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Out 1st week of April Mike. Just had enough and cant keep waiting for 2023 , 2024 or 2025 . If everything is as good as everyone has been saying today people would be smashing into this like no tomorrow but the reality is the share price is 3.85p . The same as it was when oil was $30 and all the monster wells were not aparently ready to gush. !0p for me would be a dream and 20p massive life changing but its casp at the end of the day and something always crops up and then its well next year will be the one .
A8 Deep Well news on Monday and a couple of King Edwards?
33 Days and counting on Monday - will there be time for another top up sub 4p?
Hope so ... start the slide in the sp Gritty ..
Gritster are you selling out in a few weeks regardless?
All the pieces are in place for monster rns. It’s been a lonnnnnng road but Covid has allowed me to accumulate far more than would have been possible otherwise. The weather is no worse than here so that shouldn’t have caused any delays. A8 flow rates should have had time to stabilize. A deep flowing whilst oil is on a run could be the perfect storm. Roll on next week.
We can expect 10K+ bopd from those shallow wells and I'd guess they'll be all drilled be the end of 2023.
Plus another 2 bites of the deep cherry this 1H with A8 Deep Well to boot - production will rocket this year.
If you want to see what they are planning this year have a look at;
http://elicense.kz/Licenses/Details/137540ac-2b86-42ef-835c-5afd9436debe
"According to the Group technical project for the construction of operational wells at the Elemes North-West field with a design depth of 2500 meters are construction of wells No. 150, 151, 152, 153, 154, 155, 156, 157, 158, 159, 160, 161, 200, 201,
202, 203, 204, 205.
The enterprise has an Emissions Permit for the construction of these wells and, as completion of well construction are transferred to the balance of the enterprise and replenish the fund wells."
152 currently being worked on from that list.
They have the money, rigs, the right crew and the techinque.
Also, Al Marri's purchase won't go unnoticed for too long. Shame he doesn't tweet like Elon Musk.
Private emirate money will come flooding once they realise what has happened.
It's happening folks. The wait is over.
Its great to hear everyone bigging this up and i for one would love it to happen . I have somehow ended up with thousands invested here and i mean thousands not just 2 or 3. Its gonna be 10p here or even 14p there and hold on 20p by summer. But the fact is it just does not ever ever happen . Im sick of reading how much the share price is going to be but actually never is !
CC,
Yep a no brainer.
Sentiment / offer will throw the numbers way out.
I think they'll have another crack at the already drilled deeps in Q2-3 especially the A5 Deep Well as by then they'll have so much dosh to work with even after the shallows.
I know I keep saying it, but in 2023 this will be a different Company - get the next CPR out of the way 2H and who knows....
Somm
If 30k bopd Deeps compared to just MJF at 7200 BOPD = a factor of 4.16
3.4p x 4.6 = 14.16p at a zero P.E.
P.E of 10 looks low and attainable = £1.41.60 ... guess that would do us as well, start with 20P plus by the end of this half year H1 if they get their finger out on the shallow drills ?
Somm it's a no brainer as long as they pick the low hanging fruit first.
That they haven't done this before now has always confused me, nearly going bust has scared them into the reality and made them forget the ego and ignore the sense of grandeur they aspired to.
Scrap the boat, give 3AB away, hand back Airshagyl, keep MJF and South Yelemes shallow fields and you still have a decent little oil company worth many multiples of 3.4p + South Yelemes value.
Take what's is in front of you and build on the rest afterwards i.e scale back Airshagyl or sell the boat to fund it and drill 3AB, hit oil and Total beg you to sell to them.
Different P.E valuations.
Asian Oil and Gas industry average (11x). PE
https://www.infrontanalytics.com/fe-EN/40180OK/Ansagan-Petroleum-JSC/market-valuation 8.21%
https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/012015/what-average-pricetoearnings-ratio-oil-gas-drilling-sector.asp 25.15
The market has constrained production and increasing prices and this is set to continue and strengthen over the next 5 - 10 years until some measure of "green' power can take up the slack, so you would expect the price to earnings ratio values to increase and hold their levels over time.
Casp zero p.e of 3.4p ( on only MJF at 12 wells producing 600 BOPD each X which ever factor you think applies gives an idea of a buy out price.
Which ever factor you choose the answer always comes out to over 20 pence and remember this is only for one MJF shallow field.
Good post CC.
Yeah did some number crunching myself and got similar numbers for the shallows and around 30K bopd if all the deep wells were to flow.
From latest COPL RNS which is onshore USA.
"We are delighted that this discovery reflects the scale of previous discoveries made over my career and in particular, the North Sea. We estimate the Frontier element of the discovery to cover an area of approximately 51 square miles with the capacity of up to three horizontal wells per square mile each initially producing 1,000 - 3,000 barrels per day.
Note Horizontal Wells for a like for like comparison with CASP's new drilling method, vertical drill with a horizontal side track towards Total Depth.
So for MJF,
Source Casp Web Site: "The success of these wells demonstrates the MJF structure extends over an an area at least 10km2 in size."
10 Square Kilometres = 3.86 square miles X 3 per mile = 12 producing wells ( in direct comparison with the COPL RNS.) Plus later stage injector wells when ' if required to improve recoverability factor.
12 Wells X average flow rate of 500 bopd = 6000 BOPD.
12 Wells X average flow rate of 800 bopd = 9600 BOPD.
12 Wells X average flow rate of 1000 bopd = 12000 BOPD.
MJF cost of a well $1.5m.
Time taken from spud to production three months.
Looking at MJF's new wells an average of 600 BOPD per well looks achievable.
600 bopd x 12 wells = 7200 total BOPD x 340 working days per annum = total annual production of 2,448,000.00 M barrels of oil.
2,448,000.00 X $40.00 ( using $40 as the net sales price from an $80 sale) = $97,920,000.00
$97,920,000.00 in Sterling = £72,239,040.58 p.a Current shares in issue 2,110,772,114
As of January 2021, the average P/E ratio of the oil and gas drilling sector (oil and gas production and exploration) is 25.15
( Wonder what P.E. Kairat took for his shares and residency under the gross comparable 85p target price ? )
As a rule of thumb if you look at a project and it works at a p.e. of 5 or under then (imo) do it and don't worry too much.
You can buy at the moment for close to a zero P.E. and all you have to do is wait for them to drill and redrill the MJF sequence of wells at pretty much zero risk apart from political and blowouts.
Ignoring,
- South Yelemes existing wells 99% owned
- South Yelemes upper level new structure that has to be drilled through to reach the existing levels for workovers which are required, 99% owned
- Boaty McDrillFace
- 3AB - 85% owned
- All of the deeps A5,A6,A8,801 - 99% owned.
Let's hope it hits 2p again over winter.