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Sunak giving Ireland over to EU regulation (as I suspect will happen) is the first step to the whole of the UK being under EU regulation. So much for taking back control.
@mrtibbles Than you for your reply and courtesy. I have absolutely no problem with open debate on any forum and would encourage it.
My concern here is with the possible conflation of ongoing events. I also have little time for the romanticism of any wars though am able on occasion to understand some wars on utilitarian grounds etc.
Regarding Northern Ireland and the gift comment.
The DUP constitutes less than 21% of the electorate vote in Northern Ireland. They supported Brexit which they knew removed the very foundation of peace and acceptance of a status quo among the majority of people on the island of Ireland. ( A status quo by the way which left NI as part of the UK). Most NI people voted not to leave the EU as most understood it and the consequences. The DUP now bring down Stormont yet this is the parliament they support . They argue that is what the “other side” did previously over another matter but the other side don’t support Stormont on a longterm existential basis. Like Turkeys the DUP voted for their Christmas and it astounds me how little the British media and public understand this. In my opinion Sunak should not be held to ransom by a minority in NI or the UK for that matter. Boris and his like bring his narcissism to this either out of ignorance or malice, but which ever it is - it is to serve his own ends.
Hi Confluence, thank you for and interesting post, regarding your fair comment on the relevance of this conversation, It's not unusual on this forum during quiet times or during "Closed period" or even very difficult times, and there have been plenty of those, that over weekends one discussion or comment will lead into something else, it keeps the forum alive or ticking over and healthy, no doubt though that as soon as one of the members has some Centamin related news it will be posted!
There is a great deal of misunderstanding about what has taken place in Ireland
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZI3nGVHxFI8
Ireland’s history is brought vividly to life as REVOLUTION IN COLOUR explores the struggle for Irish independence during the early decades of the 20th Century through restored and colourised newsreel footage, and photographs from the period.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReGXyZRiDS4
https://www.nationalarchives.gov.uk/cabinetpapers/themes/nationalism-war-independence.htm
https://www.neversuchinnocence.com/impact-of-conflict-irish-war-of-independence
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Executions_during_the_Irish_Civil_War
@MaryBr190 I couldn’t let your comment go. You cannot “gift” Northern Ireland to Ireland anymore than you can gift Cumbria to England. Geographically, demographically and now economically Ireland is a single entity. Brexit has simply hastened Irish political reunification and it is ironic, that the son of Indian parents helps “return” rather than “gifts” the territory if you like. What this all has to do with a gold mining company in Egypt? Yes it is interesting, oh wait another former English colony…..
I remember when the Brexit vote was announced telling my English workmates that Brexit had the potential to cause serious problems in Northern Ireland.
It turns out I was correct.
The DUP supported Brexit but have been bleating on about the protocol when if fact they should have been sharing responsibility for the mess that they helped create. I believe that in their warped view Brexit would have put a border back on Ireland, instead of where it ended up between mainland and Northern Ireland.
I agree with tibbs - we either need to re-join the EU and remove all borders or join the single market which will result in the same.
The main thrust of the brexiteers argument was brexit would allow the UK to take back control of borders and stop illegal immigrants...this has clearly and spectacularly failed.
The second main argument was trade deals with the world....this has also failed spectacularly. The US for example will not sign a deal with UK until the mess around northern Ireland is dealt with to its satisfaction. Other trade deals leave the UK no better off than before.
Fishermen feel lied to
Farmers Feel lied to
The country feels lied to....and they are right!
The problem-
Let’s say you were trying to sell Welsh lamb to Ireland and, after the end of the transition period, the EU charged a tariff on British lamb imports. Under the rules detailed above, you could (instead of shipping directly to Dublin, incurring a tariff) ship your lamb from Wales to Belfast (with no tariff) and then over land to Dublin (with no tariff). In effect you’d have got your lamb into Dublin tariff-free, making a mockery of EU tariff rules.
So the UK government and the EU have come up with a fix—the border in the Irish sea.
EU tariffs will be applied to selected goods crossing from the rest of the UK into Northern Ireland. Any good which is deemed as “at risk” of moving into the EU after crossing into Northern Ireland will be subject to the EU tariff—a definition of an “at risk” good is yet to be decided.
Experts have said it’s likely that most UK exports to Northern Ireland won’t face a tariff.
But this means there will be customs checks and controls on goods crossing from the rest of the UK into Northern Ireland, in order to ensure the correct tariffs are applied. This also applies to goods entering Northern Ireland from other non-EU countries.
If the “at risk” good crossing into Northern Ireland doesn’t end up in the EU, traders will have paid the EU tariff rate, when they should have paid the UK tariff instead. In those cases, traders will be entitled to a refund from the UK government, provided the UK tariff is lower.
This new protocol replaces the previous Irish backstop in the former withdrawal agreement negotiated by Theresa May. Under the terms of the backstop, if the UK and EU had failed to agree a free trade agreement by the end of the transition period, then the whole of the UK would have entered a “single customs territory” with the EU.
That would have meant no tariffs on goods moving between Great Britain and Northern Ireland. However Northern Ireland alone would have remained aligned to some extra EU rules (to ensure the Irish border remained open), meaning there would have been some quality checks on goods entering Northern Ireland from the rest of the UK.
(So quite a mess with only one obvious solution, rejoin the EU !)
The Boris supposed "Oven Ready Brexit deal"never existed and it is now very apparent, as is the complete failure of the "Brexit deal to deliver any of the supposed advantages to the UK as a whole, so Sunak is stuck between a rack and a hard place!
It has been argued that the new withdrawal agreement will create a “border down the Irish Sea” with checks taking place on goods crossing into Northern Ireland from Great Britain.
It’s correct that goods checks will have to take place. This will kick in at the end of the transition period, unless or until the UK and EU sign a trade agreement superseding it. The transition period would last until December 2020 at the earliest, or at the latest December 2022.
Sunak is an EU shill to sell out UK starting Monday with the gift of NI to Ireland.
Put in place by the Remain MPs Globalist Cabal, the useless idiot is even trying to get Charles embroiled with the Windsor Agreement whilst giving our tanks and hardware to other countries for the puppet of Ukraine.
Still we got the Eurovision so it is all OK.
QE ie printing currency, with nothing to back it is inflationary.
With a huge national debt , the reason the FED has their permanent headache,
FACT CHECK
Viral 'average energy cost' Europe price list is not what it seems
We’ve seen a number of tweets and Facebook posts giving figures for the “average energy costs” in different countries across Europe, which suggest the UK’s energy costs are the highest by far at £2,585 (around €2,960). This claim was also retweeted by Labour MP Karl Turner.
But these prices aren’t “average energy costs” for consumers in those countries. They are wholesale electricity costs for suppliers which were correct for a specific hour on one day back in December.
A map of Europe with the same figures was tweeted on 15 December 2022, with the caption “Comparative energy prices. What's going on?”
The map pictured was clearly taken from the day-ahead market data published on the website of Epox Spot (also known as the European Power Exchange), which is used by around 300 companies across Europe to buy and sell electricity at short notice to meet demand.
A spokesperson for Epox Spot told us that the data corresponded to day-ahead prices per megawatt hour (MWh) of electricity, for delivery on 12 December 2022, specifically for hour 19 (between 6pm and 7pm), and gave us the data that appears to back this up.
These prices are not what consumers pay for energy, or any type of average. They are how much electricity cost companies in those countries for delivery in the 19th hour on 12 December. These hourly prices vary throughout the day, and the £2,585 used for Great Britain was the peak. On average, electricity on that day cost £675 per MWh.
The Household Energy Price Index, which measures consumer energy prices in the capital cities of 33 European countries showed that in January 2023, out of the countries in the post, electricity cost the most in Germany at 54c per kilowatt hour, followed by Denmark, where it was 53c. In the UK it was 47c (42p) while the European average was 29c.
Why is there such a vast difference in average energy costs?
€650 - France
€650 - Belgium
€620 - Spain
€558 - Germany
€558 - Denmark
€546 - Holland
€545 - Austria
€543 - Norway
€476 - Finland
€174 - Poland
€2,960 - UK
— Dave Sumner Smith (@davesumnersmith) February 13, 2023
As others have noted, the list has appeared dozens of times on Twitter since December 2022, and has been retweeted by Labour MP Karl Turner.
But these prices aren’t “average energy costs” for consumers in those countries. They are wholesale electricity costs for suppliers which were correct for a specific hour on one day back in December.
https://fullfact.org/latest/
FACT CHECK
Do Rishi Sunak's claims about hospital discharge funding stack up?
During Prime Minister’s Questions on 8 February, Prime Minister Rishi Sunak made a series of claims about hospital discharge funding. He said part of £14 billion in new health and social care funding will go to a new discharge fund aimed at speeding up hospital discharges in England.
He added that this money was “already making a difference” and that “we can see the numbers of people unnecessarily in hospitals are already reducing, easing the burdens in our accident and emergency departments”.
Over the past two weeks we’ve tried to fact check these claims, but this has been difficult because Number 10 has declined to explain what specific information Mr Sunak was referring to or provide any evidence to back up what he said. The Department of Health and Social Care (DHSC) has given us details of funding set aside to speed up discharge, but has not clarified what Mr Sunak’s claims were based on.
This is disappointing. Politicians making serious claims in public debate should be prepared to explain their claims and support them with evidence. Number 10 has also failed to back up two other claims from Mr Sunak in recent weeks, on A&E patient flow and Labour party funding!
On 1 February, the Prime Minister told the House of Commons that the Labour Party and Sir Keir Starmer are “bankrolled” by the protest group Just Stop Oil. We fact checked this and found no evidence that it was true.
On 8 February, we wrote to the Prime Minister and asked him to back up his claim with evidence or correct the record. He has not responded.
So far, more than 3,700 people have written to the Prime Minister to ask him to correct the record.
As of this week, more than 40,000 people have signed our petition to improve the corrections system in Parliament. Under current rules, the Prime Minister is one of the few MPs who can officially correct the record. But he has not yet chosen to do so!
Reuters Friday February 24, 2023 10:48
NEW YORK, Feb 24 (Reuters) - The Federal Reserve will be hard-pressed to lower inflation without a significant blow to U.S. economic activity and a sharp rise in unemployment, and even then may miss its 2% inflation target for years to come, a group of top economists concluded after a review of central banks' past inflation battles.
The study looked at 16 episodes since 1950, including six in the United States and others in Germany, Canada, and the United Kingdom, in which central banks used rising interest rates to engineer "disinflation," which the research defined as a decline in the inflation rate of around 2 percentage points or more.
"We find no instance in which a significant central bank-induced disinflation occurred without a recession," said the researchers, who included Brandeis International Business School professor Stephen Cecchetti, who is a former top economist at the Bank for International Settlements; Michael Feroli, chief economist at J.P. Morgan; and Columbia Business School professor Frederic Mishkin, who is a former Fed governor and longtime research collaborator with former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke.
The research was presented on Friday at a conference organized by the University of Chicago Booth School of Business, with Fed policymakers slated to discuss the findings.
The study is not the first to argue that the Fed's outlook for the economy, dubbed an "immaculate disinflation" by some observers, is unrealistic and will at some point force policymakers into hard choices about how much higher interest rates may need to rise in order to lower inflation and how steep a price they are willing to pay in terms of job losses. Some estimates have suggested the unemployment rate, currently at more than a five-decade low of 3.4%, may have to approach 7% for inflation to fall on a reasonable timetable.
But a series of rapid rate hikes last year, which pushed the Fed's benchmark overnight interest rate from near zero to the current 4.50%-4.75% range, has so far been relatively cost-free. Some parts of the economy, including the housing sector, have been hit hard by tighter credit conditions, yet the unemployment rate has not budged and overall growth has remained resilient - facts Fed officials say argues for a possible "soft landing" in which the economy weakens without falling into recession.
However, that very resilience, and a recent slowdown in the progress seen in month-to-month inflation data, has raised questions about whether the Fed will need to force interest rates higher than anticipated, at a greater cost to the economy.
'MILD RECESSION'
https://www.kitco.com/news/2023-02-24/Fed-needs-a-recession-to-win-inflation-fight-study-shows.html
Friday, 2/24/2023 15:25
GOLD and SILVER sank against a rising Dollar on Friday as Western stock markets also fell on the 1st anniversary of Russia invading Ukraine after new US data said inflation in the world's largest economy is running hotter than analysts and traders expected, even when fuel and food prices are ignored.
Hitting new 2-month and 3-month lows respectively at $1809 and $21.85 per ounce, gold and silver have lost some $150 and 15% from New Year 2023's 9-month highs.
Fixed-income bond prices also sank after today's stronger-than-expected PCE inflation data, driving 2-year US Treasury yields up above 4.8% per annum, the highest since July 2007 – eve of the global financial crisis – while 10-year yields hit 3.95%, up 0.6 percentage points from mid-January's 4-month low.
That still left the US yield curve deeply inverted – widely seen as a signal of recession ahead – after yesterday's 2nd estimate for year-end economic growth was cut by an upwards revision to the GDP purchasing price index.
With today's core PCE reading for January coming in at 4.7% per year, one-in-3 bets on next month's Fed interest-rate decision now see the US central bank hiking by 0.5 points to a ceiling of 5.25%, up from fewer than 1-in-30 bets this time last month according to the CME derivatives exchange's FedWatch tool.
Looking ahead to December's decision, just 1.6% of betting now sees the Fed ending 2023 at today's rate beneath 5.0% or lower, down from more than 4-in-5 bets at this point last month.
https://www.bullionvault.com/gold-news/gold-silver-022420232
Barrick Gold announced that it is reducing its dividend by 33% to 10 cents per share
Newmont declared a 40 cent dividend which represents a 27% cut
Both have substantially lower AISC & substantially larger cash reserves than Centamin
Are the world's two largest gold miners acting too cautious?
Should Centamin follow the trend and preserve cash - what will support its share price ? What is its lower range?
This would not be good news if this is the case for gold. Gold needs less tightening and i'm banking on inflation dropping without the need for more INCREASED tightening which will heighten recession likelihood and cause gold to drop back. Equally, cey would suffer more as an equity- tightening INCREASE not good there either -
Latest .Fed needs a recession to win inflation fight, study shows.
Backs against a wall, much higher job losses or try to beat inflation.
Not many choices , Gold should benefit.
The real problem is how do western economies expand the workforce as the shortage of labour is what fuels inflation. Perhaps more support for childcare, having hospital waiting lists shorter for those needing to get back to work, training people to fill vacancies, relaxed immigration rules, better trade agreements between countries, effective measures to protect against future climate change, supporting more artificial intelligence solutions and robotics, supporting better approaches for independent living that would otherwise consume more human care time. At present very little is happening especially in the UK. Inflation is entering a new era and its driver in a background of changing demographics is the shortage of labour. High interest rates by themselves won't cut it. Boom and bust is a nightmare to invest in. It only creates short term traders.
Wall St slides as inflation data fuels FED worries.
You can fool most people most of the time ,but not all the people ,all the time.
Russia’s Cyberattack exposes U.S 2 Quadrillion dollar dilemma
Andrew Maguire reveals the widely unreported details of Russia’s ransomware attack which has disrupted the CFTC platform, causing a month-long delay in their weekly COT Report submission.
The London wholesaler points out the magnitude of risk this cyber attack poses to the financial sector, explaining the effects of currency weaponisation in the deepening geopolitical conflict between the West and Russia.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PXCpck8Xh14
Yes, but in a volatile world and even more uncertain stock market, it’s only the low return, safe bets that allow you to sleep at night, if you withdraw significant funds, best to wait for a robust business to hit the buffers temporarily and swoop, in turn make money on its way back up.
This results date is the same date as last year but last year they also announced the dividend declaration.
“16th Mar 2022 7:00 am RNS Dividend Declaration”
Major European stocks were muted during Friday's premarket session as the world marked the first anniversary of the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, with key western leaders scheduled to hold press briefings throughout the day.
On the economy front, the last trading day of the week will be marked by consumer confidence data from the United Kingdom and Germany, as well as the final data on the state of the German economy.
The DAX, the FTSE 100, the CAC 40 as well as the Euro Stoxx 50 all stood slightly in the red territory at 8:04 am CET.
Both the euro and the pound traded unchanged against the dollar at 7:45 am CET to sell for 1.06013 and 1.20203, respectively.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / ND
Happy Friday y’al
Enjoy your weekend!
“Centamin will announce its audited financial results for the twelve months ended 31 December 2022 on Thursday, 16 March 2023.“
Whatever spare cash you have in a Bank earns no interest, that will continue .
So buy a valued commodity that for thousands of years has beaten any inflation.