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Cheers fatbanker
pb940 - its common for leasing vendors to have their own leasing expertise, but that applies whether the deals are done on own BSheet or using a third party leasing provider either disclosed or undisclosed. The company also needs people able to sell a leasing package concept as part of a sales drive of electrolyte or other tangibles.
Wasn't one of the Bushveld jobs advertised the other day regarding leasing? Would that mean it's in-house?
DBB.. I think those large buyers then took part in the 150m share Fundraiser finalised in March 2018.. In fact a couple were named and their background given (company sales for very large amounts) in the RNS in March 2018.
I'm not questioning Alfacomp concept of a friendly seller just trying to understand why and why at this very very critical time in the growth of BMN. I did also mention electrolyte leasing and this could be as a non-direct investment. It could be to support one of our new to be battery companies by helping to finance their battery manufacturing plant or it could just be total pie in the sky on my part... But I just keep going back to that word Consortium used in March 2018 RNS and again for Enerox VIP and what about the timing of when said seller started selling. Was the same tame seller the one who perhaps worked with our big shorter last year...
As you say Alfacomp is it relevant within the bigger picture... Yes if they are an enabler...
Question... Who will be funding our electrolyte lease deals? Lease company... outside or in-house. No info was forthcoming on who carried the paperwork on the last one...will we ever get to know.. Is there a case for setting up our own leading department/company...i would say yes.
To be fair Fortune made that comment in London in April 2017 & a lot of water has passed under the bridge since then. It may still stand but quite possibly not.
@Bella6532, If it is a 'friendly' selling down surely they will be known by Fortune? and didn't Fortune say that he has buyers for large amounts of stock.
Bella - I'm not sure that the mere advertisement of the VIP concept would necessarily be sufficient to avoid the inside knowledge of many of the crucial details of the VIP funding for say Enerox or Avalon/RedT. These details cannot surely be said to have zero impact on the BMN share price so are not sufficiently disconnected to avoid the issue of insider trading. No matter, we'll find out in the fullness of time and none of this has much bearing on the ultimate success of the company or its SP.
Alfacomp... 'It appears that you are using the term 'Tame Seller' to indicate some kind of investor who is selling down in a not too aggressive way so as to participate in a subsequent funding round for the company. '
No not to participate in a funding round just selling share holding then putting the profits into the Consortium VIP funding pot. Rather different and if BMN have no target right now then it would not be insider trading since the whole VIP funding concept and Consortium have already been presented to the market.
Alfacomp... 'It appears that you are using the term 'Tame Seller' to indicate some kind of investor who is selling down in a not too aggressive way so as to participate in a subsequent funding round for the company. '
No not to participate in a funding round just selling share holding then putting the profits into the Consortium VIP funding pot. Rather different and if BMN have no target right now then it would not be insider trading since the whole VIP funding concept and Consortium have already been presented to the market.
Bella - I think we are using the term 'Tame Seller' in different ways - I use it to mean 'the Market Makers Tame Seller' - i.e. someone who has gone to the market makers, presumably having previously been a participant in a large placing , who says to them 'what can you get for my 10 Million shares ?' and then puts the disposal into the hands of the market makers to drop in when they feel like it after each spike of buying interest. Having a setup like this makes it very easy for the Market Makers to sell short (i.e. what they do not have) into the short-lived buying pressure that characterises AIM, only to walk it back later on for when they print the sell for their pot.
It appears that you are using the term 'Tame Seller' to indicate some kind of investor who is selling down in a not too aggressive way so as to participate in a subsequent funding round for the company. The trouble with this is that this would probably amount to insider trading and would be illegal as they are trading whilst party to information that the rest of the market has not yet been informed of, thus I think unlikely in this situation.
Alfacomp. Many thanks for your extremely detailed response.
I see where you're coming from, however, the 150m placing shares were admitted end March 2018 and its FMs comment in the Placing RNS that leads me to belive if there is a tame seller it is to reinvest in something like our VIP investments or electrolyte financing.
'"We are delighted by the response from investors to this capital raise which was significantly oversubscribed. We are particularly pleased to welcome to the Company a consortium of highly experienced mining investors as well as several leading UK institutional investors who buy into and support our ambitions to build a significant low cost and integrated primary vanadium Company. '
The shares in issue after admission was 1,061,333,862 so if said seller is under the radar they would have to stay below the 3% reporting level of around 30m and if this was sold at 22p min less cost would generate a profit for the seller of around £3m...obvious anything above 22p would generate greater profit.
Could the Consortium of highly experienced mining investors be the same as our latest VIP investment consortium.. If so then a tame seller would make more sense to me especially with so many significant company events about to be announced, secured and completed....
Bella - I'm sorry that I have not yet convinced you but perhaps these articles will demonstrate that I do have something of a handle on what I am talking about:-
https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/when-will-erongo-clear-255 and then https://www.thebushveldperspective.com/blog/public-blog-1/post/the-end-of-erongo-260
You suggest that the volume since November 2018 (when the SP peaked at around 50p) has been sufficient to permit the disposal of upwards of 50 Million shares (let's say only 1/3rd of the 150M+ placed out at 10.3p in march 2018) - at an average price of 35p per share - this equates to GBP 17M of shares that would need to change hands. This works out at an average of GBP 50,000 that needs to pass from the tame sellers into the hands of private investors every single day (as there appear to be no obvious opportunities for Institutional Investors to load up in the way that they usually do on the back of AIM companies.) On the back an envelope this seems rather ambitious.
To be more precise in the 330 trading days since the 20th November the average trading volume has been almost exactly 4 Million. It might seem an obvious thing to assert that with this number it should be possible to shift 150,000 shares a day. That would appear to be obtained by sells of 1.925M and Buys of 2.075M right ?
Unfortunately there are many mechanisms that flatter this volume number - for example we recently had Vaneck buying c. 20 million shares then loaning them to shorters who then sold those shares followed by the reversal of those positions and repeated twice over. That 160 Million of share trades immediately knocks the average volume back from 4M to around 3.5M.
Then we have those people who are regularly cycling T20 trades or other sorts of leveraged positions who have to execute rollovers just to stay in the game. I estimate that that could knock the average volume back by another 0.5M over that period - so now we are down to the situation of requiring 1.575M Buys versus 1.425M Sells per day. i.e. Buys to outweigh Sells by 10.5%.
That of course is only for the situation of 50M shares being sold down. If it turns out that 150M are looking to be disposed of, then that of course requires Buys of 1.725M versus Sells of 1.275M - i.e. Buys outweigh sells by 35% in order for the historical volume to have been sufficient to mop up the entire share overhang.
In an environment where the Vanadium price has taken a beating it is hard to see that second figure being achieved and even the first one seems not to be a slam dunk. None of this analysis seems to rule out the possibility of a significant block of shares being sold down by the market makers as and when they wish to.
RK... Any ideas on who the next VIP might be?
Apologies if you've already discussed same.
Not just us. Look at the market generally over the same period. We've fared better than some, and will recover and move on.
No problem.
24p... 19.5p... rince & repeat
Hi Alfacomp... I'm not sure I really go with the tame seller. Sorry.
If you look at the daily volume history since the shares you refer to were purchased there has been more than enough volume at much higher prices to have cleared said overhand especially during the shorting period.
Personally I think we are just seeing the effects of lack of news taking BMN into the real world of a multifaceted and vertical lly integrated player within the sustainable energy marketplace actually delivering some income...not just a miner saying they are going to do this and that.
Plus lack of liquidity...Those backroom boys love a bunch of new shares or warrants coming to market they can ride up the SP on the back of rather than having to work at getting.
Finally a jittery marketplace with CV out there and an aggressive media and social media putting out all sorts of nonsense.
If there is a seller then why? The only reason someone might be trying to offload a large number of shares and it would have to be below 3% might be to raise funds to reinvest some other way in BMN or BE. As one of the VIP investors perhaps or leasing backer. To sell now just doesn't make sense unless they see the SP moving even closer to their buy in price...
Bella - well if the Tame Seller will not accept less than 22p they have to go elsewhere to nab the shares they need. Unfortunately once they have a tame seller on the hook like this they can use it to get the price lower to get even more shares. The real question is whether any significant sells show up following the drive down to sub 19.5p this morning. If not then it may have been an attempt to grab some leveraged share position that didn't work out.
Me too. I'd love to know. Although period of exclusivity ends at end Feb, I'm not convinced even news of completion of Enerox will make much difference to SP. Its news of big orders we need. And just because exclusivity period ends does that automatically mean news follows? Jonny Maz are you still reading - would love your thoughts on the process.
Bella, what do you know? Please tell or is it just a hunch?
Ahmen to that Bella
Seems to me they're just ticking over trying to fill the odd order. If they are having to tree shake what happened to the tame seller and/or share overhang. Funny how they manage to fill orders in a spike or dont they in reality. Or do they put them through and then once spike peaks they drop the price to encourage the sells so they then pick up the cheap shares to fill the orders they sold days before...all on credit... They could still be doing this.
Who knows what the back room boys get up to but it's going to get interesting from end this week onwards... I hope they're ready...
Alfa - It's just a shame that when these tree shakes happen and the buys still outweigh the sells, the price does not move up.
They're really holding it back...
Perhaps the trouble with shaking trees is that you risk having a coconut fall on your head.
Not sure the tree shake worked that well - now over 550,000 more shares bought than sold today
It just seems that the Mm's are under orders not to let this go, I wish I had a few £million to really test their resolve.
YOU SHALL NOT RISE!