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Exactly Flakey
All we need now is for the previous cases backed to start coming through and a pattern to give investors and idea what is to come ???
It's great that the Petersen etc cases are in the Fire but I believe they have become a distraction to the core less high profile cases mounting up and will start make returns less "lumpy"
If we can show a healthy regular return then It will be easier for people equate the growing level of cases funded for future revenue ???
Covid and the crumbling economy will definitely provide extra opportunities but whilst I expect an increase in funding I think it will be more about quality rather than quantity ,
So that's why we need to be Long here and hopefully the the stock that the yanks start buying when we are dual listed will go the investors with very sticky fingers ... and we then might start to see a steady climb rather than the volatility we are suffering right now !
Mind you if the US float and then some good half year results caused a couple of spikes I wouldn't say No !
GLA
Litigation Finance to Maintain Momentum During and Post-COVID-19
May 19, 2020 Commercial, Premium
Everything we know about the business world is changing, in no small part due to the Coronavirus. Retail outlets, restaurants, bars, theaters, and even insurance companies are feeling the crunch caused by stay-at-home orders, supply shortages, and staffing woes. Yet through it all, Litigation Finance is enjoying a surge of opportunity.
Well flakey5185 has very nicely laid out most of the reasons to invest in burford, I'm not saying someone won't bid for burford, I'm saying it's just most unlikely, we have a really bad recession coming, we are in a historical pandemic, Banks and institutional investors around the world will be conserving cash, wealthy American private investors will/ have pulled a lot of money out of shares, and the smaller American private investors are putting there money into shares, a huge amount of American private investors are putting there $1000 dollars from the state into shares,
To pay a few Billion pounds right now for burford wouldn't be the normal protocol during a cash tightening banking or institutional exercise. they will be counting the pennies right now. I'm again stating I'm not saying a takeover won't happen,
It's just most unlikely, unless burfords management get the backing for there own takeover , that's more possible than a outsider bid .
As far as guessing future SP predictions, sure it's only, but not completely, a bit of FUN.
I've seen some companies shares horrendously battered over years because of mistakes and all kinds of media and other attacks, most eventually come back to a normal share price level, though burford is something special, it really has the potential and opportunity to make any amount of money at any given time frame, when I say billions $ € £ in profit,
I really mean that, because this sector is still only getting started after a decade of consistent lawsuit wins.
When it gets fully established in America and around the world , then the consistent huge earnings should be coming in every year, with the potential of huge class actions and commercial billion dollar deals being done, that potential is what I absolutely love about this company, when the penny drops with American investors then our share price really could hit £26+ in just a few years time, our earnings in just a few years could/ should explode upwards, please ignore today's gyrations of our SP , as it will look truly and unbelievable cheap in just a few years time, I remember a poster telling me he bought £10000 ASOS PLC shares at 7p and sold they at around 10p , he was delighted at the time with the profit, until he seen them hit £70 several years later, and sitting at near £30 now, just that £10000 would have made him a millionaire .
I'm not saying burford will repeat that spectacular rise, but they could Multiply by X 10 in 3/4/5 years time.
Please DYOR, and never ever invest with anyone's HYPE or Enthusiasm, DYOR,DYOR,DYOR, I can't say that enough.
GLA
I really hope that does not happen pennylots, I can never understand people crying out for takeovers as I’ve twice felt conned by being taken out cheaply. You won’t see me shouting about the day to day sp or guessing long term sp but I’m confident that there are huge gains to be had here over the next few years !!!
One sp I will tell you will happen is it will be getting close too £100 before I croak and I’ll have a grand with any one on that !!!!
But be warned the contract will say you can’t redeem from my descendants......... lol
If BUR’s business is booming, very profitable and share price so undervalued (as you keep telling us) why would it not be a takeover prospect? When the dual listing comes to pass later this year, a takeover bid after that would be that much more complicated, and probably a lot more expensive.
So that suggests that anyone thinking of making a move (a US merchant bank?) has a small window of opportunity in which to make the play. July/ August anyone?
In the first four months of 2020, Burford said it "has obtained court results or arbitral awards that, if paid in full, would generate substantial income and cash receipts". This includes close to USD800 million of cash receipts and over USD450 million of balance sheet cash receipts, as well as over USD500 million of income.
"The expected cash receipts should provide a meaningful addition to Burford's already healthy cash liquidity to reinvest in new matters," said Burford.
UT trade of circa 2.152 mil
Let's not lose sight of the fact that BUR were trading 4x current SP before the MW short attack & the Woodford debacle.
Everything els BUR & the Bod have done since has been very positive.
Changing the way they show there accounting
Dual listing
Directors buying shares.
The attack has been well overdone imho
MW reduced straight after the attack & now hold NO short position!
Burfords specialty is tracing and identifying any person or countries assets to assess if they can be legally frozen, and that they are of a sufficient amounts to merit going after,
I'm 100% confident we will win that case ok, that doesn't mean that outcome will definitely happen. There's no guarantees in lawsuits until it's all signed off on and including the settlement money.
Argentina ordered the issues of all oil companies interest in the Falklands in 2015, if they can seize other people's assets then it can work both ways, burford can seize Argentina's assets anywhere in the world that has any type of fair legal system.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-latin-america-33301540
Yes the next several months / years will be turmoil for most companies, but not to much for one's that thrive in recessions, and that's burfords forte, I genuinely believe burford will make historic amounts of earnings for It's shareholders,
I can't see any bid approaches appearing, though they would be extremely welcomed by myself and every shareholder.
The USA listing should bring some strength to our share price, though a muddy waters attack will leave a long lasting stain on burfords reputation, though that should get proportionally blasted away with the very high earnings I'm expecting during the recession , the market really needs to see just how powerful a tool litigation funding can be in or out of any recession, burford is here for the long run, it should make hundreds of millions every single hard going forward, and always hold the opportunity to make any amount of money from just one single case, even billions in settlement mlney, the Volkswagen case is a perfect well known example of what burford can achieve, this win and eventual settlement money should bolster the confidence of every investor. Hopefully a indication of the Volkswagen settlement case may coincide with our USA listing, now that should bring burford a respectable PE/ P.B share price.
Look to the future, not to the silly gyrations of the last week or so, £26 is not unreasonable in just a few years time.
DYOR, GLA
I agree BUR needs careful watching, but big disruptions are going to happen long before three years are up. Within 6 months more likely.
First up is Petersen. We tend to forget that BUR has already booked an unrealised gain of $737m. To validate this we need to have a formal Court decision soon on the merits of the case (sorry, TB, your opinion is not enough). Although that decision still leaves the difficulty of actually getting cash out of the Argies, this major step forward will be legal underpinning for the share price.
Second is the dual listing. Again this is a very significant event that will make or break the share price. I said previously that if we assume that BUR is held 50%/50% UK/USA, we have to ask where the USA 50% is coming from. On the face of it (given that no new share capital is to be issued) the USA pool has to come from UK shareholders. That can only mean one thing for the UK price.
Finally, a takeover bid. Must be a real possibility. Buckle up boys and girls, get ready for a bumpy ride.
Lunanera that's a excellent comprehensive and balanced well thought out post. I wholeheartedly agree with everything except the time frame for burford to regain market confidence and accompanying reasonable share price. in my book the earnings will do the talking, and these could be very substantial in the next couple of years, there's actually every possibility that the earnings could go way beyond any market estimates, it's even possible that burford could win a billion dollars in a lawsuit win, and that's the beauty of this share, I would like burford to hold onto as much money as possible to give investors confidence and a backbone to the company,
Bigbaggerhungry a hour to buy them shares, that is strange, but this game can be stranger than fiction.
GLA , DYOR, always buy / sell with extreme caution and due diligence.
Although I can see the potential of this rather novel sector in finance, patience is what I'm afraid will be necessary.
Criticism, even when unjustified, requires a track record to rebute it. And criticism there was plenty.
Not that I would not welcome it, it is essential. But it will take time for a level of confidence to establish itself. To the enterprising investor, this can indeed provide a welcome opportunity to build a substantial position (alas, not without risk -- novel implies this).
A shift in how this business is seen will require some consistency in results. These don't come lighthanded, they will need time time to establish.
From my experience, innovators are always scrutinized and attacked. And that's a necessary gauntlet they need to muster. Look at Steve Jobs and you have plenty of precedence.
I would be (positively) surprised if perception would suddenly evaluate their proposition correctly. A time frame of 3 years is something I am expecting.
It depends on ones views as to the prospects and future of Burfords approach. Taking into account the relative immaturity of this industry, further disruptions are likely (risk).
I'm afraid this is a position that needs rather close monitoring and investment of time to understand it. In the short term I would not be so up beat about favourable assessments. In the long term I would expect a rather solid business emerging.
50% of my total investment in Burford is now profit, so that should create a decent buffer to any Lumpy earnings in the future, normally I would expect a lumpy earnings forecast , though because of this recession and the huge increase in litigation lawsuits I’m now only expecting a substantial increase in future earnings over the next several years, a sophisticated investor would look at the PE, + PB or all the other terminologies used for that more accurate reading of a company’s financial status. If you’re really looking at the long term merits of Burford, then this years gyrations of our share price mean very little.
the futures bright , the futures litigation funding.
GLA
BTW
In those four years I’ve bought low at 305 and high at 1760
Sorry ld low at 389 and high at 1901
I am expecting my my biggest gain with my longs
“ eventually “
Completely agree Bruce which is why you should never buy on on a whim but after serious research !!! GG I understand your point so fair enough but fwiw in my opinion Burford atm have a very low PE and you could make worse choices if it was the PE that got you interested.
I’ve been here over 4 years now with a set amount for the long term ( currently down) and some I trade ( currently up) but I very much doubt I’ll be selling my long term view any time soon even if the PE become uncomfortable high !!!!
Each to their own
Regard
Ffc
Or a absolute bargain if you take a longer term view,
GLA
A very low pe can indicate potential problems
WHY
please explain
Personally The fundamentals are everything and I don't see a problem with initially being enticed be a low PE ???
But then that is coming from your " ordinary average investor" ffs
Now once your in ,unless you're a day trader? so long as your comfortable with your initial due dilly and nothing has changed it,s a matter of time and give up on the daily ups and downs ...
GG I agree, though the average ordinary investor understands the PE much quicker, You will find this in investors chronicle and most tabloid papers , that’s the first thing I look for, then everything else after that, so I agree with what your stating, though in everyday life it’s the PE that catches your eye first.
GLA
ThomasBrowne, it's usually best to look at financial companies like Burford on a P/B basis rather than a P/E basis.
There are several litigation funders raising hundreds of millions to take a small slice of the tsunami of Litigation work coming out of this recession, they will all make serious money, that's a certainty going on previous recessions and workloads,
And yet we have Burford sitting on a 6+times PE, it's absolutely ridiculous , even at a 10 times PE it would be cheap, I would expect a 6 times PE if muddy waters attack was yesterday, when will the .net same up to the huge potential earnings that should come from burford, we have billions available and employed in litigation funding, absolutely no one to date can touch burford and the size of funding they provide, our current / Volkswagen and future wins will bring burford to the attention of everyone in investing, and that should eventually gain a premium PE to our competitors. Some of these case can bring in hundreds of millions of pounds / dollars in just one single case, that's the beauty of this company, you just never know what spectacular payout is coming our way.
If others are raising hundreds of millions to try to take a small slice from this market, it tells you something, and that is that a fortune can be made here, and burford has billions to monetise a very big slice of this workload. Though the very best profits are yet to come. I wouldn't at all be surprised if burford was making £$ 500 million a year in just a few years. Now what will the PE be by then ? Probably 14 times PE. Or much higher.
Never ever buy / sell on anyone's hype or enthusiasm, please DYOR, and only buy/ sell after due diligence and careful consideration. GLA.
One thing to be in during any form of recession is the legal business. I am in the legal costs side of things and have been since 1970s and seen it all. I am suddenly doing very well on the costs front and think this will do well too.
Nice find 1msn
Nothing new really but good to see a steady flow of litigation funding articles all the same
many thanks
Just an unfortunate surname for the Parabellum CEO: Howard Shams !!! :-)
But I certainly agree - this should be a hot sector for Covid litigation fallout for a number of years. All established players should benefit.
That was a excellent writeup, though I don't agree with their suggestion that their business model was best , it doesn't matter who's supplying the litigation funding as long as it's backed up by good experienced Lawyers and vast sums of money, it's basically a bet that your lawyers can identify a winning lawsuit case. Burford has plenty of them in abundance. We also have billions of funding to call on, that's why we are the number one stop for any case , big or small. I suspect we are about to get much bigger during this recession.
GLA