Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

More smoke and mirrors.
Where is a disclosed valuation of each company.
What is the basis for extending and the agenda for the discussions.

So, if the Bod do request an extension, is that a sign that they wish to proceed with discussions?

assessing possible merger ! https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/endeavour-centamin-agree-assess-possible-081704032.html

Today's RNS seems to put things into Centamins hands, if they do not request an extension to the 31Dec offer deadline Endeavour will not make an offer. Since Centamin don't want an offer and certainly not an undervalued one, why would they extend.

So, is this good or bad?
I'm struggling to see how the BoD have now seemingly had a change of heart!

Trump's plan to smash world trade rules
Jacob Greber

Washington | The Trump administration is vowing privately to swing its focus next year to breaking down and rebuilding the World Trade Organisation after clinching a "phase one" ceasefire deal with China to end their all-consuming 21-month trade war.

After rounds of bruising tit-for-tat escalations, setbacks and recriminations that have sown uncertainty throughout the global economy, Beijing and Washington are now rushing to nail down the final details of their accord before a formal signing – mostly likely in January.

Should be a great year for gold! Zero interest rates, zero growth ...etc

best
the gnome

Stocks in Europe pointed to a higher open to kick off the week on Monday as investors digested the latest news from around the continent and braced for a fresh batch of economic data.

Market participants will be on the lookout for the latest economic data, including preliminary composite PMI figures for the UK, EU and the EU's largest economy, Germany.

In politics, following the UK Conservative Party's sweeping victory in last week's election, which has made Brexit more certain than ever, Britain is now faced with a new potential crisis, with Scotland reiterating its intention to try and break free from the Kingdom. Reacting to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's earlier remarks, Scottish First Minister Nicola Sturgeon called Johnson out over the weekend, saying that the island's northernmost constituent country cannot be held in the union against its will.

The DAX jumped 0.44% at 7:34 am CET. The CAC 40 followed suit, advancing 0.29% at 7:35 am CET, while the FTSE 100 gained 0.53% a minute later.

The pound rose 0.33% against the greenback, buying 1.33884 at 7:36 am CET, while the euro climbed 0.19% versus the dollar, selling for 1.11380 at 7:27 am CET.

Breaking the News / GG

Good to hear from you Bob!
Agree entirely on your comments about the market makers!

Good points Rebess,
The unresolved court case has kept others at bay, but then they don't have the inside connections of Mr Eygpt (Sawiris).
All EMRA really cares about is keeping the gold (profit share) coming out of Sukari, of course they may well have a preference to be in partnership with an Egyptian, perhaps Hamdy was on to something ,remember his gripe was always really about EMRA, never Centamin the company!
https://www.sharesmagazine.co.uk/news/shares/centamin-eyes-end-of-legal-pains
https://www.theguardian.com/business/marketforceslive/2012/oct/30/centamin-share-suspension-gold-egypt
Centamin need not be a one tier mine, that iissue is easily solved by exploiting some of it's ample reserves in other areas of West Africa.
Most of the RNS's which are CFD trades are issued by Numis,RBC etc on behalf of their clients, so it's virtually imposable to tell who is really holding the short position.
Also some of the analysts/journalists who write these articles are being influenced by others.
i don't agree that the market is saying no more, the fact is there is only one bidder and there is unlikely to be any others whilst the court case is unresolved because they don't have the Egyptian connections that Endeavour does.
So the Endeavour strategy is offer no more and push the price down by shorting which they hope will panic share holders into taking what's on offer rather than what the company is worth!
if this Endeavour bid fails then any subsequent offer will be considerably more, it will have to be because the another quarters productions figures will have been revealed and it will be evident that now Jeremy Langford has a free hand production is getting back up to steam again!

Let us assume that Sawiris is sufficiently in control of EMRA that he can obtain a tier one asset at bargain basement price , what does that say to all other possible investors in Egypt. We are not as small investors party to the proffessional machinations of large Corporations but their expertise is far beyond our wildest dreams. Interesting to compare the holdings of say Blackrock and other global investors in Centamin to those they hold in Endeavour and correlate the cash
return values over a 5 year period. Happy to share my research with those sufficiently interested but caution in that an 8 % return over a short term is of far more interest to a professional market maker than the POSSIBILITY of 20% on the longer term.

I am satisfied at 120 ish as I hold from when we were waiting for the crusher plant to arrive from South America, and dividends have been very welcome to my pension pot held in successive ISAS since. Indeed wobbles when they went to 23p but held on. Have followed this board and rarely post but but Institutional holders are the key to what happens next big time. Interesting that shorts are at an all time low . But what do I know. Next 21 days should prove both interesting and informative. Recent Board shuffle equally to be considered.

Thankfully not totally in Centamin but may wish I had been but no bottle.

Regards Bob

Thanks Rebess and Sotolo, as always nice to hear other (much wiser) views for your responses. Such a great blog, I would have been long gone if it hadnt been the sharing of interesting information and the friendly nature of all on board this somewhat frustrating journey!!

Quite so Rees’s. Then the question is how much more would Endeavour offer, the market is saying no more. I think other bidders may be unlikely as don’t have the Egyptian connection endeavour does, so just hope Endeavour sweeten their offer a bit. Will still be disappointing for us as 2020 could be a good year
Also just wondering does anyone her hold Endeavour, amazing how many of the bigger holders who issue the RNS’s do.

Hi dealts
The dots join-up here way beyond the bid itself. - The Annnual report this year 'Headlined' the exposure to being a one-mine operation. How nicely that stament has fitted in with the rationale promoted by Endeavour. - The mysterys surrounding some of the actions now begin to fall into place. - The 'Hints', which none of us could understand at the time, which caused the SP to plummet. Pardeys involvement. - The Sawiris connections. - EMRA coming out in support and so on and so on. Many of the unexplained features of 2019 now become clear. - This is a done-deal in my opinion. - It started in 2018 and 2019 was manouvered in such a way as to accomodate the situation we now find ourselves in. - By a little stretch of the imagination you could even see a connection with the mystery of the uncontested court-case and all that has involved. Another mystery that if truth was known, all formed part of a strategy to one day take control of Centamin.

Would Endeavour have had any knowledge on the latest figures before making a bid,as I cannot believe that they would not have an insight to how things were progressing,I am also a little concerned that we are below the current offer at the moment, I have been topping up a little lately,with fingers well crossed,surely luck must change here for us L.T.H. Would be great if some other company thought we were worth a bid that would settle the nerves somewhat!. G.L.A.

It is certainly strange that after the latest warnings it was announced that Pardy would leave but stay on till a successor is found, and now with supposedly better figures coming up he is leaving straight away. So either figures have failed again or do with endeavour.
Also not that encouraging that Cey share price is below the initial merger price??

Let's all remember that a business transaction like Endeavor is attempting involves a great deal of persuasion.

Mark Bristow said the Barrick deal took three years to hammer out. Who knows how many meetings and conversations took place during that time with him personally but once you have the CEO on side it becomes a matter of getting the board interested.

So far we've assumed Mr Pardey was 'retired' because of poor performance but we really have no idea. If his retirement has more to do with a favorability towards Endeavor then one could make an argument that the board is cleaning house - ensuring any new CEO follows the direction of the board.

I'm of the mind that since the board has been growing — with younger appointees and a healthy dose of women representation they are not interested in falling prey to a value destroying merger. Good news for us.

Lets hope Pardy was not a inside job mmmmmmmmmmm

As we say lets hope the next update hits performance targets and gets the SP rising

RBC statement-
"Investors were increasingly sceptical of single-asset gold companies, preferring less risky diverse companies with assets in several different jurisdictions"

As a Centmain investor I am an suspicious of opportunistic highly indebted gold mining companies with mediocre reserves and performance that have parasitical intentions!

Hi Downhill
No, not a fan of conspiracy theories, just a LTH with long experience of how Centamin operates.

Sounds like your a fan of conspiracy theories?

It's possible that what we are seeing is a charade, a pre-rehearsed response, designed to display resistance and rejection when all the time it's a done deal. - Why am I so cynical? - I'll let you answer that one.

Surely not!
There is absolutely nothing to be gained by allowing this take over to proceed. Yes, a single mine is risky and susceptible to periods of poor production, but in this case we would become the cash cow and have to provide for the E shareholders.
Not doubt the dividend would be much lower, if not disappear.
If Rutherford has been brought in to 'Get Endeavor Done', he needs to be sent a message from the PI's that it is not on!

Because of the rising pound the Endeavour offer has actually fallen and currently £1.22

From what I recall share trading volumes usually drop off considerably his time of the year (Christmas) this can lead to some more erratic or amplified share price movements.

A similar article based on RBC press release
https://www.miningmx.com/top-story/39577-centamin-may-view-endeavour-offer-with-fresh-eyes-following-rutherford-appointment/