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Yes, it was indeed rushed, jam2morrow! It was so quick that I didn't have a chance to partake in the Retail Offer @ 45p. But at least, I had a chance to Buy in Lower afterwards, especially since I'd just Bought @ 57p & 58p a few days prior! My average is now 46p, so not too bad.
Yes it is 75% of votes cast, that’s why it is so important every pi votes. Ultimately the institutions are the ones that can block this, but if every pi voted we also have a good chance.
What is unusual with this RNS is the level of detail given considering it is only a notice of a potential offer. Typically these notices are very brief and are only used to avoid any rumours or market manipulation. In this case the notice of possible offer is pages and pages of legal text - this has been in the making for months. The board did the placing in the full knowledge Ganfeng would offer. Every step they haven’t cared but are lining their own pockets. It’s really quite terrible and embarrassing but they won’t care when the pay check arrives.
Coldjoe, to answer your point at 16:10, those 2 paragraphs are not contradictory. Ignore the 2nd para you pasted: Ganfeng has until 3rd June 2021 to submit its Offer or announce it does not intend to submit an Offer. But it can ask for an Extension.
During the AA plc Bid Situation, the PE firms frequently asked for and were granted Extensions because the PE firms wanted more time to complete their Due Diligence.
after reading the potential offer couple of times I'm still not sure about the timetable. Does GF need to come up with formal offer until the 3rd of June unless they ask for extension? These two paragraphs seems to contradict each other:
In accordance with Rule 2.6(a) of the Code, by not later than 5.00 p.m. on 3 June 2021, Ganfeng must either announce a firm intention to make an offer for the Company in accordance with Rule 2.7 of the Code or announce that it does not intend to make an offer, in which case the announcement will be treated as a statement to which Rule 2.8 of the Code applies. This deadline can be extended with the consent of the Panel on Takeovers and Mergers in accordance with Rule 2.6(c) of the Code.
It is expected to take up to eight months for the Outbound Direct Investment Pre-Condition to be satisfied, such that in the event that each Pre-Condition has been satisfied (or alternatively waived if capable of waiver), the Agreed Form 2.7 Announcement should be made prior to 31 December 2021.
I don’t think wondering why the Share Price isn’t currently closer to Ganfeng’s prospective Offer Price or whether the Share Price will fall if Ganfeng were to fail in its Bid is effective use of our time.
This isn’t a FTSE100 or 250 Stock like G4S or William Hill or Entain where the Share Price rocketed close to or even higher than prospective Bids. This is a relatively unknown AIM Stock, which, despite its Profile being very kindly been raised by the Daily Telegraph and Sir Iain Duncan Smith, is still very lightly traded.
Until such time as Ganfeng actually makes its Offer or something else newsworthy happens, this may continue to yo-yo between 55p & 58p. Unless we have the funds to Buy hundreds of thousands of Shares a day, there’s nothing we can do about it.
Ive been reading a few articles in mining technology and seeking alpha etc etc and they all talk of immediate 16% upside blah blah, and the BOD recommending etc etc -- have people gone mad ? To be talking about a share like this is this way is pathetic, when anyone with a brain knows this is worth so much more ! The day traders are over the moon it seems, and to be honest I will make money, but we could have made so much more !!
Another example of PI's being shafted on AIM. I have two tranches , one in an ISA, at around the offer price and another at a higher price , thankfully not a lot of money. Putting this down at a loss , looks like the board accepted the offer with open arms. Let them buy it and hopefully the Mexican government give them hassle.
Indeed Mr C. That is the unfathomable thing. Why are the BOD so enthusiastic to rubber stamp this apparently low ball approach. We are the owners, they are the appointed board running the show for us. So tell us why. Its only 18 odd months since GF was just a party with whom there was an offtake agreement for our product Now they look like they are going to own the whole bl**dy thing lock stock and barrel.
To be honest (myself included) we should have seen this coming, and the fact that they also get a large stake in Zinn as a bonus makes complete sense - ie the change to control 2 resources for the price of 1. The way secker seems to be welcoming the deal is suspicious as you say, is there something we dont know or have Ganfeng just given him the nod ????
Good point about ZNWD. I don't know the answer, BCN must have some arrangement absolving them from the requirement to bid, maybe that is transferred in these circumstances? Think that's one for any corporate lawyers here. See what you mean about the project level stake, but don't forget how little GF are paying for the other 50% or the project. Their £180m buys them the 50% of SLL shares they don't own, 40% of ZNWD (with a MC of £56.4m) and access to the£100m+ in BCNs bank account (admittedly they already indirectly own 28.8% of these items). Less any liabilities of course on BCNs balance sheet. Fraid I'm not feeling motivated enough to quantity all that at the moment more accurately but suffice it to say that it doesn't look bad deal for GF shareholders - i have no gripes with GF, they are a business and seem to be running that business extraordinarily well, they answer to their shareholders not to BCNs. Our gripe is with our BOD, and at least I would like an explanation as to why they think this is a good deal. How about a video with PS talking to Proactive or better still CRUX - he's done that before and I would expect him to face some searching questions. if no such interview appears then we can form our own opinions as to why it is being avoided. Conclusion: This is a cheeky enough deal to be significantly increased if rejected by BCN Shareholders so lets hope it is.
Remember that Ganfeng do not need to buy the shares they already own; so effectively their 67.5p offer represents 70% of the company ie if they buy all shares they need to spend @ £180M but if another bidder came in at same price they would need to buy all 384M shares at 67.5p-a cost of 257M. I was thinking about Ganfeng's 50/50 stake at project level; if they bought out the whole company the payment for that stake would not have been necessary ? ...I think? Also interesting to see what happens with KDNC and ZNWD. Ganfeng would have 40% of ZNWD if this deal goes thru so they would have to issue mandatory takeover bid ?.... again, not completely sure here.
Depends on the reason that the deal doesn't go through. If the deal fails due to failing to get the support necessary, 75%, then I can't see it falling back to 45p. That is because the 67.5p valuation by a willing suitor provides perspective on the company worth, added to the message/publicity about this company that has been sent to the wider investing community as a result of the bid. People are aware there is a major company here in a growing green marketplace. However if the deal falls through because GF decides not to bid then that is a different matter. That would raise questions of why? Did due diligence reveal something previously unknown? The damage of confidence in the company could then cause a fall back to prior levels. I think it unlikely as DD must have been done in detail by GF in pursuing the 28.8% holding. A failed deal, for whatever reason, has changed Bacanora. We previously had a partner in GF who had not previously tried to move beyond working as part of a JV with its other investments. We would then have a JV partner who is apparently not working in harmony but reluctantly within the current arrangements. Hostile if you like. That worries me a bit. So we have c.384m shares in issue once the latest GF shares are admitted. Therefore every 1% needed to oppose the deal will require 3, 840,000 shares to be pledged. It will need some effort, even us vocal shareholders on this board who bother to discuss the company may struggle to muster 1 or 2% between them.
If the deal doesnt go thro - yes I think it will re-rate below 50p but in the medium term (apart from day traders) who cares. The 67p offer has provided a valuation view moving forward, and we are moving towards a time when this resource is going to be fought over -- that is assuming the BOD will actually start doing their jobs !!!!!!!