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SP Angel further raise their next 12 months from 0.5p to 0.6p for 2022. At today's 9.2p price that puts us on a forward PE of 16. Not sure why IC think it's moved from 0.4p however! I went back to this thread to double check it was previously NTM of 0.5p
https://www.investorschronicle.co.uk/tips-ideas/2002/01/02/latest-update-companies-smashing-broker-forecasts/
Icarus69 : regarding your question on China supply/demand, I'll just repeat comments taken from a Terry Perles interview and Crux Investor's article - others may have more info.
A decline in Chinese domestic demand for steel production (e.g. due to property industry decline) simulatneously reduces both supply and demand for vanadium, because most Chinese vanadium is produced as a by-product of iron ore extraction, and much Chinese demand for vanadium is as an additive to steel rebar for buildings.
Away from the property industry there is also the China 'blue sky policy' which reduces supply because it limits the volumes of steel produced for export and therefore the vanadium produced as by-product. However some claim this doesn't reduce demand because only a small portion of the exported steel is rebar.
Hope this helps. Ev.
"Is it darkest before the dawn?"
Oh, don't say that I did once and got lecture for it...........lol!
Perhaps Agricore should say what Agricore thinks? And believes.
I believe the nail was hit on the head when someone said the stock market is driven by sentiment. Least in the short run.
The fact that Investor's Chronicle list BMN almost at the top of earnings upgrades was interesting to me. The fact that we know investment is driving down cost and is starting to pay off (based on quarterly updates). At the same time the commodity price is improving. The fact that new markets for vanadium are emerging (yet are nascent). The fact that regulations are driving higher proportion of vanadium to be used in steelmaking. The fact that the US has signed off its infrastructure stimulus. The fact that the Chinese plan to do the same in 2022. All these facts lend weight to the idea that when brokers claim improvement is coming that we are not viewing the Emperor's clothes.
The wholesale dismissal of all analysts and all tips is just foolishness.
But the blind acceptance of their every word is too.
In the case of BMN I have concerns about the BOD; I have concerns about the VRFB economics. I wrote to BMN's Investor Relations asking them to explain the economics because all we know is they spent $1m in last year's accounts. There's no "business plan" just a vague plan and we learned they planned to recruit a Consultant last year to start to plan. Did my email to them make them think "hmm we need a plan?". I don't know. And I hope not. They didn't reply to acknowledge my emails by the way, which I considered quite rude. And by the way the analysts don't cover the economics of VRFB either, in their broker notes. I'd also admit that I relied on a broker note as part of my rationale and now feel once bitten, twice shy about that particular person and when I see their videos and tips I take what they say with a large pinch of salt.
So there's reasons to feel negative. Still. But I also think going back to the facts that the improving costs, the improving demand outlook and the stabilisation of the situation that the improved broker outlook is justified.
Most importantly - the negative sentiment has moved this down to a level that's not justified by its fundamentals.
Is it darkest before the dawn?
Appreciate that’s not what some will want to hear, but reality IMO
IMO share price will start to move up again once enough PI’s whom invested higher up capitulate. Someone is clearly trying to re-test the lows to get more to sell and a better buy in as low as possible.
i am still here
I'm devastated.
CC I allowed you out of the green box just for today. However, you are still spouting the same rubish you have been for too long. Back to the green box!
Says the poster who tried to decieve and control this bb with multiple accounts.
Apologies Pdub, but it's you that's missing the point of the thread. Let's start again, Agricore said "Forecast price from 2 analysts put BMN at either 20p or 30p. One bag or double bag either way things are improving here."
This infers that he believes in the broker forecasts and that things are looking up because, according to those forecasts, the SP will double or triple. I'm saying, broker forecasts are worthless and BMNs history of horribly incorrect forecasts proves it. According to rumour, one of BMN's brokers (Peel Hunt) just got dumped for giving a ludicrous forecast whilst simultaneously shorting BMN (lol).
Ultimately, because I'm honest enough to accept that broker forecasts aren't worth the paper they're written on, I'm accused of being a deramper, and the scum all come out of their holes to beat me down for offering a rather uncontroversial opinion that is backed up by evidence.
That's the story of BMN on lse.co.uk - people wanting to control the narrative and shut down any opposing view that doesn't fit their agenda, not 'trolls' blah blah. If people don't like trolls, there's a filter button.
Pdub, there's no intelligent discussion on the Telegram group, it's full of idiots posting cartoon GIFs and ramping the share.
Hope you're well.
Cindercone, the reason some LTH's have ceased posting or significantly reduced their time spent here is is due to the drivel posted by the likes of you. Fortunately there are other platforms where many re still very active sharing their wealth of knowledge. Id suggest to anyone else here who is sick and tired of the trolls to jump onto twitter and leave behind the cesspit that has LSE has unfortunately become.
On brokers Cindercone I think you are confusing what I said. For simplicity I didn’t say their forecasts were correct. That makes most of your comment irrelevant.
I said that their forecast was based upon their assessment of company performance … past, present and future.
Therefore if they see significant sp rises ahead it suggests that they see positives in the above. Individuals are free to decide whether to take any notice of those analysts.
Cindercone that is a little naughty.
You should know by now as it has been discussed numerous times that many shareholders and former regular contributors to LSE bb have moved to other platforms for sensible discussion about BMN. Some may have sold but many simply sought intelligent debate away from the nonsense that has plagued this site.
from my knowledge theyve moved to telegram as LSE was infested with derampers.
Not currently invested in BMN but have been previuosly and on my list as potential investments when and if EUA finally sells.
Might have been touched on at the time, but does the situation in China/Evengrande affect the demand for Vanadium in the short term? obviously theres suggestions we are heading for recessions world wide and this can affect the demand for Vanadium in a couple of ways.
1 negative, new projects mothballed demands drops
2. positive, govts invest in infrastructure projects to stimulate lagging economies.
Has anyone any views. Sorry if already disgussed previuosly.
I'm not asking people to trust me, unlike your fraud mates Ophidian with his Elliot Wave Charts, Alfachump and all those other LTHs who have almost completely disappeared after ramping BMN to hell and back so they can trade the share.
Vanadium prices.
European ferro-vanadium prices have increased since the beginning of the year, and some market participants expect the trend to continue as sellers hike their offers in response to potential supply shortages in the first quarter.
Ferro-vanadium prices were assessed today at $34-35/kg duty paid Rotterdam, up by around 5.3pc since the start of the year when they stood at $32.50-33/kg. Vanadium pentoxide flake prices have also edged up this week to $8.35-9.00/lb, having previously held firm at $8-9/lb since 9 December.
The price hikes are in part a reaction to news of flooding in the Bahia region of Brazil, which has impacted vanadium production in the region since late December, a producer confirmed. Sellers raised their offers on the expectation that the flooding could tighten global supply in January-February, with some traders currently offering ferro-vanadium as high as $35.50/kg
https://www.argusmedia.com/en/news/2291502-supply-fears-drive-eu-ferrovanadium-price-hikes
Post of the day gambitxjs.
The only scam around here (and most people here know) is you cinders mate with your multiple accounts on lse - couple of years ago after lths exposed you and management banned you but then somehow mysteriously managed to reopen this account - NOT TO BE TRUSTED!!!
Broker targets are just part of your investment decision and of course they are positive. If they indicate 10/20% increase in sp then they probably just expect things to tootle along but if they predict a doubling or more then they are very positive about the future, and they are.
Pdub "All I would say is that broker targets are issued after studying past and current performance of the business (not share price) and what they expect of the business (not share price) in future. That shapes their share price forecast."
I completely disagree, broker targets are issued because all AIM-listed companies have to have a broker and the broker is basically paid to publish a positive price target. It's a very murky business - I'd go as far as to call it a total scam. Brokers are wined and dined to give positive price targets, information is withheld from them, and even if they know a business is going through turbulence they're not going to significantly downgrade (beyond what the price currently is) a price target to reflect that. The broker note 'might' have some useful information, but the price target itself is complete nonsense and only a moron would use it as an SP guide.
If so-called 'experts' SP Angel knew anything about vanadium market fundamentals, why didn't they predict or at least warn of the vanadium price collapse in 2018? Even on the way down, they upheld their absurd price target while the SP was falling through the floor. IMO SP Angel are about as much use as a chocolate dildo and I'm surprised BMN haven't dumped them because their reports often look like they're written by a 12-year-old.
Broker targets on AIM are pretty irrelevant as the market is primarily sentiment driven and not data driven
Cindercone we are all free to express our opinions here but I think loudspeaker may have a point about broker targets being exceeded in 2018.
All I would say is that broker targets are issued after studying past and current performance of the business (not share price) and what they expect of the business (not share price) in future. That shapes their share price forecast.
As the business performance (not share price) has made significant strides forward in 2021 with further positive steps in 2022 expected (eg Vanchem second kiln, electrolyte plant, etc) it is not surprising that this is reflected in positive broker forecasts.
You are challenging Agricore’s contention that things are improving. You may argue that based on sp they are not. However the thinking person may choose to look behind the share price forecasts and understand how the business is developing. They might then be tempted to agree with Agricore and to disagree with your somewhat blunt response.
Just my opinion.