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European equities traded mixed in Thursday's pre-market hours amid earnings season and ahead of new data to be released during the day. Starting the day, Roche announced that its sales for the fiscal year 2021 rose by 8%, while ING Groep N.V. published that its net result for the fourth quarter of the same year climbed 30%. Investors are also expecting the Services Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) from Germany and UK.
The DAX lost 0.13% at 8:00 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.15%, and and the FTSE 100 declined 0.23%. The euro was down by 0.11% against the dollar at 7:58 am CET, selling for $1.12928. In comparison, the pound decreased by 0.16% to go for $1.35500. at the same time.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA
Looks like the rich guys are positioning the poor guys to start shooting each other again...sigh ....
The U.S. military ordered up to 8,500 U.S. troops on standby to potentially deploy to Eastern Europe as tensions rise over Russia’s presence near Ukraine’s border, in what amounts to an escalation toward U.S. military involvement (new concept?), Nancy A. Youssef and Gordon Lubold report.
The “prepare to deploy orders” were issued to troops stationed at several U.S.-based installations, the officials said, but the troops haven’t been technically activated to deploy to the region.
I do hope the FAMILY is not at it again...
https://www.rollingstone.com/culture/culture-features/netflix-the-family-jesse-moss-secret-christian-cult-washington-dc-869396/
good luck all, especially those in unforms and in Eastern Europe.
best
the gnome
NATO allies are bolstering the alliance’s eastern flank in response to Russia’s military buildup around Ukraine, as the European Union set out plans for loans and grants for Kyiv worth more than $1.3 billion, James Marson and Laurence Norman report.
The moves are part of sharpening efforts by the U.S. and its allies to gird for what they believe could be an imminent military invasion of Ukraine, which Russia denies it is planning.
The Fed has produced its white paper on digital currency. One wonders the motivation to get off its backside, but perhaps they have realised the unproductive waste of investment going into a casino with no rules is not providing a benefit to society, aside from the mass of illicit wealth being transferred with little regulation...and on I could go. If you missed it, here it is
https://www.federalreserve.gov/publications/files/money-and-payments-20220120.pdf
Fed Chair Jerome Powell has argued that introducing a US CBDC will undercut demand for crypto. That is one of the Fed’s motivations for producing its white paper. But a lot of the demand for cryptocurrencies, such as bitcoin, is from the global underground economy, whether for illegal drug purchases on the dark web, sanctions evasion by Russian oligarchs, capital flight, money laundering, or tax evasion.
There is no getting around the need for strict regulation of advanced economies’ cryptocurrency use now, and of other countries’ CBDCs as they come into international use. The Fed’s reluctance to rush into launching a digital dollar is understandable, but that is no excuse for the slow pace of regulatory reform.
Quite another pathetic effort from a well heeled group who could and should do so much better to provide broad, societal benefit, rather than heaps of benefit for the chosen few
Gold will shine again ... and again
the gnome.
DASUT,
The Airsurveys do not have the same resolution as the seismic surveys. This is a physical impossibility. What would be good to know is what the coverage of the Respective surveys are, parameters of surveys and what informatIon they are getting from the surveys, and how they are using this information to target BETTER to make DISCOVERIES SOONER.
the gnome
Dear Mr T, $900 cash costs means much higher aisc so Candid has a point; it may not be quite as bad as he suggests but profits will likely halve unless gold shoots up which is looking increasingly unlikely if it hasn’t yet, despite soaring inflation and ultra low interest rates. The company could pay a special dividend as Candid asks, or a share buyback, but more useful would be to use the cash to keep paying us a dividend as the profits shrink so won’t be there to cover it imho. It will also need cash from this pot, or to borrow which is getting more expensive, to do the much needed new Egyptian exploration with no promise of finding anything.
Dasut - I agree Mr Horgan and his team from Toro have brought some improvements.
In regards to our shared responsibility to ask questions - I have to admit I have never called in myself - the time difference being an issue (but not a good excuse!)
I'm going to email IR re: the seismic survey but I rarely get a response. I'm on the naughty list. Actually I had my LinkedIn account suspended yesterday - they said I 'appeared to be using automated means' to operate my account. I have no idea what they are implying - perhaps it's simply some corrective action due to the reports/flags I get from those (Centamin IR?) trying to hush my inconvenient questions - but it's back up and running now after I agreed to follow the rules (which I still haven't an idea how were broken)
We'll see if the persecution continues.
All the best !
Cowichan, I am not disagreeing with you I am just pointing you to the shared information that is currently known by the company. I would suggest the seismic survey along with the drilling that they have undertaken has enabled the new guys to push for more such as the air surveys.
I do think that the reports and presentations we have seen over the last 12 months have been far more professional and enlightening but I agree we do need to be brought more into the fold.
We also need to do our bit by asking questions when we get the opportunity during the phone ins.
Well noted about the 3d seismic survey which would have cost a few $m. I have seen nothing in Sukari, but many other companies have such data sets and they have proved to be very valuable. Simply it will give you the best image of the geology, based on density and/or velocity contrasts, down to 2 kms or more depending ont he sources they used (thumpers). It has shown the existence of intrusives, by virtue of their lack of internal contrasts. If properlly done and processed, it wil provide information on the geometry of major structures, geometry of lithologies, and alteration. It can map out rock strength, and has been used in planning open pit mines, by recognising and mapping steep faults which may have a negative impact on the pit walls, and not be recogonised in vertical drill holes.
http://www.dmec.ca/getattachment/d9857f40-92d6-4d51-97ca-ee45b82ae5d8/Resources/Exploration-17/Demonstrating-why-3D-seismic-data-are-assets-for-e.aspx
In general the presentation of exploration results pre the present management has been paltry and poor. The investors have a right to know in my opinion.
cheers
the gnome
Dasut - I'm not sure if we understand each other.
The seismic survey covers an extensive area - 10km lines , etc. with the goal of finding NEW porphyry deposits in the greater Sukari area. Nothing has been shared about those results. Apart from the current open pit and underground the nearby extensions and satellites remain a mystery.
I encourage everyone to watch the video of Perseus seismic survey. The point being a lot of information is gathered covering a very large area.
Would it be too technical for the average shareholder to understand if the results were shared? Other companies do it all the time. It's called promotion. Besides, let shareholders decide what is relevant.
And as far as Mizoglit's comment about keeping it secret in case of competitors. Well, Centamin is the only one able to mine Sukari and the surrounding area for possibly decades. And potential suitors will want or already have access to the survey info - it's only fair to shareholders that the market gets to price the 'potential' of a new porphyry discovery/extensions/satellite deposits beforehand.
And what is the alternative? Nah, I don't need Centamin to behave like every other miner and actually share info like this? That kind of attitude isn't logical for a shareholder (like Mizolglit claims to be) but perhaps he/she isn't what they appear.
There was also mention of a possible Bonanza find in the open pit.
Without giving more info confidential to competetitors, there was no more they could report.
Cowichan you may need to have a read of the company presentation relating to the resource geology back in September last year as whilst not specifically mentioning the seismic survey the report goes into far more detail than would be gained from a stand alone seismic survey.
Not sure what more we can be told about the porphyry?
The more company interest - the higher the share price
Tweet from Mining Catalyst
https://twitter.com/MiningCatalyst/status/1488929826371084294
Start watching video at 5:45 to see seismic survey results from Perseus' Yaouré Gold Mine in central Côte d’Ivoire from 2020
https://youtu.be/2MuC-pA6jzU
Remember, Centamin had a similar seismic survey done at Sukari as outlined in this market update in 2018/2019:
------------------------------>>>
In 2018, the Company began a multi-staged geo-seismic programme to create a 2D
and 3D architecture of the Sukari license up to a 1.5km depth, with the
objective of identifying additional porphyries and resource potential. A 2D
seismic survey and Full Wave Sonic bore hole log was run across the main
Sukari structures.
Throughout Q2, three 10km 2D seismic lines were set out in an east-west and
north-south orientation, with final ground preparation to be completed in
early Q3, ahead of the full seismic acquisition.
Late in Q2 two surface drill rigs arrived on site to commence multiple work
programmes, including supporting the seismic drill programme; geotechnical
drilling for the new tailings storage facility site; and drilling priority
regional greenfield exploration targets.
<<<--------------------------
My Thoughts:
I feel that Centamin shareholders should have already been provided the results of these surveys. After all we paid for them.
Think about it - it is highly likely any potential suitor (like Barrick) would be granted access to this info already - as well, several if not all of those 5 employees that swapped positions between Barrick & Centamin would have seen the results (the latest who left for Barrick most intimately familiar with the details)
Isn't it time shareholders are informed?
Withholding information is what led to the blindside waste clearing project that's costing us $350 million to catch-up. Let's not get blindsided again - for all we know there could be a huge porphyry deposit already identified yet only know by suitors, former employees and new Barrick hires.
Centamin touts it is making ESG a priority. They can start by improving governance - BOD , please inform your shareholders of the results of the Sukari 2018/2019 seismic surveys NOW.
Hi Tibbs - it does appear at some point starting fresh might be the only alternative to drowning in debt!
There aren't too many people.
We just need to stop wasting food (and the resources used to produce the wasted food).
https://www.theworldcounts.com/challenges/people-and-poverty/hunger-and-obesity/food-waste-statistics/story
'If “Food Waste” were a country it would be the world’s 3rd largest emitter of CO2 after China and the US.'
'An area the size of the US, India, and Egypt combined is used to grow food that is never eaten.'
I don’t like to speak against the elimination of poverty but the problem is at the moment if we eliminate poverty we will simply increase the speed at which we are making the planet uninhabitable for humans (maybe not such a bad thing).
The planet cannot support the current human population even with a significant number living in varying degrees of poverty, imagine if we were all consuming at the level most of us take for granted.
The root cause of all humanity’s problems whether economic, environmental or social stems from our mindless goal of achieving perpetual growth in an environment with finite resources, unless we take action to cease population growth & indeed dramatically reduce the current human population we, as a species are doomed. Considering our inability as a society to make hard decisions that involve us putting up with any form of hardship I personally am betting on the doom outcome :)
https://twitter.com/centaminplc/status/1488818944827928578?s=21
Hi Candid,
You aren't including the capex due to be spent to ensure the sustainability of the mine for the next 12+ years.
Like trying to compare apples with pears!
Costs have gone up, and will stay up for a while, however the is to be able to produce 500k oz at c.$900 cash costs for the long term, that requires needs the capex invested which hits AISCs.
That makes Sukari a top quartile Tier 1 low cost producer globally!
Hi Cowichan,
So scrap the present unfit for purpose system, turn all the debt registers to zero and have a fresh start
II. Total debt relief by multilateral institutions—Would it help the attack on worldwide poverty?
What is the argument for total debt cancellation? Some argue that the further reduction of debt service obligations would allow the HIPCs to make more poverty-related investments. But the HIPC Initiative is already changing the picture. So far, after debt relief, social expenditures in the 23 HIPCs mentioned above are projected to rise by an average of some US$1.7 billion per year during 2001-2002. Most of these resources will be directed toward health, education, HIV/AIDS programs, basic infrastructure and governance reform. And contrary to the statements of some debt campaigners, HIPCs will spend on average much more—not less—on priority social investments than on debt service. After HIPC relief, these countries will spend about 2 percent of GDP on debt service-well below the level in other developing countries-compared to about 7 percent on social expenditures.
To be sure, the HIPCs have a continuing need for targeted investment that benefits the poor. But the critical question is whether complete debt cancellation is the most effective and equitable way of supporting these efforts.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Government_debt
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2005/jun/11/uk.g8
https://www.imf.org/external/np/exr/ib/2001/071001.htm
This article is more than 3 years old.
Government debt is finite, or so we have been told. There is an absolute limit to the amount of debt that a government can issue. If it exceeds that limit, the government will default. Debt is the accumulated deficits of all past years, so persistently running deficits means that at some point the dreaded default trigger will be reached and the government will default. Therefore, governments must observe fiscal discipline and avoid deficits like the plague.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/francescoppola/2018/04/17/everything-youve-been-told-about-government-debt-is-wrong/?sh=315cd796314f
European equities traded higher in Wednesday's pre-market hours amid earnings season. Earlier, Santander unveiled results for the fourth quarter and the year 2021. In addition, Investors will closely monitor news on the coronavirus and the situation in Ukraine.
At 7:30 am CET the DAX gained 0.37%, while the CAC 40 added 0.49%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.43%.
The euro and the pound were flat at 7:28 am CET, selling for $ 1.12683 and $ 1.35236, respectively.
Baha Breaking the News (BBN) / JGA
Happy hump y’al
Geodrill are very good operators ... great to have them on board.
PART 2
The risk of inflation
In the meantime, if lower interest rates do not lead to business expansion and higher production (and there are good reasons to suppose they may not) then the net result is a larger amount of money circulating in the economy with no new production happening.
This will eventually set off inflationary pressures, which make savers worse off and provide a disincentive for saving. But saving by households is fundamental to making funds available for businesses to borrow.
In the absence of increased production this extra money may also make its way to non-productive financial assets such as equity and houses, setting off speculative bubbles in those markets. HAPPENING NOW
Why might businesses not expand, even with lower interest rates? In deep recessions it is not the lack of credit that holds them back, it is that they cannot sell their goods at prevailing prices. This reduces demand for labour, further reducing demand for goods because more customers are unemployed.
It becomes a vicious cycle of insufficient demand, where the key issue is not credit or liquidity but rather a crisis of CONFIDENCE. Monetary policy loses its teeth at this point, leaving fiscal policy (via deficit financing or tax cuts) as the only option.
It’s all about TRUST ...
However, government borrowing is a long-term game. The entire system, whether deficit financing or printing money, is based on trust — that the government will honour its debt.
Simply put, no government could satisfy all its creditors if they wanted their money back at the same time! But as long as the government keeps making the interest payments on the loans, or at least has the capacity to pay back some of those creditors (sometimes by borrowing even more), the economy remains stable. The juggler’s balls stay in the air.
If for some reason trust in a government goes, watch the balls come crashing down. Any hint of default or not honouring debt obligations will lead to long-term damage to a government’s reputation and its future ability to borrow. No one will want to hold the government’s debt in the form of government bonds.
When that happens, we see capital flight — money flows out of the country as people seek a return elsewhere. The value of the currency goes through the floor, with catastrophic effects on the economy, such as occurred during the Asian financial crisis in 1997.
The economic crisis MANY COUNTRIES is facing is real and deep. Attempting to cancel debt would only reduce trust in the government and risk making the crisis worse.
According to proponents of MMT (modern Money Theory), a country that issues its own currency can never run out and can never become insolvent in its own currency. It can make all payments as they come due. Therefore, there is no risk of defaulting on its debt...
Lots to think about, but what you dont do is take on debt in someone elses paper promises. USA rule book
best
the Gnome
You are into something very interesting. Debt is almost meaningless if it is owed to yourself, in your own currency. Imagine owing yourself $100. What interest, ...etc
So, what does happen when the government wants to spend more than it raises in tax revenue? It needs to borrow money (known as deficit financing), and so instructs the Treasury to issue debt.
There are three major types of debt: treasury bills, treasury notes and treasury bonds.. Treasury bills have the shortest maturity (less than a year) while treasury bonds have maturities of ten years or more. They all must be paid back in the future.
The debt is typically held by banks, institutional investors and managed funds (such as Kiwisaver accounts). Because the government is not expected to default on the loans, the debt is considered to be secure. So, these bonds can typically be issued at lower interest rates than bonds from other financial entities.
Where government debt goes
When the Res BANK engages in “quantitative easing” it essentially buys up these government issued bonds. To do this, it prints currency to pay for the bonds and this currency goes into circulation, increasing the money supply.
Quantitative easing floods the system with liquidity — the amount of money readily available for investment and spending. In turn, this should put downward pressure on interest rates because money is cheaper to borrow when there is more of it.
The Reserve/Central Bank can also lower the official cash rate (OCR) to push retail interest rates (on mortgages and savings deposits) down. The aim in both cases is to make borrowing cheaper in the hope that businesses will borrow money to invest, in turn creating more jobs.
If the RES BANK is buying government bonds from the banks and investors who had bought them earlier, it follows that the creditors have been paid off. So why can’t the government simply write off this debt?
Firstly, this takes away the RES BANKs ability to act as an independent entity, which in itself is problematic. But even so, the debt does not disappear, it just takes the form of that additional amount of money floating around the economy.
At some point this extra money will end up being deposited in commercial banks and be held as reserves which earn interest from the RES BANK.
The currency in circulation is also legal tender backed by the authority of the government. If no one else wants to accept it, holders of this money should be able to sell it back to the RES BANK for something of value in return (US dollars, say).
One way or another, sooner or later the debt will have to be honoured....END OF PART 1
"By the end of 2020, the Bank of Japan owned 45% of government debt outstanding."
https://twitter.com/DonLawson_/status/1488626926709194752
----------------------------->>>
If a government owes money to a branch of itself - is it really debt?
Why doesn't Japan buy up all the remaining debt - then forgive all the outstanding debt too?
Thoughts anyone...
Hello MrBond, I tend to ignore a lot of comments, especially from repeat offenders.
I had to teach myself that in daily living there are people I regard as worth avoiding rather than listening to and sadly I’ve had to apply the same wisdom when choosing what I read on this message forum.
Some people are simply “hardwork” and best left alone.
I’m sure they’ve noticed but I’m no one’s fodder.
Best of to all!