizeable uplift in share price ..but who knows what the market will make of it
CEY haven't met guidance for ages so if it's in line or better then the market should reward them for showing stability and consistency
There haven’t been any good results for a long while, profits steadily falling until/if they turn which needs in order of importance higher gold price (down around 10% on the year in real terms), reduce costs (that have soared) and more ounces (that have fallen.
Not sure what tomorrow will bring, good results seem to be followed by a share price drop.
So let’s hope the share price drops tomorrow
Incidentally 4th quarter results tomorrow but not expecting then to do very much either way, we are at the mercy of the gold price waves and as said earlier no-one, least of all banks and analysts, has the least idea which way it will go, though Id like to find that monkey with a dart.
Hi Ken
As I understand it, Basel 111 is not a singular issue but rather is made up of a multitude of new rules, terms and conditions.
They are being phased-in over a period of time.- The NSFR requirement affecting the calculation of assets held on account has been a part of this phasing-in. The first tranche of adopting countries became compliant from July 1st 2021. - UK was supposed to be a part of this adoption but was granted a six-month extension to become compliant from Jan. 1st 2022. - To the best of my knowledge and confirmed by your link, this is the current state-of-play. - That's all I know. - The confusion arises I think, out of the affect it's had on the POG and the continued manipulation, when we were all led to believe, by the experts, that this would cease. - They were forecasting that the effects of the NSFR would begin to show as early as Nov. 21 and by the end of December, all parties would have to have their positions squared ready for Jan. 1st 22. - Well, so much for experts, this hasn't happened. So, it's hardly surprising that we are all confused. - It would be useful if there was a source where we could ask for a definitive answer. - I wouldn't know where to start.
Hi Rebess,
I looked at the FSB table you suggested, and as you say the UK does seem to be NSFR compliant from Jan 2022. I also listened to what Andrew Maguire said about this. However, he said nothing about Basel 3 being extended till 2023. However, other articles I have read suggest that progress is snail like to say the least.
Financial Times 1 Nov 2021
Latest version of banking standards will come into force 'post March 2023'
The UK has eased its timetable for implementing the latest global bank capital standards, but stopped short of the two-year delay recently announced by the EU, raising the prospect that British banks will be forced to comply sooner than their closest rivals.
The UK's financial regulators said on Monday they would look to implement the latest Basel III banking standards "post March 2023", without specifying a date. The rules, which mostly streamline how banks calculate their capital, were due to come into force globally in January 2023.
A planned consultation led by the Bank of England's Prudential Regulation Authority on the implementation was also postponed from the final quarter of 2021 until the second half of next year.
Regulatory experts said the financial impact of the final parts of Basel III on British banks was unclear since the UK had provided no detail on its approach to areas where national rulemakers have discretion, such as the amount of capital that banks have to set aside for potential defaults among corporate clients who do not have a rating from a credit-rating agency.