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My take is all share/boards have a portion of stoopid narrow minded investors. ODX got someone else's portion too. Many are just chancers like in BRH who haven't applied much rationality to their investment let alone research. Whilst I had respect for the CEO I now think even he is playing on that by ramping on about the Mologic test. Many are too stoopid to understand the extent of differential between the Avct sensitivity (99per cent U30 CT) and that of the Mologic test (less sensitive at U25 with an easier reference point form of PCR as Pottery has noted). Many of them go on about market cap being lower which they stoopdily think means it has more upward runway (no assessment of addressable markets). Almost as bad as the muppets from NYCT who like to pretend past revenue is a rational basis on which to select it over the likes of Avct.
Schools or airports?
Now let's have a think about that one.
Ok. Thinking over. Airports sounds good.
Onwards Avacta.
Changed your tune today sneaky, it was all about the avacta bash yesterday! What's changed? Or is it just because you a sneaky?
My belief is that the Innova tests will continue to be used on mass for schools etc - PHE published that it was 82% accurate so ticks that box for the govt for schools / offices.
The quality LFT's Mologic / Surescreen / AVCT will be used for more specific use - airport travel, hospitals etc. Maybe longer term the volume will increase but shorter term, will be limited.
As an ODX holder, I think I can say most ODX holders are a little weary of the rampy tweets (followed usually by director sells and or a dour RNS!)
I think its a bit more this time - papers are reporting news tmw on travel and suggestion that LFT news may also be given.
Not holding my breath, but surprised at the rise and the fact we are keeping the rise.....
Seems to be a leak in odx!
Or just the ramptastic tweets having an effect....
Its been done.
“Verification of manufactured batches against product specifications (by end April)"
"Commercial roll-out to commence in May”
Can't disagree with someone else's beliefs/thoughts but one question Si, why have the DPS not began to announce tenders, press began their positive LFT-related news surge, manufacturers not announced which test they are making for UK Gov? Mologic/ODX test is there, it's ready, it's use-by date is ticking daily - get it out to the public!?
I believe also a next-gen LFT (using Affimers) will be in pipeline, why would it not be Affimers. Superiority is in all scientific reports and also in AVCT's clinical validation.
Good luck to ODX, sure the price will steadily increase LT - but risk perceived for me is next to none (unless DHSC don't pay up!), so upside is also limited. Capacity is there. AVCT will sell all they can make, I can assure you of that, and also all that others can make for them (within white-label tests).
"@JimBethell We’re investing in 2m LFDs per week by end May from British firms @OmegaDiagnostic and @mologic to stop the spread of COVID-19. Investment in talent will help "build back better" & create 100s of jobs".
Sovereign test just waiting for CE mark by Mologic!
As an ODX holder and admirer of AVCT from afar (mostly for the personalised medicine arm) i can say that animosity has been spiked on both boards by visitors from the other.
I also tend to post on the ODX board purely objectively from my experience of working in the In Vitro Diagnostic industry and have received abuse on many an occasion when what im saying has favoured Mologic in the race. This has happened even when i state that i believe there will be multiple "sovereign tests" of which AVCT will be a member (my opinion is Mologic first to market)
I remain perplexed by the path the AffiDx has taken to get to where it is but will happily agree the CV results are good (although will point out that we should be stating 95% confidence intervals to assess performance rather than headline figure) once all the ducks are in a row regarding technical documentation and CE marking with mologics support/ approval of avactas ISO14385 QMS im sure the product will be a goer.
I like AVCT and want all British Biotech companies to do well (obviously im biased here) hopefully this rivalry can die down once newsflow starts occurring. Im sure the companies themselves find it laughable.
My take was that AVCT had a good test but seemed to be struggling to deliver it within timeframe, thus you had reource input from ODX and Mologic (and the CE mark ofcourse).
I 100% believe Q3 / Q4 their will be a combined AVCT / Mologic test - I also believe that this will also show if you have flu and / or covid (Mologic are working with Glasgow uni, converting a Lamp test into an LFT).
This would make more sense - what happens though in the short term is anyone's guess - ODX is looking pretty healthy move today so suggests Mologic as A test, AVCT though potentially to follow when you get the CE mark...........
Simon, I think it was very honest of the ceo re: contract being 50m thru 374.
There's a lot of misunderstanding and ramping over the government tenders. Investors just looking at headline figures.
So you reckon as the manufacturer you are going to be making around 21% pure PROFIT per test?
I hope you are right for the sake of ODX holders but my opinion is that is too high. I recall numerous threads about profit per test on the ODX board over recent months and figures from 50p to £1 PROFIT per test were thrown around so £1.50 pure profit seems on the high side to me. I do agree with you on the point that ODX will probably be hitting around £2 per share if everything aligns and the government contract hits its potential.
That's possible - that guy who works for ODX updated his LinkedIN (and quickly changed it!) that he was supporting AVCT with testing. Personally, I don't think that was a sign of the AVCT test being transferred, I think it was literally support to AVCT.
The TT from Mologic to us took maybe 3 months (it was a bit wooley on when it started and ended!)
epson, Wouldn't it be a turn up if Mologic has been TTing our test all along? :-)
I think two reasons
1. The experience with the UKRTC and the ABC-19 which due to the GOVT mishandling of the procurement /
2. ODX's communication is prettty poor - tweets (Walbrook) are very rampy, the RNS's are very matter of fact and almost deramping
3. The contract announcement was truly awaful - it emphasised twice that it was for a minimum of £50m and while it was for £374m, it could be a lot less - basically, ODX deramped it. From that point, the SP dropped like a stone
On the tech transfer front - could anyone in the know explain if it's possible that the TT could have been going on behind the scenes and any delay in manufacturing our test (if chosen) would not exist or would be minimal at worst?
I personally think a lot of the perceived bitterness that ODX holders have towards Avacta potentially being THE test is down to the belief that ODX would have to tech transfer before producing and this would lead to a reasonably lengthy delay.
Appreciate the response Simon, IMO TT won't take 2-3 months. The casing being used is Mologic's, GAD have the end-to-end process in place so it is a rather simple process and it will also be in process currently.
They won't be handed instructions and have to get going from that date. TT is a very broad spectrum of things encapsulated in an over-used term, you may have reasoning to your 2-3 months but I don't think it will take that long if it's not the Mologic test.
I Agree re Mologic, they have huge tie ins with Wellcome Trust and the Gates Foundation - GAD shows that - AVCT are tied in with GAD.
oh, and the £5 prediction was from a muppet ODX holder who then sold anyway at mid nineties - most would predict a max of £2 to £2.50 but as per AVCT, its all about contracts now we have the products.......
They just want confirmation that they’re going to start making something. They were given similar grand promises and contracts for the pointless antibody test that ended up canned.
I don’t see much risk when it comes to the govt here. There’s a question mark over using their capacity, but if the margins are higher elsewhere, who cares? I see anything govt related to be a bonus on top of selling in to Europe to meet the significant demand. I get the impression PresAl is pig sick of them faffing about and like everyone else just wants our test on sale asap
PL - the contract is £374m. Yes, the machinery is govt by that costs only 1-2m (the govt also gave Mologic / GAD £11m ish). £374m for 1m tests per week for a month = 52m tests per annum. That's about £7.19 per test (I am sure it will be closer to £5 but this is quick calculation). Its estimated we will make about £1.50 per test, so conservative profit of £78m. That is half our capacity LFT wise.
Since we already have TT'ed the Mologic test if that is the one (and I don't believe that it will be one sovereign test) then we can start making 1m per week immediately. If it is the AVCT test, then TT will need to occur and that can take 2-3 months. The contract is a draw down so we are not losing money, but better to be earning the money sooner rather than later - I am sure as vaccines continue to reduce cases around the world, the demand will be smaller for testing.
"Spot on Craig - given the bulk of their volume will come from the govt using govt equipment, chances are they'll only make pennies per test. How much does a swipe of pritt stick cost?"
Sisu - to be honest, I don't have an idea of where this term 'soverign test came from - I suspect their will be at least two. This may change in the future (a test with covid and flu is being developed by Mologic at the moment - that would be big I think).
The challenge as I see it is that Mologic ticks a lot of boxes politically - GAD is a not for profit spin out from Mologic. It has lots of donations - Bill Gates foundation for one. They do lots of support for developing countries - it will look good politically to select Mologic as a test.
A genuine question and happy for it to be answered by ODX investors (we know they frequent!) - what is the 'big' news ODX await for? Consistent comments on Twitter/LSE about awaiting for the big news and re-rate, I assume it's related to the Gov announcing the Sovereign test? We know they are producing x amount of tests for the Government regardless of which test. I don't see the risk so I don't see as much of an upside?
Not trying to shoot anything down just understanding the risk SP-wise attached to AVCT ST is probably aligned to UK Gov, due to the expectation built (and knowing this expectation will be partly built into current SP manufacturing figures dependant). ODX don't have such a risk in that regard, where does the upside live, intricacies of the contract I assume?
Spot on Craig - given the bulk of their volume will come from the govt using govt equipment, chances are they'll only make pennies per test. How much does a swipe of pritt stick cost?
Some ODX holders live in a world made of candy where people ride around on unicorns across rainbows to houses made of gold.
No doubt there are some delusional holders in Avacta but I think the majority got on the ODX bus to stickittogetherland. I have heard holders in the past talk of NCYT type rises or £5+... on what exactly?
ODX will make money no doubt about it and the sensible decent holders over there deserve to make a good chunk of change but come on be realistic. ODX are pretty reliant on the government in my opinion whereas for Avacta I now see it as a nice to have but we could make more elsewhere in the worst case.
Lol! So in a word ******s!!!!!
Shall pull out and sling it in ABDX I reckon
Thks for the comments!
GLA (hopefully soon!)