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Ditto for you
you might think people like to read your off topic machinations about nothing - but in realty it's not applicable to Centamin in any way shape or form
Why are your posts always so boring and off topic??
please stick to discussing Centamin , not forecasting nonsense and constant bla bla bla
The prime driver is the strength of the US$, pushing gold down,and stocks.
But things can chage dramatically ,and when they do dont blink.
Plus UK stocks (ftse 100) down 4% last 5 days too- and we are a stock which many seem to forget!
Yep it's another driver and there are many- but it's the gold sentiment I'm talking about not CEY- as I posted the other day, nearly all PM's suffering similar fate at the moment.
Steve,
Sentiment does drive stocks to extremes regarding valuation. My analysis gives a median assessment only. At some point Centamin will return higher when more of the unknown becomes known and the sentiment changes from bottoming territory. Tony
Larry Fink sold 25mln $ of his stock.
Dosnt mean their assets will be sold off quickly.
Blackrock are in trouble after losing a lot in the Baking sector, but are a bloodthirsty company.
Dosnt mean they are selling everything.
Blackrock selling up and no doubt will dispose of their holding. Ouch.
Mr T- we know stocks never work like this- for example when gold sentiment is high this jumps - you can’t simply pick a point in time and say it was that so now it should be this- it never works this way especially with pm’s which are massive high risk stocks
Yep Mr Bond- PM’s remain out of favour
Corporal Frazer comes to mind ,"Were Doomed ".
;-)
Barrick gold down 1.56%
HOC is down 1.98%
Hi Nunquam, exactly, why is the market valuing this at 85p when according to Tornado's analysis it should be over a £1.00?
Nobody believes the company any more!
Remands me of when RBS seemed very cheap!
Best
Tibbs
Hi Paul,
Yes, we can live in hope can't we!
Keep Well!
Tibbs
Probably not a good sign, but I have bought a few more Centamin shares. They do seem cheap. Are there problems in Egypt that are depressing the shares ? I think I am tempted to increase my holdings at these levels. But then again I though Marconi shares were cheap before the went bust !
Equities in Europe traded lower n the premarket on Thursday in anticipation of the newest update on the trade balance in the Eurozone. Meanwhile, the United States Federal Reserve warned about the possibility of raising interest rates further if fighting inflation requires so.
The DAX decreased by 0.29% at 8:00 am CET. The FTSE 100 slipped by 0.43%. The CAC 40 fell by 0.48%. The Eurostoxx 50 went down by 0.78%.
The euro lost 0.06% to the US dollar at 8:01 am CET to sell for $1.08722. At the same time, the pound sterling declined by 0.07% against the greenback to go for $1.27233.
Baha Breaking News (BBN) / JR
An excellent assessment Tornado
My last comment was totally misinterpreted by Cowichan. I gave details of 184M from new investors that will probably appear in the 2023 annual report next year and what we got was his list of those who sold from his previous post. The reasons why institutions sell could be a variety of reasons like another part of their portfolio has got absolutely hammered and they had to sell other assets. It may have nothing to do with Centamin.
What we know is that 2023 interim report was 426M revenue. This was expected and similar to 2020 when they earned $828M Revenue for the entire year. The company July revenue will have taken Centamin up to $500M and I would estimated up to today it will have reached around $535M. If the company only received an average revenue price of $1700 per ounce for the remainder of 2023 and hit 465,000 ounce production target the Revenue would exceed $890M and beat those of 2020. 100,000 ounces is protected by a put at $1875 over the coming 5 months.
The company profits were $91M in H1.(21.46% of Revenue). Production is expected to be 22% higher in H2. It is likely that after 32 weeks of this year total profits are probably $116M. The put profits of 100,000 ounces (11 weeks production), should give $38M profits. So 95,000 ounces which is 10 /11 weeks production has an unknown revenue and profit. What is most likely achieved is $154M on what we know equals the entirety of 2021 profit results. Lets take a really low gold price at $1700 for 95,000 for the remaining 10 weeks of the year. It gives 161M revenue and around $21M profit. Company profits at that gold price would exceed those of 2022 by $3M. The company share price should therefore mirror the average of last year at 106p providing all mined out reserves were replaced. If nothing was replaced on the reserves the average share price would fall to around 100p. The company updates replaced reserves in December.
If anyone wants to have a look at the outstanding amount the CBE owes Centamin as of year end 2022 it's on page 199 here :
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
albeit in very small print
However we are 8 months into 2023 - and as the total amount outstanding to Centamin may be approaching $100 million US dollars for 2021, 2022 & 2023 combined I've posted a note on LinkedIn asking Centamin to respond
As Siko says, he has no idea about this amount outstanding , and the CBE could ostensibly print money to pay for it, although I suppose any and all Central Banks could print money to buy gold - maybe they do?
But, if it was that easy - the CBE would have printed money to pay their bills instead of their government borrowing billions from other Arab states, the World Bank and the IMF - then Egypt wouldn't be paying 60% of their revenue as interest on their debt - but their money would also be worthless, so there's that...
https://www.linkedin.com/posts/don-lawson-98619370_egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-activity-7097677235167363072-dSXM
PS - an alghad news journalist may be doing a story about this and other Centamin issues in the coming weeks , he can be contacted here:
https://www.linkedin.com/in/mena-habeeb-egypt/
The agreement started in 2017.
The CBE gives Centamin 50 million Egyptian pounds a month, and in returns, Centamin gives the CBE gold worth the equivalent amount in US dollars according to the international price of gold and according to the USD/Egyptian pound exchange rate.
This agreement gives the CBE the opportunity to increase the national gold reserve, while paying in local currency, so it does not affect the foreign currency reserve.
Also Centamin is not losing anything as it needs local currency anyway to pay the workers and all the local expenses.
In 2021, this amount increased to 80 million Egyptian pounds per month.
With the current exchange rate, this comes to around 2.5 million dollars a month..
And yes, it will cost the CBE double the amount of local currency now to purchase gold, or they will get half the amount of gold for the same money due to the Egyptian pound devaluation..
I have no idea about any outstanding balance owing.. we are talking about the CBE.. They could always print Egyptian money to purchase gold!!
Whats your problem they pay and get at market price.
As for if its fair, ask the Egyptian Government to explain to you.
As for non payment ask the Government when.
As for your thinking, its confused and muddled.
Do you know if the CBE pays Centamin solely in Egyptian pounds for their monthly gold purchases?
I was under the impression they did - which facilitates Centamin in acquiring local currency to pay worker salaries and local procurement. If so, does the CBE now pay nearly double per ounce of gold as they did last year? Or does the CBE get a discounted price from Centamin?
If the CBE pays double because of the currency devaluation - in your opinion - is that a good use of government resources in such a time of hardship for the Egyptian people? And if the CBE gets a discount on the gold it 'purchases' - is that fair to Centamin shareholders?
--------------------------->>>
a recent news article from Egypt
August 14, 2023
Egypt’s gold reserves rise by 24 percent in first half of 2023
Egypt ranked fifth in the Arab world and 31st globally among gold-possessing countries after its gold reserves rose by 24 percent to reach 125.8 tons until the end of the first half of 2023, economist Ashraf Ghorab announced.
Statistics indicate that the central bank seeks to increase the strategic reserves of gold to break the barrier of 200 tons
https://www.egyptindependent.com/egypts-gold-reserves-rise-by-24-percent-in-first-half-of-2023/
-------------------------------->>>
if the article is correct the CBE will be making many more 'purchases' from Centamin in the coming months and years - I put 'purchases' in quotation marks because Centamin has yet to be paid for much of the CBE's past 'purchases'
according to the annual report https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
Centamin is compelled to 'sell' up to $960,000,000 egyptian pounds worth of gold to the CBE per annum ( $80,000,000 per month ) - and that the CBE has an outstanding balance owing to Centamin for 2021 and 2022 and 2023
I can't get confirmation of the amounts the CBE has left unpaid for its 2023 gold purchases because Centamin is refusing to answer questions regarding this arrangement , but page 198 of the annual report lists some historic amounts accrued thus far as : at December 31, 2022 the amount receivable from CBE is approximately $ 23,681,000 US dollars ( and 2021 net payable $ 24,761,000 US dollars )
https://www.centamin.com/media/2940/centamin-ar22.pdf
Siko, if you can provide some clarity on this issue it would be appreciated -
my thinking is that the CBE sees the gold coming from Sukari as belonging to the Egyptian people anyways - which may be what many Egyptians also agree with - so why pay for it ?
What planet are you on , the waste clearance is not finished yet, and as for rattle snake in a lucky dip ,sounds like you tried it.
Go straight to the hospital for anti toxin injection.
cowichan,
the share is "******ed" because the aisc are way to high , the 'bonanza " grades seem to be missing and the market trusts centanin like a rattle snake at a lucky dip!