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I agree with your numbers and logic hanoihank. That’s why the fundraise, whilst it stung at the time, was so crucial. The upfront payment that would ordinarily be received is already in the bank to fund the trial. Once proven, future deals would be in the ballpark of tens of millions upfront. As you’ve suggested, this would cause some big players to have a long hard think about bidding.
Lest say, for the sake of argument, that a sucessful pro-dox product would completely displace the existing treatment and double the value of the market. (I think it could do much more than this BTW). That makes it a potential $2bn per annum product, that would not need massive sales repping to launch and grow rapidly. For a big pharma this would add at least $15 to $20 billion to their market cap. If they thought that this was only the first of many (ie the chemistry works in the human body) what would they pay to get the rights to the whole shooting match ? A typical deal on a single molecule like this would be something like $30m up front, all development costs covered, stage payments on pre agreed milestones linked to trial sucesss of maybe $200 to $ 300 million, plus a royalty at the end of perhaps 5%. Success in these early trials will see the share price go to the moon IMHO.
So after phase 1 AS looking for a major license deal.
“If we see a similar reduction in cardiotoxicity in humans in the planned phase one clinical trial of AVA6000 in 2020, then there is the potential for a major license deal that could generate a transformational, non-dilutive, upfront payment of tens of millions of dollars.
“This funding would support all our other programmes. For this reason, we are prioritising this programme with respect to use of the proceeds of today’s successful placing.”
AVA6K sales will be massive,The Avacta board know this….
Global Doxorubicin Market to Reach US$1. 4 Billion by the Year 2027. - Amid the COVID-19 crisis, the global market for Doxorubicin estimated at US$992. 8 Million in the year 2020, is projected to reach a revised size of US$1.4 Billion by 2027, growing at a CAGR of 5.3% over the analysis period 2020-2027.
@4bens - great response. As a corollary to your answer, it's also worth knowing that several big Pharma efforts to develop a small molecule drug which can Target the FAP marker with a Doxorubicin "tail" for efficacy have all come to nothing. So the genius system of carrying Doxorubicin effectively inert to the site and having the pre-CISION technology Target FAP then drop the payload is sublime. Simplicity in science is often best.
Thanks from me too. Most interesting read on here in a long time! A family friend has recently had cancer and was treated with a different chemo drug but same family of drugs. She suffered severely with low platelets and her last round had to be cancelled. She worries that it wasn’t fully treated because of this. IF this does work and even preventing some of the acuteness of side effects you can imagine the benefits. I agree management are clever when it comes to science. I would also say they are inexperienced in dealing with government (as the rest of the UK diagnostics have been as well). I’m not where you get degree in dealing with corrupt bureaucratic government … but I hear that if you pay £250k you get a honoury 1st class in it. Perhaps Al forgot to pay up? Joking aside, there is clear gov incompetence and it is hard to tell where the corruption begins.
However, Doxorubicin is part of the Anthracycline family of chemotherapies, which according to good old Wikipedia are "among the most effective anticancer treatments ever developed and are effective against more types of cancer than any other class of chemotherapeutic agents".
If you look at the other front-line chemotherapies, many of them are also Anthracycline's (look for 'rubicin' at the end of the name) - all of which have the same severe cardio toxicity, amongst other serious side effects.
Therefore, any improvement in Doxorubicin's safety profile would not only displace the existing market for Doxorubicin, but also for many of the other Anthracycline's in use.
Additionally, given the reputation of Doxorubicin, any safety improvement would attract the attention of the global oncology community, placing Avacta's technology in full view.
Much as the management are maligned on this board (unfairly, in my view), they are intelligent people who think strategically - Doxorubicin its a smart first move in my view.
With thanks to the helpful Mr A for your many contributions to the sum of human knowledge over the course of this weekend. For any interested I. The actual answer….
Avacta will file a CTA application as soon as possible for a phase I dose escalation study for its lead preCISIONTM pro-drug chemotherapy AVA6000 pro-doxorubicin. A positive outcome to this phase I study would require an improved safety profile compared with standard Doxorubicin since the efficacy of this existing chemotherapy is well known. Positive data could lead to a significant licensing opportunity for AVA6000 with companies currently marketing existing Doxorubicin products or with companies that are currently carrying out clinical studies combining Doxorubicin with their checkpoint inhibitors. A successful outcome to the study would also open the potential to using the preCISIONTM tumour targeting technology developed at Tufts University and exclusively licensed by Avacta to improve the safety profile of many other chemotherapies.
Don’t know the answer, but this sounds like the beginning of an informative and interesting thread, if the informative and interesting posters can be enticed back after this weekend’s hijacking of the board by ….. well, words fail me.
Anyone know why Doxorubicin is the first? Just interested to know if there’s a particular reason. Also what the next most likely chemos might be, once first trial is done. Doesn’t seem to be any reason why the whole chemo market couldn’t be tackled if it works. Thanks