Centamin PLC Share Chat (CEY)

Total market overreaction, “buy”

This could be a very good buying opportunity at this price.

I am nervous about the fact that all of CEYs mines are in politically unstable jurisdictions, but I remain highly confident that the price of gold will be higher in the coming months and years.

This is high risk but it's a massive producer and there is the potential to seriously multibag your investment from the current price imo. GLA

I took the opportunity late this afternoon to climb over the towels and through the blood and buy with the 10% cash I have held back for an outside/exceptional opportunity to buy more on the cheap. I judged that this was such an opportunity.

Time will tell whether it is foolish or wise but I am reassured that it is "cheap" as we closed today 10p down year to date and 12p down on share price close on day of Endeavour approach 3/12/20.

As the Frank Holmes and Bob Moriarty podcast said on 5/11/20 noted the best management teams have 6 key attributes,
and the first 5 are: a vision; transparency; a strong track record; a profit mindset; expertise. I would argue that Martin Horgan fits the bill on what we know so far and has investor goodwill.
But as yet he has not yet met the 6th attribute of the best precious metal mine Directors: buy shares in the company you run. Martin Horgan has not yet invested his own money to buy Centamin shares.

Now is a good opportunity Martin.

MKS next dividend shouldn’t be tillnext April, Centamin policy is to lay a min 30% of free cash flow after profit share royalty and capex, around Apr and Sept, so currently I guess a minimum of around £30m next year which would be around 2% yield, let’s hope it is considerably more as gold soars or mining recovers, but why shares aren’t soaring till we get Dec 2nd news of gold picks up. I have topped up, rebuking some of my earlier top slicing, in hope of one or other or both but bit of a gamble just now, however I am sentimental about the share not relying on the divi just now. Good luck

After the events of the past three years most probably nothing much will happen to the share until after the address from the new CEO on the 02nd Dec when he may be able to give more information of his proposed strategy going forward.
Of course we may only get a basic outline as some of his idea's on increasing share holder value which might include ways of realising the value of some of the West African assets sooner rather than later.

This isn't racing away the way I hoped with the POG is rising. £1.45 by EoW would be nice but ambitious in my view. Still a good price to get in at if you can wait. The div is still there for LTHs like myself.

Should get here this week with gold and the markets all driving high

Shares on the major European stock market indexes jumped in the premarket ahead of the week's first trading session after the major networks announced that Joe Biden has won the presidential elections in the United States. The Democrat is on his way to become the 46th president of the US, while reports emerged claiming that sitting President Donald Trump plans to contest the results through legal action.

The investors will also keep an eye on the data to be revealed later in the day, as Germany is scheduled to publish its report on the country's trade balance before Monday session's opening bell, while the Eurozone Sentix investor confidence index figure will come out after the session's start.

The Dax jumped 1.66% or 206 points at 7:22 am CET, while the FTSE 100 followed suit, gaining 1.25% at the same time. A minute later, the euro advanced slightly against the dollar, rising 0.07% to sell for 1.18871, while the pound strengthened 0.18% versus the greenback, changing hands at 1.31758.

Breaking the News / BU

Yehaa the FTSE is up 1.25% and gold is trading circa $1960.00

Which is exactly what Clinton and her mob did after 2016

Hi Tiger,
I agree, Boris lied over the effects of a hard Brexit and the Irish border, Farage lied about Brexit although doubt he had even considered the wider implications of a no deal Brexit on the Good Friday agreement.
Boris and slimy Gove had no intention of actually negotiating a sensible EU exit intended putting the blame on the EU for the failure and the resulting hard Irish boarder, Boris thought he could then divert the public's attention attention with a some cobbled together trade deal with his old mate Trump,.
But with Biden's election Bpris and Gove are up the creek without a paddle, or the chance of any US trade deal unless they radically change their present political strategy.
Biiden will no doubt be aware of the value of closer ties with the EU with regard to trade and security and that will take priority over any independent deal with the UK which in its self imposed isolation after Brexit has far less to offer in comparison.
As you rightly point out the outcome of this latest US election is certainly very relevant to to many factors that affect the share price of Centamin including USA foreign policy.
Some critics of Egypt's President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi expressed hope that US policy would change, reposting a tweet by Biden from July in which he criticized Cairo's crackdown on political activists, and pledged: “No more blank checks for Trump’s ‘favourite dictator.’”
https://www.dhakatribune.com/world/north-america/2020/11/08/arabs-doubt-biden-will-herald-change-in-the-middle-east
https://egyptianstreets.com/2020/11/08/egypts-sisi-congratulates-us-president-elect-biden-on-victory/
https://theconversation.com/bidens-plan-to-revive-iran-talks-could-calm-the-middle-east-but-on-israel-he-and-trump-largely-agree-143716

Asia markets up, other futures up, gold holding at ~mid 1950’s, crypto remains on the up- could be a good day later for stocks and CEY on normal indicator movement- good to see positive reaction on first day since Biden confirmation so far... next jump, of course, could be 2nd Dec of good news on expansion, key will be next scheduled prod RNS post this.

Interesting what would happen if all the power elites in Africa were put out of the gold smuggling trade. The gold leaks out illegally from numerous if not all countries, aided by the usual suspects
In November 2014, three people, a Belgian, a Canadian, and a Frenchmen, were caught with 77 kilos of gold. Members of a gold smuggling ring, they were trying to smuggle it out through the airport in their luggage !? ....Upon questioning, the gold seller found to be involved admitted that an average of two illegal export operations had been carried out each month for some time, with the traffickers carrying amounts of gold varying between 6 and 30 kg. (the old president had been dislodged and security at the airport had changed)
https://www.brusselstimes.com/news/belgium-all-news/30512/three-fraudsters-one-of-them-belgian-caught-with-77-kilos-of-gold-at-ouagadougou-airport/
According to Public Eye, a non-governmental organization (NGO), Switzerland imported at least 7 tonnes of gold from Togo in 2014 despite the fact that there are no gold mines in the country (???); this gold was traced back to artisanal mines in Burkina Faso. Many tonnes of gold produced by these mines (located mainly in the north and west of the country) are imported unlawfully into Togo each year, and this trafficking circuit alone deprives Burkina Faso of an estimated 3.5 billion CFA francs in tax revenues.

Artisanal production now reportedly amounts to almost half the volume of industrially produced gold: 20 to 50 tonnes per year in Mali, 10 to 30 tonnes in Burkina Faso, and 10 to 15 tonnes in Niger. This represents a total monetary value of between $1.9 and $4.5 billion per year. The bulk is exported to Dubai, which reports $1.9 billion in annual gold imports from these countries (plus Togo).
https://www.crisisgroup.org/africa/sahel/burkina-faso/282-reprendre-en-main-la-ruee-vers-lor-au-sahel-central

and then there is India...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_Kerala_gold_smuggling_case#Background
Guyana, Brazil, Peru and on the list goes....

Sotolo.
Investopedia , Bear raid .
Dated 21/08/02019.
Fits you and your clones / Shorter pals perfectly.
You be very careful, if you take the trouble to read the article.
You after the last few months of commentary deserve no mercy.

Tiger, a thrilling rollercoaster political weekend but especially for us as I think that, on a similar note, Biden should be good for gold as even without the Senate he will try for some kind of greater stimulus (the key word for us at the moment) leading to a falling dollar and rising gold. It will be nteresting to see if that gold rise starts tomorrow or it is a matter of buy on the rumour and sell on the fact. Are you back in? At the end of last week I bought back half the 20% of my Cey that I moved over to Hoc; Hoc has roared ahead as they were unfairly undervalued, 25% just last week, but are now getting to a fairer price, and Cey seem priced fairly with their fall, and lack of much gain with rising gold, the gap has risen from Cey share price being higher than Hoc, to Hoc now 140 ahead, that was lucky, now if gold rises Cey should come good as long as Dec 2nd isn't a third piece of bad news. Many of us longterm holders have been here before, and Tibbs reports very well on our new CEO

HI Mr Tibbles!
My take on it is that Biden's election means that a "hard Brexit" is now impossible. If Johnson were to go down that route, Biden would tell him that there would be no trade deal with the US, either. We'd be completely friendless and alone.
Johnson has no choice now but to concede to the EU's terms and to sign up to whatever deal they are offering. I'd expect that to happen in the next couple of weeks.
Before anybody complains, this post is relevant to CEY as any kind of functional deal with the EU will cause sterling to jump, with a knock-on effect to the the POG in £.

Biden considers Northern Ireland’s peace deal a success of US foreign policy and globalism, which he has long espoused. He sees the EU as a partner for the US. Powerful congressional Democrats such as Nancy Pelosi have bashed Britain’s Brexit policy for similar reasons.
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/nov/08/joe-biden-irish-relatives-celebrate-ballina-county-mayo

Mr Biden is considered a pragmatist and under him the United States may well prove a more stable and predictable ally to the UK than was the case in the last four years.
Most likely is Mr Biden's priorities will be overwhelmingly domestic - namely fixing America's economy and the Covid crisis. so relations with the UK - including a possible free trade deal - will not be a top priority.
With his roots in Ireland, Mr Biden seems likely support US lawmakers who've insisted the Irish protocol contained in last year's Brexit divorce deal must be fully respected.
This is because of its importance in maintaining an open border on the island of Ireland and, by extension, in safeguarding the Northern Ireland peace process.
In September, just after the UK government introduced the Internal Market Bill which had provisions to override parts of the Irish protocol, the influential Speaker in the US House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, said the UK could forget a trade deal with the US, if it did anything to undermine the peace process.
For all President Biden's internationalist instincts, there will most probably be no return to America's global interventionism of the past.
Possibly meaning that despite Mr Biden's arrival in the White House, the UK post-Brexit may still have to forge a new role in the world, one that does not automatically slipstream behind US foreign policy.

Republic vs. Democracy: What Is the Difference?
https://www.thoughtco.com/republic-vs-democracy-4169936

Trump and Biden are wings of the same bird. The drama being played out is to encourage support for the digital currency when it's rolled out as it ties in new voting system too.
Do you really believe Biden gives a toss about Ireland?

Why, because it is true, they created a republic rather than a democracy . . Nothing to do with trump

One tree one vote!

That sounds about as mad as Trump logic.

But wasn’t that the reason they created the system so that large populated areas didn’t dictate over the rest of the country ?

In the last five US elections, two presidents have been summoned to office whilst obtaining fewer votes than their opponent.
For example, in 2000 George W. Bush won with four hundred thousand fewer votes than opponent Al Gore. More recently in 2016, Donald Trump became the 45th president with three million fewer votes compared to his opponent Hilary Clinton.

This has occurred due to the Electoral College – a system that mirrors some of the worst effects of First Past the Post used to pick Westminster’s MPs.
https://www.electoral-reform.org.uk/how-the-us-warped-electoral-college-makes-millions-of-votes-make-no-difference/?utm_medium=email&utm_source=ers-email&utm_campaign=blog-roundup&utm_content=ERS+News++6+Oct+2020+D

The question of what will happen if Trump loses the election. "We know that narcissists who fail will lash out. Children will do so literally. Narcissists blame others for their failures. In their eyes, they have often been snubbed. Or the other has cheated. It's not uncommon for them to say the most heinous things about their opponents after they've lost or received criticism.
https://www.uu.nl/en/node/541/donald-trump-textbook-narcissist
Biden, who has Irish ancestry, has made it clear that there will be no agreement on a post-Brexit UK-US trade deal if a no-deal outcome threatens the Good Friday agreement that he holds dear.
https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/nov/08/boris-johnson-under-pressure-to-avoid-no-deal-brexit-after-biden-victory
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2020-trump-faces-lawsuits-and-legal-threats/