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Maybe it is because people have done a lot of research and are pleased with their investment. maybe. :)
Do what you like with them. My advice would be never over extend your finances on any stock or stocks. There is no such thing (short of insider dealing) as a guaranteed success. (Just look at the title of this Thread) Says it all. Its a statement of fact when all it is an opinion. Could it not have had a question mark with it for just the merest semblance of humility that the original poster does not in fact know whats coming.
I don't like mindless ramping and occasionally I try and call it out. This board has a lot of it.
Its a speculative stock that because of its potential gains has the greed emotion running rampant through many posters veins here.
It can lead to others being seduced it to getting in deeper than they might otherwise have done.
Ok, the options are... x , y, z and Just filter me out?
Done, room 101 it is! Byyyyee!
Wyndrum the choice is yours, it is your money, if you still believe in the company and the direction it is going then hold but it sounds like you are starting to see many negatives that is swaying you towards believing that the company has not delivered on your expected timelines.
Just for clarity I dont see a company ploughing ahead like avacta with distribution deals, key employee positions being created if this was not going to happen. I am fully aware of the risks and have had the unfortunate experience of being caught out before (FRR, URU) but I believed in my investment, I was new to AIM at this point but believed in the fundamentals of those investments and was too green to spot red flags.
If the test does not hit expected highs then so be it, we then have a choice to make, wait for the cancer play to recoup losses or cut and run. I personally am very happy to wait and watch this play out over time, COVID is with us for a very long time unfortunately and we have time to perfect out test to be the best in class.
Thanks Ophidian. I can see from Prof Richard Body’s Twitter feed that the first patients were recruited into the FALCON arm of CONDOR back on 29th June. Hopefully clinical validation has been progressing since shortly afterwards..... although I suppose we can’t assume that the Avacta BAMS would have been first in the queue. As for LFT, if this is being validated in the US as some posters suspect, then there’d certainly be no shortage of people to test over there.
this'll be interesting....
Which competitors are you worried about?
So Foxo my options are according to you:
..., now the choice is yours sit tight and continue to believe in the product regardless of what others are doing or sell up and put us out of the misery of your ramblings.
So keep my head in the sand and ignore what other companies are doing or sell up.
Thanks....
This is an investment board. Not a cheer leading campaign for the mindless.
As you say none of us have crystal balls and on that basis my view is as pertinent as anyone else's. The difference is you don't agree with it nor want to hear it. Which is perfectly fine as your right. Just filter me out
Thank you sir
great post Foxo
Orphidion I don't understand quite what time I am running out of and I care less about what "credibility" you or others have in me. I thought we had joined Condor a little while ago as opposed to yesterday so another 10 days (working days) is at least 2-3 weeks from when it started?
I don't mind this back and forth as you can tell however, there are many mindless optimistic posts on here that are only speculation portrayed as fact. Just look at GKB's recent post where he says he expects an RNS tomorrow or Thursday. Based on what? you just said between 5-10 days. And again, based on what?
I'm glad everyone here seems so relaxed. I presume that a potential 20-50% fall on the SP causes no pain to you and you can wait for a couple of years for it to go up again. That's fine but this SP is predicated on AVCT being a major supplier to covid testing. Others with similar saliva, quick result, testing are in the market too. Its not a done deal. That was my point and I think, though it seems a long time ago now, that I attempted to explain that the SP was falling due to some wanting to de-risk on this stock and it was not due to a posters view that it was just market manipulation.
Wyndrum, your moaning is starting to get on my nerves, noone on here has a crystal ball, the fact the CEO stated soon is down to interpretation, soon within how long these things normally take (1-2 years) could mean a couple of months. Lets face it they have done extremely well so far with progress on many fronts and have kept us PI's well informed along the way, Avacta cannot worry about other tests on the market and simply have to engineer there test to be the best it can be.
This will take time as there are many components to it, now the choice is yours sit tight and continue to believe in the product regardless of what others are doing or sell up and put us out of the misery of your ramblings.
Every test that has been released thus far is not a scratch on the potential test Avacta can offer, so lets wait for the news to drop. Timster made a very good point this morning with regards Sona and 7 weeks to refine their test, if you look at their share price through this time it went from 3.49 to 2.69 and a few other peaks and troughs before blast off.
Nobody is holding a short to your head are they?.........Sell your shares and move on,simples...;-)
GBK, fair enough, so if we don't here anything this week, what then?
@Wyndrum you said " My point is and I am sorry I did not make myself clear is that we are I think, clearly weeks away from hearing anything.". I think this is wrong.
Yesterday there were 938 new Coronavirus cases established by lab testing. Based on average numbers to date that probably means 47 hospitalisations. Assuming only 50% of those are into CONDOR associated hospitals then that is (lets be generous and round down) about 20 patients entering the Clinical Validation data set. At that rate it would be significantly less than two weeks to complete a full clinical validation of the LFD in the UK alone and I'm pretty sure it is already started anyway. So to say weeks away is clearly bonkers.
My guess BAMS news within 5 days and LFD within 10. Fast track review now seems given in the context of the other tests entering the playing field yesterday. Play the last few days of your fear card because you my friend are running out of time almost as fast as you ran out of credibility.
Ophidian
PL, what way will it go when we get an update. Hmm....
Depends when we get the update, depends on what the update says.
I have no problem waiting for this stock to perform but it has been re-rated from a 50 per share to what it is now based on a time dependent solution to covid 19
GKB, when did that RNS come out that said shortly? (Tell me it wasn't weeks ago)
Brilliant! everytime someone voices an opinion that is not assuming the SP will go up must for some reason not own the stock!
Its pathetic. You criticise my "guesswork" and then guess I am not a share holder when it fact it my largest holding!
Cast your mind back to 2 weekends ago and the reaction over the "tweet" on Friday. My god was this board alive, and what happened? Who posted the tweet by the way?
gkb47, bear in mind we’ve no idea what that actually means... hopefully two shakes of a lamb’s tail
You need some Imodium. It’s quite possible we could miss out altogether. Really?
Yes, it can also go up as it did last week. Or sideways. By my count there are 3 options. What direction do you think it’ll go when we get an update?
PL, I said to the tune of.. not a word for word statement. My point is and I am sorry I did not make myself clear is that we are I think, clearly weeks away from hearing anything. And it has changed, because other tests are coming to market and being awarded contracts. Its not a static market and it is quite possible we could miss out altogether, which is, fine risk reward and all that, but AVCT and many posters continually infer that there will be announcements soon or shortly.
I don't see under my logic where the SP can go but down on weeks of no news. Do you?
Great post as a lot have got too deep in this now that there's no way put of this
No, what you said was this:
If we were close (and I mean this week), then Boris could have made a holding statement to the tune of: "new saliva tests with great accuracy and results in 10 minutes are due very soon "
And yes, it’s utter sh.t.
You’re quite right though, this week is national misery week when the world is ending every day without an update, whereas last week was national optimism week when the share price was rising in anticipation. The reality is that nowt’s changed, the price is fluctuating. Hundreds of millions of tests are needed per month, if the new competition is a 90 swab test then I think we’ll be ok. In fact, if a 10 min dribble stick turned up tomorrow we’d still be ok, we’ll never be able to meet demand. ‘Every day makes a difference’ is overly dramatic when every day the number of new cases is increasing, the market is clearly not eroding.
Awacta is a tricky word to right with smoke canisters ;- h
You think that's a sh*t post!" Jeeze, what about all the blue days , take off, boom , don't miss out crud that is reeled out several times a day week in week out relentlessly.
All I'm saying now other tests are being chosen and there is diddly squat coming from AVCT, that we are likely to be weeks away from hearing anything and everyday brings in new competition and erodes the market for our product. As that market is eroded so are the potential profits, which in turn affect the valuation of AVCT. We are not in a vacuum, this is a time critical product and I think the timescales have either slipped or AL needs to have a better understanding of the English language when using terms like "Shortly" when every day makes a difference.