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Well Tony, the downs have indeed ceased here- the first up for a while, 89.55. Have a good evening all.
And some more data came in.
To help- this is a good place to look for what's out and when:
https://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics/calendar
Rate hike next time even more likely and now some will most likely think of more… until the next info… NFP a week Friday and CPI later on- CPI desperately needs a drop for the FED to get anywhere near dovish
Not gold supportive- jobless claims down 239k from 265k, revised Q1 GDP up to 2% from 1.3%, personal consumption up to 4.2% from 3.8%
I agree Tony- each to own on trading strategies and we all have the same make money aim. Liberium predicted the last big drop but have been way out lots of times, as have all brokers. Gold is holding well in my view considering the headwinds- especially as FED pause is now rise next most likely and so on. The resilience of the US economy has deffo surprised me. I expected a quicker inflation drop, however, I am hoping for an accelerated drop when the onwards. Is this the low price, I would say most likely as CEY are simply getting whacked in line with most due to inflation (accept the confusion about how much waste is left and on-ongoing cost of waste clear - Mr T highlights this a lot and I am confused here as most are). Sukari mine Oz has been increasing well on the plus side.
Shanta and Centamin more or less have been tracking together since mid February 2023. Both companies were tipped as very high chances for being bought and taken over in mining news journals and analyst sites.
Hi Tibbs & and all the experts on this board.
What on earth is going on with this Company. I’ve been a share holder for more years than I can remember and have bought in from as low as 34p - 1.40 and here we are in the doldrums again. I’m heading nearer my 80’s now and thought this share was going to be a really good Gold Mine !!!! A really fed up shareholder
Sadly Liberum were right a couple of years ago ? When we were over a quid and they targeted low 80's?
As you know Mr T , I've always said that i would like to see moire director buys and on a regular basis. With the money they are on, I'm sure that there could be a buy of say 50,000 to 100.000 by at least one of them a month. A few buys over that would give a bit of confidence.
I'm hoping that we do start to get a good bounce up from here and then a steady sustained increase without any drama.
I would have more faith in Martin Horgan's statement that Centamin looks very cheap in the 80's if he bought a million or two himself, words are cheap when your shares are free though!
What purchases senior directors have made so far are "Chickens feed!"
So far Liberum have been far more accurate about the Centamin price than any of their corporate brokers and analysts who are after all "Bumming the company load!"
Sotolo,
Centamin production is 22% higher in H2. Pound sterling may also retreat as the currency is heading into a recession. The company earns in USD. Centamin also declared an increase in 1.8M reserve ounces of gold in the ground equivalent to 3 years production. It does not make sense to be as low as this. 87p is sub 1700 gold price.
Tornado, I think the the market looks forward and it is concerned/ factoring in that if gold keeps falling and costs keep rising that H2 profits may be considerably lower that H1 which ends tomorrow and should be pretty good when revealed in a month.
It has retreated again this morning. We are witnessing kitchen sink bear market. I still have cash in the portfolio to support positions. Awaiting to see how crazy this may get. At some point Centamin will turn and it will have a very powerful rally behind it. The company will report significant H2 earnings with average gold sold over six months above $1930 an ounce. My timing as usual was on the early side. Horgan was right when he said Centamin on the 80's handle is very cheap.
Major European markets were mixed in premarket of Thursday amid the latest data and discussions on inflation.
Investors remain attentive to the data and possible actions to be taken by the European Central Bank (ECB) after President Christine Lagarde indicated that there is still work to be done. In this regard, the German and Spanish CPI reports, and the Eurozone business and consumer survey are expected today.
The DAX lost 0.07% at 8:07 am CET, while the CAC 40 added 0.07%, and the FTSE 100 was flat. The pan-European Euro Stoxx 50 inched down 0.05% a minute later.
The euro was down by 0.16% against the dollar at 8:09 am CET, selling for $1.08957. In comparison, the pound was flat to go for $1.26285 at the same time.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JG
Posted June 27
Allied Gold Corporation joins us at the Egypt Mining Forum as a bronze sponsor. Allied Gold Corp is a private equity and industry-backed specialist in transforming gold mining assets in Africa. With a focus on turnaround projects*, they have successfully operated three producing mines and have had two development projects in Africa for over a decade. Their operations span Cote-d'Ivoire, Mali, Ethiopia (under construction), and Egypt (early exploration)
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/egypt-mining-show_egyptminingforum-mineralwealth-miningindustry-activity-7079440537166000128-VzF7
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Background Information:
Note the line from above * "with a focus on turnaround projects"
Allied 'was' a private company but is going public soon and will have a multi billion dollar market cap. Additionally they've already raised $300 million cash in a bought deal to use in acquisitions/ development.
https://ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/allied-gold-corp-limited-allied-145100716.html#:~:text=As%20previously%20announced%2C%20Allied%2C%20AMC,combination%20and%20Going%20Public%20Event.
Coincidently, Allied's Chief Geology & Strategic Officer Greg Winch was at one time the exploration manager at Sukari - and was gifted a generous package of shares for his troubles. Funny how these things come full circle...
Series 30: 400,000 shares were issued to Greg Winch under the ELFSP on 21 June 2011. The share based payment arrangement was exercisable on 30 Sept 2014
https://www.annualreports.com/HostedData/AnnualReportArchive/C/LSE_CEY_2011.pdf
https://www.linkedin.com/in/greg-winch-885b013b/
Thanks TerryMC1
and who knows what the final cost for Doropo would end up being - given inflation , perhaps another 10 - 15% by decision to proceed(abandon) next year
Steve
We all invest in ways that we are comfortable with. I am quite happy building my positions and if I have to wait awhile to an exit time so be it. Just under 6% of my portfolio is in rainbow rare earths and I am quite happy to let it sit there for the next 3 to 4 years and do nothing with it. Centamin I titrate in and out of the stock and it has worked well for me over many years. I do recall on one occasion probably December 2015 when the RSI touched 18. It was of course a major bottom. The RSI on the daily is around 23 and that is not that common and very low for Centamin. Tony
Tony, this sort of info doesn’t influence my trades.
80,000 of those I bought the other day sold when S/L hit alas today :-(. The rest could go early doors tomorrow.
I have strict loss rules as well as T/P rules, although, as most do, I’m a bit less strict on the T/P ones. I do it in blocks, without a huge change in SP sell %wise so as to get best price as cost per trade for me is low. Was close to my T/P yesterday morning, but heyho, can’t win them all. So long as you keep winning more than losing, profits increase. I got burned here a few years ago by simply just holding. When I go back in again isn’t on absolute price it’s when my markers and data points get hit- I go in either higher or lower than previous sell price- not fussed on what the SP is, my only interest is the next trade making a profit.
What a horrid couple of years, even the dividends are poor. My new hope is the yield curve inverting snd a possible drop in interest rates if we look like a recession, apart from that i don’t trade this anymore, I just wander and hold aimlessly waiting for a direction and some good developments from the BOD.
9 days in a row of continuous selling on Centamin. There has never been 10 days of retreat since 1 January 2019. The last at 9 days was the 106p to 80p drop December 2021. Still bought another tranche at 89.22 today.
Alas as I’ve said before Tony, it doesn’t work like this- this is why PMs are such a high risk.
It was only worse then currently when movement was discovered in the Sukari wall 2 October 2020. Gold was at it its lowest in the past 4 years around April 2019, 1270 ish per ounce.
The last two occasions the Centamin technicals on RSI and slow stochastics managed to get lowere then now was around 10th October 2020 and 18th April 2019.
So what happens? the company not turning into fres is it?
Posted 1hr ago
It's been a pleasure to meet you in person James Siddorn. We had lots of insightful discussions 💡 that really helped me see things from a different and more wide perspective 🧭. I'm looking forward to next time we meet 🤝🏼. My best wishes for you Mr. James🍀
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/mohammed-el-shinawy-3bb73810a_its-been-a-pleasure-to-meet-you-in-person-activity-7079814094735704064-xOEk
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James is just the latest specialist brought on site to 'teach' the locals how to interpret the Sukari deposit (it was Bret last month). James creds:
I am a specialist in the structural analysis of ore deposits, focused on deciphering the deposit-scale controls on ore plunge, geotechnical domains, seismicity, and hydrogeological pathways. I am also an expert in the applied geological interpretation of aeromagnetic data, and have extensive underground and surface mapping experience, and a broad mining experience in conventional and mechanised underground mining.
I have spent 20 years in the structural analysis and 3D geological modeling of gold...
https://www.linkedin.com/in/james-siddorn-11174614/
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I do hope these international pros help decipher Sukari's potential , cuz...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zTcu7MCtuTs