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Yes Steve its all about Centiment, :-), as the last time when it hit its highest.
But time has past ,its just History .
The future prospects are important ,not re-iterations of what happened in the past.
If people have no confidence in a new CEO, the the solution is simple.
Because if you think you are going to change them ,then you are dellusional.
But some are persistent, but for what, trying to change Centiment ;-), a little like the arrogant King Canute.
But after all this is just a Bulletin Board , so I suppose it is the normal.
That's way too simplistic Sotolo- the SP never reacts like this- sentiment, and the key drivers that drive CEY sentiment is key for the SP. As is beating the targets set.
2022
US $25million ; Doropo Pre-Feasibility Study $7million ; Doropo Definitive Feasibility Study $8million ; ABC Project $4million ; Eastern Desert Blocks $3million ; Batie West License & Admin $3million
https://www.centamin.com/media/2477/centamin-investor-presentation-jan2022.pdf pg 26
vs
2023
Exploration spend is budgeted at US$30 million, including US$23 million for the pre-development study work on the Doropo Project ; ( leaving $7 million split between Eastern Desert & ABC presumably )
Questions to ask: 1) was the 2022 Doropo budget not spent ? How did the year pass without it being spent ?
Given the exploration spending for 2023 at Doropo is for the same items as 2022 and the fact the Doropo permit containing the primary resource had expired in June 2022 ( see PR- 334 Granted 06-12-2013 Expired 06-11-2022 ) https://portals.landfolio.com/CoteDIvoire/en/
One must assume the 2022 spend was halted pending permit renewal approval .
Or are they are going to spend twice/double on the same items ?
Mr Tibbles, that is just my reading, and I think Kees is as ever right: in 2023 ounces mined are predicted to be back up to 465k, with a mid predicted aisc of $1325 cey would be making around $600 an ounce at current gold price or $300k, or hopefully decently over £100k with Emra and royalty removed. Which would put us back on a pe of 13 our historic norm or less as I have been very conservative. Of course we are very geared to any gold rise or fall, but. With luck gold may rise to take account of t he rising aisc, tho we will never get back to the days before the Emra profit share.
Good point Tibbs about the voluntary sacrificing of $367m worth of fuel subsidies that was tied-up in the legal framework of the original contract, in the same way that the 50/50 split was tied-up. In other words the T&C's. - Why would any company operating under shall we say normal commercial terms and normal rules and regulations and obligations of contract, walk away from what is their legal right? - As you say, what would have happened if Centamin had decided to renege on the 5/50 commitment? - Something doesn't add up here in terms of commercial-logic. - Given the parlous state of the Egyptian economy, could an accommodation of adjustment to the 50/50 split not have been made?- 60/40 as you suggest or even 70/30, whatever, for the number of years it would take to balance. - How on earth can a FTSE 250 companies affairs be interfered with in such a way? - Who's running Centamin?
Upside target 1950-52 this should fly this afternoon!
Hi Paul,
Yes indeed so would I like to reach £3 and indeed we could well have done were it not ior having to pay for Pardey & Youssef's pile of crap too be cleared up!
That said and no one seems really bothered on here but $367m in what can be described as illegally or unjustifiably withdrawn diesel subsidy would have also gone some considerable way to paying to put things right at Sukari, but no Centamin decided it was better to walk away and not risk losing the appeal?
Unbelievable, the fuel subsidy was part of the original concession agreement and that is enshrined in Egyptian law.
If it is OK for EMRA to change the terms of the concession then why shouldn't Centamin amend the profit share to 60% Centamin 40% EMRA, see how that would go down!
When the fuel subsidy was withdrawn Centamin layers stated that Centamin had a very strong case foe the appeal , however if the case was found in Centamins favour then the Egyptian government would have to pay back the withdrawn subsidy but that would be impossible in one lump because of the dire state of Egyptian finances, so the only alternative would be stage payment from profit share , that wouldn't be popular to say the least!
So by coincidence now it seems Law 32 is ratified, the court case goes away and Centamin have thrown in the towel on getting back their, our money!
Thanks Mr T. I,d feel a lot happier if we reached the £3 a share that Sotolo spoke of before all the waste hit the fan! I'd even get some gold plated steel toecaps for my gardening boots :D
I have the feeling that with a bit of good news or good luck that we could have a jump----------but looking over the years, £1-30 ish seems a "normal" sort of price for us, without having problems.
However------£1-30 would be ok with me with decent dividiends.
Well said Rebess,
The world and certainly the UK is in a terrible mess, the present political, market and monetary systems have been tinkered about with and fudged to cover up the inequality, unfairness ,sheer selfishness and greed of the privileged crooks that run them that its no longer possible to cover it up any longer and the only solution which is to scrap it all and start again is unpalatable to the deceiving,self serving and incompetent greedy political leaders the world over!
I think he is saying that the 'Vortex' created by a crashing/sinking market will suck everything down with it. - Gold included.
It begs the question - 'Where is safe'?
Hi Paul,
I am very hesitant to post anything now that may be prove not to work out, as predicted or hoped for, or anything that may be misconstrued as investment advice or that might influence members investment strategy or decisions.
However as you understandably after all that has happened in past years may feel somewhat let down or disillusioned I thought you may like to read an opinion on the latest Centamin Q4 report from Kees Dekker mining analyst that has come my way.
You may recall that Kees was the only mining analyst to warn of the way that Sukari was being operated in 2015 & 2018, his concerns were subsequently proven to be justified.
Kees opinion on the latest Q4 report
"The company came out of this year not to battered with only US$17 million negative net cash flow. Having passed he capex peak and with the rising gold price next year should be a lot better. My understanding is that the share price has already reflected that and Centamin outperformed the market last year."
I hope that may help you feel a little more upbeat!
Tibbs
Whatever anyone thinks of Harry Dent .
He obviously makes a living by his predictions.
Just goes to show there is one on every corner, ;-)
Yep- Gold, like stocks, can only go up or down... when people are right the first time every says wow, until they are wrong- of course some are never wrong like MADOFF lol... they make money from clicks and subs and are pointless. Look at the last 30years and the charts for pretty much all major investments people make, property, stocks, commodities etc etc. and the times there is a crash- if you add up all the weeks over time - you can calculate the odds of predicting a big crash eg >25% drop v just trading on the chances of your investments going up in 30 years... and yes, I've seen the film the big short, and the stories of the lucky few who got in on recent oil price crash, but what these stories fail to mention in the millions who lost out whilst waiting and predicting these things. I held tight in March2020 and markets are way higher now than before and if you listened to all the doomsayers we should have been at least 50% lower across most markets... the nutty thing is, the doomsayers are still banging on, and those that listened are still sitting on their 30% losses when they bailed ~April2020 on pure fear and waiting - but it will take about a 50% crash now for them to justify their sell and break even, such as been growth since then...
Likely Harry Dent would have sold "Snake oil" in the wild west!
Cowichan this from Wikipedia on Harry Dent’ forecasts and performance:
In 2012 the "Dent Tactical Advantage ETF," symbol DENT, was de-listed having consistently under-performed the market for three years while at the same time charging an egregiously high 1.65% management fee.[7]
In 2012, he began writing weekly articles for the free investment newsletter Survive & prosper, now known as: Economy & Markets, which offers investment advice guided by his belief that a major economic crash is inevitable and that it will drop the DOW all the way to 3,300. As of early 2013, he has amended his predictions slightly to an expectation that the financial crash will begin between the end of 2013 and the first half of 2014.[citation needed]
In 2013, Dent predicted the market would crash again in the Summer of 2013 and would take a further year and a half to recover.[8]
In 2014, while promoting his book The Demographic Cliff in Australia, he predicted a major Australian housing market correction beginning in 2014 after an even bigger one in China.[9] He also predicted that the price of gold would fall to USD$700 an ounce, and has since revised this prediction to 2017.[10]
On December 10, 2016, Dent predicted that the Dow Jones Industrial average could fall 17,000 points as a result of Donald Trump's election win. Less than two weeks later, Dent reversed his opinion and thinks there is short term growth for the US stock market, but demographic forces will keep the economic growth stagnant in the longer term.[11]
Larry Swedroe, writing for CBS Money Watch asks, "Why do people listen to Harry Dent in light of his obvious inability to accurately predict the future?"[14]
Gold may go any way and no one knows so I would ignor the so called pundits and stick to the tea leaves. All the best
Major European stock markets traded higher in the premarket session on Thursday while key companies in the area are releasing their financial statements. Earlier, SAP SE announced its revenue in the fourth quarter of 2022 advanced by 6%, while for 2022 went up by 11% to €30.9 billion. During the day, other European firms, such as Louis Vuitton and Volvo, will present their results.
The DAX gained 0.62% at 8:00 am CET, as the CAC 40 added 0.73%, and the FTSE 100 rose 0.16%. The Euro Stoxx 50 went up 0.95% a minute later.
The euro improved by 0.10% against the dollar at 7:56 am CET, selling for $1.09251, and the pound grew by 0.06% to go for $1.24048 a minute later.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-01-25/Gold-to-be-hardest-hit-commodity-in-massive-crash-bear-market-in-early-stages-Harry-Dent.html
"Gold is not a safe haven," he maintained. "I'm predicting that gold goes down to $900 to $1,000. That will be a lot less than other commodities… that is still a 40 to 45 percent fall from here."
------------------------------------>>>>
What's this upside-down topsy-turvy world in which we are living?
There is a fair bit going on in the debt markets and in inflation. Some interesting articles by Ray Dalio
We all know that there is no real debt limit because what is called a debt limit never actually limits the debt. It’s a farce that works like a bunch of alcoholics who write laws to enforce drinking limits, and when a limit is reached, they do a farcical negotiation that temporarily eliminates the limit which allows them to have the next drinking binge until they reach the next limit at which time they go through the next farcical negotiation and continue to binge. I gather that this is the 79th farcical negotiation that has taken place.
Not only does this tragically comical ritual lead most people to be confident that the debt limit will be gotten around, but it also tells us that those running our political system lack discipline or they tacitly agree that binge borrowing is OK. I think it makes clear that the long-term prognosis is for the debt bingeing to go on until a crisis ends this dynamic. However, most people seem comforted that the debt limit won’t trigger a debt default and don’t worry about the debt bingeing continuing. That raises the justifiable questions: Is it a good or bad thing that we are getting around this debt limit? Are high debt levels and high levels of new borrowings that require high levels of government selling of debt assets not risky? I think those are reasonable questions as we have been hearing warnings of a debt Armageddon for decades yet none has occurred.
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/farce-consequences-debt-limit-ray-dalio/
I am on the beach and throwing a prawn ont he BBQ
HAPPY AUSTRALIA DAY
The Gnome
wtf has that got to do with centamin, keep it gold.
Hi Razors Edge .
Its 21.00 Gold 1948 but dropping a little.
When Shangai opens midnight ,will be the real tester.
But overall the right direction.
On the trot since 4:30 currently $1941.56
+ .2%
'In North Africa Centamin comes in and out of favour in Egypt, while in Ethiopia it looks like KEFI might finally be about to get the long-awaited Tulu Kapi project off the ground.'
You are RICH!
im scratching around, making jam on the fire and making my own wine!
Im hoping that Centamin does start to look up soon. I think I've been here ten years and only about level , but had the divis. If Centamin did manage a big leap (say --up to £1.40 or £1.50) , I'd consider cashing some in and getting some more post office IDS shares as they should eventually start moving again and also paying a divi.
No mention of Centamin?
Cowichan
Why dont you cut and paste the facts as you see them. I would like to have a look
best
the Gnome