If you would like to ask our webinar guest speakers from WS Blue Whale Growth Fund, Taseko Mines, Kavango Resources and CQS Natural Resources fund a question please submit them here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Interesting debate of late.... Now if I was the Board I would pay the 5.25 cent divi and add a supplementary divi of 0.75 cent making the case for support of the core divi will the flex of a supplementary add as results allow, that should provide some umph to the price. I expect a minimum of 1B buyback with a hoped 0.75cent add on to the divi.
Reckon Trading had another stellar qtr (not like RDS).... see no negatives at all apart from the dividend policy... though reading the presentations the board does have discretion each qtr.
Price week from now should be above £3 if Looney plays this well...
The only cloud on the horizon is institutional holders may want to green up their portfolio's even though BP is getting greener.... thus some selling of late I think. Still remember that the Tobacco playbook was similar some years ago, now they really came good.
See from the latest trading update today from BP RMM 16%+ Brent just shy of $75 and Nat Gas on the up. Picked up two bundles today around 2.90 for the bottom draw . BP fundamentals do look good.
Sigma1 - Also waiting for $24 (287) to break and I will top up with an other 1/3 , ex div in 2 weeks + buyback should be safe for a swing around 310/320.
Based on the previous circa 8% SP rise seen from earnings date (26 Apr 21) at SP 291 to divi date (5 May 21) at SP 318,
I've doubled my holding this afternoon to lower my average SP and exit target price to within that range.
Some times you just have to roll the dice and hope!
# Not financial advice !!!
Goodluck next week everyone.
Hi Happy
Its always good to read your posts. Your words of positivity and faith in BP to come good eventually, helps a little for me to refocus from the reality of the current situation and underperformance of BP.
I read yesterday that you still believe that the SP could reach 4.50 by the year end. The last four months have been extremely poor from the 3.20s in March, the 3.30s in June to the 280s in near August.
If not the much awaited Q2 results, when only a few months ago many posters were predicting 3.50, 3.75 or even 4.00 by Q2, then what do you see will make the difference in the next four months ? The recovery is well underway. Our peers are outperforming us. What is going to be the pivot from market negativity towards BP.
Personally, I see a mild gain towards ex dividend day and maybe buybacks will give some minor, temporary support.
On buybacks, the last buybacks had the company buying up shares that were around 3.10 from memory. They are now 2.89. Not really financially astute but I am sure it benefited the boards bonus payments somehow. A stupid way to return excess cash to shareholders.
I would be interested to read your and other's views.
Great weekend all.
MarkGo
Excellent point KOTB. Exxon has no meaningful trading business, BP's is best-in-class. However, we don't know what proportion of the $6.1 operating cash flow in Q1 was trading (we know trading did very well but BP does not break out the numbers for commercial reasons). I don't think they'll repeat the outstanding Q1 trading performance but hope I am wrong! I don't think the market expects a repeat. Trading profits can be quite lumpy (Q4 2020 was rubbish, Q1 2021 was amazing!).
Best
Happy
weekly/monthly option day today - MMs may want to keep this below $24 today to make the calls worthless, enjoy the dip ! it will be up for ex div by 7.5%/10%!
I own Exxon and I'm a bit disappointed that there was no dividend increase or buyback. They will focus on debt reduction for now having not cut the dividend in 2020.
Excellent operational performance. I'm listening to the webcast now. Really talking up the record quarterly result from their chemicals business. They reckon by 2027, the chemicals earnings contribution will increase by 100% from today! Why, oh why, did Looney flog ours for just $5bn to Ineos?
Best
Happy
Markets disappointed at no increase in divi or share buyback by Exxon maybe? Instead paying off debt..
What BP have in terms of advantage is a MASSIVE trading arm .... if that doesn't make them serious cash during this rising market nothing will.
Yes, very strange day with O&G majors today....
aimo
Exxon massively beat analysts expectations. Profits super surge and yet.....you guessed it. The SP down.
I hope that this isn't a pre warning for what is to come on Tuesday.
Exxon are due to report their Q2 results in 10 mins. It will be interesting to see how the market reacts. The numbers should be great.
In normal times I would expect this would give BP a lift.
Other industry commentators state this as a positive market reflecting switch off fossil to renewable whilst many peers doing better than BP have fall off edge of cliff strategies.
licker
I have no idea like the rest. Seeing BP back in the 280's is unexplainable. The only ones who know are the ones who are controlling the SP. Maybe lack of liquidity is enabling market makers to manipulate the price.
licker - stating that you are reducing output by 40% over the next 8 years is not a macro economic event. How many other oil companies have put a number to reduced output over a given timescale?
If all this is true then why have BP been hammered far more than all other majors for these macro sector factors
Zac0_4
That's a possibility. The much discussed and hoped for re-rating may have happened. This SP could be fair value, the new normal. Comparisons with pre covid valuations meaningless.
Maybe a re-rated valuation based on risk. Risk of transition cost and ROI. Risk of return on investment of the multi-billions being invested. Will they all pay off.? Will BP massively overpay for the promise of returns that can only be estimated, best case scenario , desk top calculations.
Risk of future western government policy, COP26 in November and the risk of the climate pressure lobby on legislation.
Risk, or more of a certainty, that the price of oil will not remain at these high levels for more than a few years. If Opec+ restrictions are ended, as planned, at the end of 2022, we may see a free-for-all and a big drop in the poo and the resulting lack of revenue to continue investing in BP's long game of transition. Where would that leave BP's long term business plan ?
These are risks and there are probably many more.
Only time will tell if any of them were valid concerns.
Anyone that says something will happen in markets "for sure" doesn't have a clue lets be honest. Markets are highly random and irrational, especially in the short term. Bp lags its peers thats for sure and the market seems to not appreciate the uncertainty in the pivot to renewables. This could lag for a while, but to say it 100% couldn't be over 300 soon especially with earnings next week and oil where it has been is ridiculous. :) Also xom and chevron both just beat, and are trading up pre market so bodes well for bp especially with rds yesterday aswell.
Just overall market feel and my own...... this will test 280 again for sure next week. There is no momentum here. Markets are due a correction, inflation, no momentum etc blah blah- these factors will pull this down along with large Institutions pulling this down. This is not a buy right now for sure IMO.
denman you thought the bottom was more likely 285/290 2 weeks ago, whats changed?
In other words this aint seeing £3 plus for a peroid of time. I t will pick up back end of year/early next. BUY at 255-265 levels and hold.............
It could simply be that the market has rebased BP value based on (i) a stated 40% reduction in output over the next 8 years, and (ii) a lack of clarity around future costs, revenue and profit from the transition to renewables.
Hey licker
Absolutely no need to apologise mate.
Have a fantastic day.
It's mystifying really. One possible is a very large seller in the background like a sovereign wealth fund? Has anyone been watching trades and volumes here? I haven't.
Indeed we are I was a bit curt inapplogise. All I can see on downside are redundancy payments GOM but that's an very well known matter.
Licker
We are on the same team. Your hopes for the share price are totally aligned with mine. I am a long term holder of BP, in the 'hope' that the next 12 months plus will see an end to the uncertainty and turbulence and that we all make a lot of money out of being invested in BP and while we wait a loyalty payment via the dividend will be maintained and possibly, if not probably increased. ( a seperate debate I know )
I see from your posts that you have substantial funds invested in BP, as do I.
I also see that you believe market analysts and market movers are aware, in the main, of the upcoming results prior to announcement, so do I and you scratch your head as to the reason of BP's position, again, so do I.
Nothing would give me greater satisfaction if the results, next week, results in a lift in confidence and share price and commences a rally on the share price over coming months but I sense that something may not be right, as you post, are we missing something?
Have a great day.
MarkGo