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Thank you Goldgnome for the additional info and valuable comments!
I did send Alex at Centamin IR a follow up to her reply asking that she look into these outstanding questions. I'll post whatever response I receive.
But as you say - the seismic data already attained may still hold tremendous value. Similar to what Mr Horgan did when the historical Sukari drill samples were relogged and new insights were gained.
Bottom line - an expensive but mysteriously near-completed seismic survey is certainly not a trivial topic but pivotal to expanding Centamin's geological knowledge base beyond the current open pit & underground. Why would the BOD now sweep it under the table or dismiss it?
1) release the damn seismic survey results BETTER TO GO TO SOMEONE WHO KNOWS WHAT TO DO WITH THIS DATA, AND INTERPRET AND INTERGRATE THE RESULTS, AND THEN TARGET ASSESSMENT//...
2) explain why the results are/were deemed inconclusive and unworthy of completion (and who deemed them so) YES
3) tell us if there are plans to get a proper seismic survey ... THERE ARE BETTER EXPLORATION FLOWS THAT I WOULD PUT IN PLACE THAN DOING VERY EXPENSIVE 3D SEISMIC. IF THEY DONT KNOW WHAT THESE ARE THEY SHOULD GO TO PEOPLE WHO DO...THESE PEOPLE EXIST.
IN GENERAL, THE MINING AND EXPLORATION INDUSTRY HAVE A TERRIFIC PROPENSITY FOR BURYING FAILED EXPERIMENTS, AND IT IS A MAJOR REASON WHY THEY DONT LEARN AND GET A LOT SMARTER. IN ADDITION THEY ARE FAILING TO PROJECT THEMSELVES AS AN INDUSTRY OF ANY ATTRACTION TO THE YOUNG SMART PEOPLE, AND LETS FACE IT IF YOU ARE GOOD AT MATHEMATICS OR ENGINEERING FAR BETTER TO GET INTO FINANCE, INVESTMENT BANKING OR ALIKE...SO THERE IS A LACK OF REAL TALENT IN THE INDUSTRY AND IT IS GETTING WORSE WHEN IT SHOULD BE GOING THE OTHER WAY...
REGARDS
THE GNOME
1) Why are we just learning about this now - after someone asks? If the data was inconclusive let the market know. Seismic surveys are not magic - the data is interpreted - i.e. expect competing interpretations. THEY MAYBE CCONFUSED IN THEIR REPLY. IF THE DATA QUALITY WAS NOT GOOD THEN THIS IS A FUNDAMENTAL PROBLEM WITH THE CONTRACT AND CONTRACTOR.
Also, what are the reasons the survey was deemed inconclusive? Who did the survey? Are they reputable? If there was an issue on the survey's implementation was a 'redo' requested? These things aren't cheap - how much did it cost?
THE CONTRACTOR WAS REPORTEDLY A GROUP CALLED HISEIS, WHO HAVE SHOT MANY HARD ROCK SEISMIC SURVEYS. THE DATA COULD HOWEVER BE INAPPROPRIATELY PROCESSED. IF THIS IS THE CASE THEN THEY CAN GO TO ANOTHER PROCESSING HOUSE AND GET IT DONE PROPERLY UNDER PROPER SUPERVISION. IF THEY DONT KNOW HOW TO INTERPRET THE RESULTS AND INTERGARTE THEM WITH OTHER DAT SETS, THEN AGAIN THERE ARE A FEW WHP DO GREAT WORK.
https://www.earthdoc.org/content/papers/10.3997/2214-4609.201802731
1b) Considering the questionable nature of the multi-year drilling campaign we apparently got from Batie West - is there a pattern of shoddy hires and projects not being carried out to a satisfactory completion? Who on the BOD is taking responsibility? SHODDY HIRES IS PROBABLY ON THE RIGHT ROAD. THE PAST BOD TOOK LITTLE REPSONSIBILITY OBVIOUSLY.
2) The timeline of when this seismic work was carried out 2018/2019 vs when non-essential capital projects were put on hold mid 2020 does not line up. Obviously the decision to NOT spend the extra $7 million to complete the survey was taken well before Horgan's arrival sometime in 2019. By whom? Andrew Pardey? The former CEO who the BOD said retired without a word of explanation? The former CEO who is far from retired - now in control of multiple gold miners?
THANKS GOODNESS HE HAS RETIRED FROM CENTAMIN. THIS WAS DONE ON HIS WATCH AND HE HAD ULTIMATE RESPONSIBILITY FOR THIS MAJOR EXPENSE ITEM. I AM SURE HE KNOWS NEXT TO NOTHING ABOUT SEISMIC, JUST PROBABLY SEEMED LIKE A GOOD IDEA AT THE TIME, SOLD BY THE SNAKEOIL GUYS.
None of this secrecy bodes well for the company going forward. If we can't trust the current BOD's decision making or their willingness to advise shareholders of money spent on botched projects then we need a new slate of directors. Too many mysteries. To many dropped balls.
THE BOD HAS NO REAL WORLD EXPERIENCE IN EXPLORATION. GIVEN THEY WANT TO HAVE ORGANIC GROWTH THEN THIS IS AN OMISSION, TOO MANY SEAT WARMERS AND GENDER BALANCE.
As it is too many Centamin shareholders accept the BOD's zero accountability - simply shrug their shoulders and bury their heads.
*** I would hope other shareholders would repeat my call to press Centamin to
Mr Tibbles, I didn’t say POG wouldn’t rise in 2022, I just said we need that rise to maintain profits, and it looks less likely as gold fails to be moved by large negative real interest rates and high inflation. I have no idea if gold will fall or rise, but I do know what Mr Horgan has told,us, without a gold rise profits will be lower with higher costs and lower output. It is possible the extra holes as you put it wil not only cost us more but reveal more and cheaper gold, but this certainly isn’t promised. However with the world as it is now even a lower dividend (not the next one as already promised) or paying it out of cash we already hold, makes these a hold as most other shares can and bonds are likely to decline in value and there is a possible upside here or hopefully lower fall that elsewhere. Your wishful thinking, and about life, is charming.
Lol Mr T- happy memories- I play golf with my dad 2 times a week- he’s 82 and was a single handicap golfer (good) all his life - I treasure every game and am very lucky
Hi Steve,,
Absolutely, but then if any of the experts were that good wouldn’t they all have made their billions and sailed off into the sunset instead of writing article based on so many uncertain/unknown factors, not to mention the behind-the-scenes control/manipulation by the world’s central banks and politicians
I recall the past discussions I have had with someone who has many years’ experience in the wholesale markets and they have often said they know what should happen, but nothing is certain because despite what is claimed the market isn't a level playing field and there are those who have access to information many hours before the rest and so can pull the right levers to make the market move the way they want it to!
It’s just like brokers the same applies to them, but then its far easier and safer to get paid placing bets with someone else's money rather than their own!
My dad was a successful licensed scarp metals dealer, he started the first container style commercial factory waste collection service in the sixties, using Massey Ferguson industrial tractors and Wheatley high sided trailers, at that time big bin on off trucks didn't exist.
My Dads weaknesses were that he assumed that he could trust far too many of the other people he did business with and he loved horse racing!
When I was a young lad my Dad took to the local Tradesmen Club and whilst he went off to do a bit a of business and as I sat alone drinking my pop a very well dressed man brought me over another bottle of pop with a packet of crisps, before sitting down he introduced himself as Uncle Markie and asked if he could join me, I agreed and on taking a seat he asked if Dad had mentioned him to me, I replied I had heard off him and asked if he was in the scrap or rubbish clearance business ?
Uncle Markie laughed and replied that he wasn't, he didn't like getting his suit dirty, but he was a bookmaker and did I know what they did, I replied I wasn't sure, he replied well I take bets on horses from people like your Dad.
Uncle Markie then asked if I knew how to place a bet on a horse to which replied I didn't,
Markie replied then that to the good because you don't want to know, take it from me lad I never lose, its people like your Dad that lose and he would be far richer if he stayed away from my betting shop!
With that he stood up patted me on the shoulder saying "remember lad stay away from backing the Gee Gees", with that he turned and left.
I have stayed away from the bookies, although some brokers are just like bookies, although not as honest as Uncle Markie!
Dont we all bow to their Greater Knowlege/
gnome I agree seismic is more specific but you initially need to know where to be more specific so both survey types will be extremely beneficial. Must also admit my knowledge of seismic surveys is way out of date and was quite hit and miss literally whacking a metal plate with a big hammer. OK joking because did see results prior to retirement of some advances but not as reliable as in the petroleum sector. So I bow to yours and Cowichan's greater knowledge.
Despite Sotolo's fears possibly based on misguided assumptions or rumours about the Egyptian prospects and other various market issues, he is after all just guessing, because the relevant information can't, or wont be disclosed until the appropriate time due to financial regulations, but that said on what information is available Centamin seems well placed to continue to make money!
The dividend policy has'nt changed, it was confirmed in the last Q&A session and as far as anyone can tell there is no intention to change it, the amount of 2022 dividend to be announced in March 2022..
There is a shortage of physical gold and increasing lead in times at the majority of the worlds licensed gold refiners.
Basel 3 is already having an effect and will do so increasingly as 2022 progresses.
Inflation will certainly have an effect on the POG.
The effects of the new company strategy won't be instant, but will also become more apparent as they filter through over 2022 and beyond when they are reported to the market at the appropriate time.
Mr T- all experts, get paid and are as wrong as they are right. Sometimes I think "new" experts make bold statements and if they are right everyone thinks "genius" and follows and they make money, until they are wrong... for some publicists it's well worth the gamble and better than saying nothing lol.
So many predicted market crashes since 2016- when in fact US indices doubled- sure at some point, they will be right, but will forget to mention all the times they were wrong and even if a crash is correct, they forget to mention that people would still have made more money if they hadn't listened, despite a crash... long term equities make (if balanced) and so does gold- just both can have sizeable lengthy dips alas.
This chart is an interesting one someone posted on another forum, which goes someway to explaining why we've not seen a gold surge on the past year or so inflation worries and realisation https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/08/gold-as-an-inflation-hedge-history-suggests-otherwise.html
There has been a few conference dates added to the “upcoming events” lately.
https://www.centamin.com/investors/investor-calendar/
Polite and Professional. Thank you Alex!
For those who haven't been following the thread it was regarding the GREATER Sukari area seismic survey in 2018/2019.
An excerpt from Alex reply:
"The quality of the data was inconclusive and the capital cost to complete the 3D survey was approximately an additional US$7m."
"With the arrival of the new Board and Management team, in H1 2020 all non-essential capital projects were halted subject to several reviews –"
----------------------------------->>>
My Thoughts:
I preface this with the acknowledgement that Centamin's IR team isn't responsible for the actions of the BOD or former CEO. So my criticism/questions that follow are directed at the board who were present during 2018 until this day - not Mr Horgan or the IR team
1) Why are we just learning about this now - after someone asks? If the data was inconclusive let the market know. Seismic surveys are not magic - the data is interpreted - i.e. expect competing interpretations.
Also, what are the reasons the survey was deemed inconclusive? Who did the survey? Are they reputable? If there was an issue on the survey's implementation was a 'redo' requested? These things aren't cheap - how much did it cost?
1b) Considering the questionable nature of the multi-year drilling campaign we apparently got from Batie West - is there a pattern of shoddy hires and projects not being carried out to a satisfactory completion? Who on the BOD is taking responsibility?
2) The timeline of when this seismic work was carried out 2018/2019 vs when non-essential capital projects were put on hold mid 2020 does not line up. Obviously the decision to NOT spend the extra $7 million to complete the survey was taken well before Horgan's arrival sometime in 2019. By whom? Andrew Pardey? The former CEO who the BOD said retired without a word of explanation? The former CEO who is far from retired - now in control of multiple gold miners?
None of this secrecy bodes well for the company going forward. If we can't trust the current BOD's decision making or their willingness to advise shareholders of money spent on botched projects then we need a new slate of directors. Too many mysteries. To many dropped balls.
As it is too many Centamin shareholders accept the BOD's zero accountability - simply shrug their shoulders and bury their heads.
*** I would hope other shareholders would repeat my call to press Centamin to
1) release the damn seismic survey results
2) explain why the results are/were deemed inconclusive and unworthy of completion (and who deemed them so)
3) tell us if there are plans to get a proper seismic survey done.
As Goldgnome pointed out - seismic surveys are FAR more detailed and precise at unlocking the underground geology than an airborne survey (which is now in the works) the comparison is like apples to watermelons
Oh dear Sotolo, all that hole drilling in Egypt and no new gold. really?
Oh dear profits dropping and AISC through the roof ?
POG won't rise in 2022, possibly you know something that wholesalers aren't aware of?
Perhaps you would be better to get out whilst you can?
Why stay in this share if that's how you feel?
The apparent volte face comes after other experts at the bank said earlier this month that Bitcoin would take market share from gold as more people pile into the cryptocurrency, predicting its value would reach $100,000 in five years.!
But they warned that the energy required to mine Bitcoin could hinder its popularity!
Quite appropriate considering today's announcements by the clowns in charge at No 11 & No 10 Downing Street!
From the horse’s mouth…
“Consistent stakeholder return policy…”
This is the first time Martin Horgan commented on the dividend in quite a while. Good to hear his reassuring remarks.
Inflation going through the roof added on the pull back.
As most of you will be aware household energy prices in the UK are due to rise by over 50% in April, yet our UK oil rigs in the North Sea continue to flare huge amounts of gas and although banned in Nigeria over since the 1970's the oil/gas companies regard it cheaper to pay the fines than to fit gas collectors!
The Sukari Solar plant was certainly the right decision by the Centamin management for many reasons in addition to just reducing AISC!
Nigeria -
Joy and her family are among two million Nigerians living within 4km of a gas flare in Nigeria's oil-rich south.
Climate change has had a devastating impact on Nigeria. Fertile lands are turning into deserts in the north, while flash floods have become more common in the south.
The country's oil industry is making things worse as the practice of flaring - the burning of natural gas that is released when oil is extracted from the ground - is common despite its illegality. The practice is a major source of greenhouse gases and a contributor to climate change.
Shell, BP, Chevron and many other fossil fuel and even many mining companies display an appalling lack of care or regard for our planet and far too many corrupt government ministers go along with the exploitation and pollution of their countries as long as they are making personal gain out of turning a blind eye!
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-africa-58549010
Share holders and indeed even day traders have for far too long failed to accept that it is morally wrong to invest invest or trade in companies who fail to comply fully with environmental protection regulations or fail to adopt or instigate more environmentally friendly methods of carrying out their business, no matter where that business takes place!
An oil production ship capable of carrying up to 2 million barrels of oil has exploded off the coast of Nigeria.
According to local reports, the Trinity Spirit exploded at the Ukpokiti oil field off Nigeria’s coast near the Escravos terminal close to the River Niger delta.
“It was like a Hiroshima site,” said Sharon Ikeazor, Nigeria’s minister of state for the environment, after she inspected the damage at the OML 29 Wellhead operated by Aiteo Eastern E&P Co., a Nigerian oil company. The licence is operated under a joint venture with the state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Corporation (NNPC).
The river and ocean tides carried the spill into communities in neighbouring Rivers state, also part of the Niger Delta, where the majority of Nigeria’s oil and gas reserves are located. A unit of US services giant Halliburton was enlisted to cap the well.
The oil field was purchased by Aiteo from Shell and partners for $2.7bn in 2014 in one of the largest local acquisitions made as Shell scaled back its operations in Nigeri
https://african.business/2022/01/energy-resources/nigerias-spill-hit-communities-demand-more-from-petroleum-industry-act/
Centamin is certainly setting standards that other mining companies should fol
I bought shares in two different companies yesterday and both transactions appeared as 'sells' on LSE.
The buy/sell indicator doesn't seem that reliable.
Intraday buy/sell ratio currently
333k sold against 2m bought.
Quite so Rebess, Our lying and corrupt PM has pledged £ 88 million to Ukraine for arms etc (they cut aid to starving counties) and his slimy cabinet has refused a Labour proposed and easily affordable windfall tax on Shell after they have screwed the ordinary people and instead our out of touch government is going to grant £200 repayable over loans per customer to offset energy prices.
Energy giant Shell posts 'momentous' £12BILLION profits as millions face soaring bills and cost-of-living crisis - sparking calls for windfall tax on power companies
London-based company collected $8.88 for every thousand cubic feet of gas it sold to customers in Q4 2021
This was a huge rise with gas previously selling for less than half this amount only six months earlier, at $4.31
Gas prices soaring with Russia restricting supply to Europe and China buying up more global gas shipment
And unusually still winds last summer meant more gas was needed to replace electricity from wind turbines
Energy price cap is to rise by around £650 in today's announcement taking average household bill to £2,000
Shell has increased its profits nearly fourteen-fold to £12billion amid soaring oil and gas prices – with the energy giant revealing a bumper three months on the same day that the UK price cap is set to rise by around £650.
The London-based company collected $8.88 for every thousand cubic feet of gas it sold to customers in the last quarter of 2021 - with gas previously selling for less than half this amount only six months earlier, at $4.31.
Gas prices have been pushed up in the last year with Russia restricting supply to Europe and China buying up more international gas shipments. Meanwhile, winds in Europe were unusually still last summer, meaning more gas was needed to replace the electricity that would otherwise have been produced by wind turbines.
The price rises have led to energy suppliers going out of business and contributed to soaring inflation, while from April 1 households will be hit with a hike in energy bills that will see the average hit nearly £2,000.
Shell's chief executive Ben van Beurden said 2021 had been a 'momentous year' for the firm, but it came as the Chancellor is set to announce how the Government will help families pay soaring bills amid the cost of living crisis.
But Labour's shadow Treasury chief secretary Pat McFadden said Shell's bumper profits showed why a windfall tax was the best way to fund a support package for struggling families. He told Sky News: 'They are planning share buybacks and increased dividends but they are not being asked to pay a penny towards the package.'
Shell's chief executive Ben van Beurden said 2021 had been a 'momentous year' for the London-based energy giant
So just proves the Tories are worse than they were in the Eighties when they sold to the people what they already owned!
It seems to me that come hell or high-water, sanctions are going to be imposed, the decision has already been made IMO. - US/UK are goading Russia into making a move to create the justification for deploying sanctions. - If Russia doesn't invade they'll find a different reason. - None of it has anything to do with Ukraine. - Same old imperial playbook strategy.
Hi Dasut,
I agree entirely with you, also considering your past professional experience of the industry and Sukari your opinion regarding the recent presentations is especially appreciated and indeed should be regarded as an endorsement of the professionalism of Martin Horgans new strategy, also endorsed by Kees Dekker which I find most reassuring as Kees doesn't give approval without justifiable cause and neither does he hold back or mince his words!
I am glad to learn that Cowichan is intending on putting this query to Centamin via Investor Relations, to be fair he seems to be one of the minority who rather than just complaining on web forums does also follow through by taking the time and trouble to write to the company via the correct channel's.
As I have said before one can be whomever they want to be on internet forums,although when it comes to actually writing to the company,or as you rightly suggest asking questions on the telephone, well that requires quite a bit more genuine conviction and effort which many are unwilling to make!
But credit to those that do!
Bit of information on Geodrill could there be a deal struck between Cey and Pru for the West African assets?
Geodrill has been successful in establishing a leading market position in Ghana, Burkina Faso, Cote d'Ivoire and Mali. The Company is also expanding its geographic presence into Egypt in North Africa, and Peru in South America. With the largest fleet of multi-purpose rigs, Geodrill provides a broad selection of diverse drilling services, including exploration, delineation, underground and grade control drilling, to meet the specific needs of its clients. The Company's client mix is made up of senior mining, intermediate and junior exploration companies.
TORONTO, Jan. 11, 2022 /CNW/ - Geodrill Limited ("Geodrill" or the "Company")
GEO
+0.07%
+ Free Alerts
, a leading West African based drilling company announces the Company has been awarded significant multi-rig long-term drilling contracts with Perseus Mining Ltd ("Perseus") (ASX: PRU)
PRU
-0.01%
+ Free Alerts
, a West African-based mining company with gold production and exploration activities in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire.
The contracts with Perseus are for exploration drilling in Ghana and Côte d'Ivoire and to be completed by August 2023 utilizing up to 15 drill rigs from the Company's existing fleet. The contracts are expected to generate revenue in excess of US$45 million over the term of the contracts. Geodrill currently has a rig fleet of 71 drill rigs operating in West Africa, Egypt and Peru.
"Geodrill continues to build meaningful relationships and revenue by expanding contracts with top-tier gold customers in our core geographic region. These contracts bring top-line growth, improving economies of scale and support our goal of delivering consistent earnings in 2022," said Dave Harper, CEO and President of Geodrill.
European equities traded mixed in Thursday's pre-market hours amid earnings season and ahead of new data to be released during the day. Starting the day, Roche announced that its sales for the fiscal year 2021 rose by 8%, while ING Groep N.V. published that its net result for the fourth quarter of the same year climbed 30%. Investors are also expecting the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany and UK.
The DAX lost 0.13% at 8:00 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.15%, and and the FTSE 100 declined 0.23%. The euro was down by 0.11% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.12928. In comparison, the pound decreased by 0.16% to go for $1.35500. at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA