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yeah, ND, fair enough . who knows then, but I am in the mindset of "preparing for the worst and hoping for the best...."
I get the gist of it ND, but You have to RNS price moving info.
The rumour of "something" happening caused the SP to got from 101p to 140p, a 40% rise. then it falls all the way back. Thats not "fair" to investors trying to make a decision on the whether or not to buy, hold or sell. Because if the rumour was/is true then it means some got hold of it before others and thats why as we all know, you have to RNS these things.
The company did not come out one or the other to say that they did not know why the SP spiked adding to the view the rise was unfounded. what if it turns out it wasn't and people bought in a140p to see go all the way down and sold out at say,105p for example, to stop any more capital loss?
We all here go back and forth daily on the SP, who's talking it down, who's talking it up etc, but if we park all that old nonsense, the vast number of AVCT share owners are PI's that don't even know this board exists let alone frequent it.
I know AIm can be a bit, well, AIM -like but nevertheless I' will personally be happy if there is behind-the-scenes news released with the but I will, at the same time be pretty disappointed in the way the company operates, if it thinks that is a professional way to carry on with their Investor base.
.... Because news of any substance will be RNS'd
No news till a full update across the business on the 30th, that's what the man said.
Since I've held every business update there have been posts stating that there's no way AS can go into a meeting without news. Guess what! Every time he went into the meeting without any additional news....
I’ve added 8% more Avacta shares to my PF at £1.10 and £1.07… took 10p off my average so sitting around £1.39 now.
Can still have some nerves tho… been in this over a year and seen it all. The ups and downs
Business doesnt get freebies any more. Plenty organisations buying en mass.
I’d agree with that cool free actually…
Think I’m in the boat of hoping for the best but am nervous of the worst.
Only because… we don’t know …yet…
The plus side is we have been decimated on SP anyways so how far can we slide if bad? Another hopeful not much further.
Because you can get plenty of tests free of charge, so why would you pay for any?
Avct
Dvrg
Odx
Abdx are all in the same boat:
Few sales - tick
Falling share prices - tick
Poor communication - tick
Shareholders moaning about the CEO - tick
Issue RNS, share price crashes - tick
“Ray no sales I hope it fails Thrirtle”.
How do you come to the conclusion there are basically no sales?
Oh for goodness sake CJ scare mongering is a bit over the top. I am just highlighting that I don't believe that the lack of news is being held back for the big reveal next week as the news we need would have to be released to update the market asap.
I am surprised that it took a few weeks to devise and yet 18 months on there are basically no sales. Manufacturer partners have dropped out (and there was no explanation as to why was there? So what's your guess as to why BBI never finished the TT?
The current TT is weeks over due. Bams which (according to this BB) was going to be a HUGE, HUGE, money spinner for AVCT went very quiet and then eventually we were told there was (effectively) no market for it.
So you tell me. Why is the silence so positive? Just Myles and Ophidian 's opinion, who actually have no more knowledge than us and all they do is (kindly) share their thoughts based on their research and conversations? Is that it. What else have you got?
Also. Deepverge have not managed to knock out any commercial widescale products yet. Not just those that include affimers. So, you're just scaremongering.
That fair enough Coolfree, but every spike in the SP makes you think "THIS IS US AT LAST!" and then the next day....zilch.
As i say my skepticism is based on historical updates from AVCT coupled with the news that we need for the test are all RNS type events which have not transpired thus far.
I don't think AVCT could hold any of them back. So while it may seem grim and I agree its just disappointing in the extreme I don't think given the scenarios, (my one against "everything is powering along in the background and there will be a bombshell of an update", then my one is unfortunately more likely . But its just my opinion.
The interview with Paul Hill looked to me like they were there to talk about AVA6000 and not LFT's, so trying to drag that into it is a load of crap.
As to scaling up, the test is out it works and has other manufacturers on standby. So how do you work out that scaling up from the lab is the problem.
What you think Dr, that I am the only person in the investment world to figure this out or come to this conclusion?
Neut, it would seem none of that matters. Clearly something has occurred between avct and the govt. Its not been considered ever as far as I can see , and if not now, when there is no reason whatsoever not to take it, then obviously never.
I just can't see any other explanation. I think HUA is only going to be good for AVCT to compete in the travel sector, but as they (the travel business) are already cracking on with using other tests, that is not a given either.
I will be as happy as anyone to have the eureka moment when the update breaks a large order signed, but I just can't see any scenario why it should be Avacta, particularly in the near future.
The US could have given emergency HUA any time over the last few months, why now, just because stocks are short of their current test? There are others out there they can use (and I bet do).
What happened to low and middle income countries? The test was validated and marked ready to go. How is it months later, and not a peep of it being used?
How has TT not happened yet?
Where is is the Far east validation not done yet? AS said it was almost identical to the EU/UK and would follow very quickly, but nothing on that either.
Its one thing to stop over promising but things like new production capacity confirmed and completed TT are RNS statements. You don't hold them back. Therefore my conclusion is we still don't have extra capacity. we don't have HUA (obviously medusa would be shouting it from the roof tops to get orders in if it was done) and we have not completed TT.
I remember when AS gave his interview with paul hill about the dosing starting and avoided talking about anything else and would not even then commit to a date for the TU. Just late September. It looked to me then that this was a policy of no news yet, fingers crossed something hits by the very latest date we have to give, which is now the date.
I hope Ophidian and Myles are right but the practical evidence (or lack of it) suggests, that AVCT are not doing much in the way of sales at present even though there would seem to be plenty of demand.
For a Tech that can be so quickly configured to detect novel viruses and variants in a matter of a few weeks, then nearly 18 months on and no appreciable sales from Deepverge, the tie-ups and AVCT themselves, is starting to make me think that what works well in the lab is much harder to scale up with the same accuracy
Just my opinion but I am now expecting a bare bones update.
Why our test?
It’s British designed and owned
Produced in Britain using British tech
It’s actually a nose prodder not a brain tickler pretending to be a nose prodder
It’s highly accurate for all variants of concern
The tech is highly adaptable to future variants
The CEO wears cute shumpers
If demand exceeds supply then everyone including Avacta will sell as much as they can make.
There is an issue about N or S protein but I think that will be dropped - Avacta data says they can identify someone with covid with high viral load (infectious). <--- that's a big full stop.
Fingers crossed - US partnership announced soon I believe.
There are settings where the accuracy matters, but it requires raising awareness of the avacta product. For example, the airlines, cruises etc. all care about accuracy to avoid bad press over mass breakouts. The workplace is a curious one, and whether testing will be used at all in a given workplace is probably driven by the culture, and the influence hr has on mandating it. One further one I can think of is visiting relatives. Accuracy is very important in that setting, but again it is vital to make this clear to consumers, as they will be none the wiser at present, and probably don't even understand all the statistical gobbledegook that we all spout on here.
This is the wording on the official Government guidance:
Type of test
The test must meet performance standards of =97% specificity, =80% sensitivity at viral loads above 100,000 copies/ml.
This could include tests such as:
a PCR test
a LAMP test
an antigen test, such as an LFD (lateral flow device) test
You must check with your test provider that the test meets the standards. You may not be able to travel if it does not.
So with our S&S results, we should be fine. I just can’t find an approved list, other than tests that have passed Porton Down.
So as per RNS of 7th June, AffiDX is registered with MHRA, does this actually mean that it is approved for use in test to release settings?
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AVCT/mhra-confirms-registration-of-lateral-flow-test-yzf825wx0nwaj0n.html