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Basing a valuation on the share price here is pointless it’s not a revenue generating business. What it is , an explorer that own assets in metals that will be in high demand due to the move to EV and infrastructure spending.
If you think AA will offer a small increase they know they will be rebuffed and would have done it already they could have offered 10p a long time ago and swallow it up. I think it’s not easy like that and they need to value what they potentially see, also agree 6 months was too generous. Should have kept to 3 months. We then talk to other majors or know we go it alone.
I assume with the ceo links to AA and their recent results they are the perfect partners they now need to Make an offer that is accretive or go elsewhere
JFrake
' If a deal isn’t done with AA it’s most likely due to our asset not being worth having. I imagine we will make a deal though :). GLA'
Couldn't disagree more. aA have done technical analysis on the asset and due diligence and subsequently decided to take their option to extend their exclusivity to discuss a commercial transaction. They have shown they want the asset.
If a deal isn't done now imo it's because Nick decided the offer was too low. We have other majors from around the globe interested or can go alone with the shirt route to production with low capex and asset backed debt. We have cash to see us through couple years exploration.
Just need patience and let what will be, be imo. Sit on our hands and let it play out.
Atb, gla
AA would not have under commercial discussions from 12th January 2021 if it was not worth having!!!
Being that NVS and AA have been well connected in the past, and that AA aren’t short of funds, the idea of an “unfair” offer is unlikely. If a deal isn’t done with AA it’s most likely due to our asset not being worth having. I imagine we will make a deal though :). GLA
I personally don't think it was a huge mistake as such, I agree it is frustrating that we have not had an offer or anything as of yet but if anything I think it strengthens our hand and not theirs in the end.
1. it has put us on the map with other potential suitors and the longer that goes on the better for us as AA will know other people are sniffing around (NVS made sure he has said this a few times), if there was nothing there they wouldn't still be here so that tells other potential suitors we have something special.
2. It gives AA the time to actually work things out in terms of what is on the lease future potential, potential that I think is only going to get bigger the more they explore. The fact they have locked it in for 6 months says they are keen and dont want any hiccups and to rush in, the 6 months would also have been agreed based on certain conversations with Arcs BOD and I am sure they made their points clear and didn't sign it thinking they would mess about.
3. This is now nearer 7p, when they said back in Jan (13th) about negotiations it was in 4-5p range. The more time we have the higher our SP goes. they could have offered 20p back then (4-5x SP) and I would have been fairly happy to be honest, whereas now I feel much more confident it will at least start with a 3 at the start for any takeover offer.
4. I honestly like the BOD, if they don't like the offer they will go to market which also tells the market we are happy to walk away from offers so if anything in the long run (if AA don't come through with anything acceptable) it shows we wont bend over for any low balls and sets the precedent for any future negotiations. NVS did stress recently that they are in daily contact with AA and that they are very happy with them currently so at the minute it looks the right decision.
I am the same as you in terms of what I want the end game to be, I wish we had of had this wrapped up by now and I am not even one of the LTHs (only been in since around September) but I do think AA will come out with something acceptable making all this lock in period worth it for us all.
Fingers crossed!!
ATB
A lot of thinking in that post Tom,perhaps leave it to NvS, well that's what I think :-))
#ARCM "Any deal that we do will have to generate significant value from where we sit today. We are expecting, & I fully expect to maximise value for our shareholders going forward." Chairman Nick von Schirnding
Full webcast??https://t.co/Qk5ax6S8xr
#copper #mining https://t.co/KqQyBUhMTl
I think it was a big mistake to have locked in for six months AAL think they have sort of leverage over us.We could have been in a bidding war by now
Totally agree with your comment small holding. Nick is doing everything he can to boost the profile and the sp. However I think he will bat off anything low ball hence his comments of going it alone and outside Chinese interest. The fact Nick has skin in the game as well as his many years of experience l don't think AA will get the better of him.
My take on the Arc Twitter feed.
Nick and Remy would like a higher share price to strengthen their negotiating position with Anglo. They can't talk about the EA or talk to other suitors but they can regurgitate positive statements taken from the CC. There may be a bit of keeping existing investors happy but we have heard it already, I think the main intention is to try to raise their profile and talk the share price up.
Everything looks good here and even the copper price is flying to strengthen their investment case but at the end of the day they can't make people buy the shares.
In my opinion it is almost the dream ticket apart from the current share price, which they would like to be higher.
As I have said many times the current share price will be relevant when a JV calculation is done. They don't just pluck a valuation from thin air, whatever Anglo invest under a JV the calculation will be based on the share price at that time.
The higher the share price is, the more Anglo have to pay or the lower the percentage they receive.
A quote tweeted by Nick
""Many of you asked what will the deal look like obviously I am not going to be drawn into any such detail but suffice to say is that any deal that we do will have to generate significant value from where we sit today"
And where do we sit today? - the current share price/market cap.
I think sometime in March 2021 but maybe early to mid April 2021 at the latest as new drilling season starts in april 2021.
12th Jan 2021 (180 days) - 11th July 2021.
Try @arcminerals using google and this gets you to the twitter feed.
I am almost certain we will hear something in March/April. My money is on March because they will want to get cracking with the drill programme this year. I think it will be a JV though, but I'm happy with that. The sp will rocket with AA involvement.
Was the allotted time during by end of Q2?
We should be getting an offer before the Allotted time , won’t take them that long have had 2 months already to build in different models based on last year due diligence. They have reported to the market on last year performance now they can get on with this. Tbh I am surprised they are waiting that long as they are not the only suitors interested and they have the ability to swallow Arcm if they wanted to.
People talk about a Jv I don’t mind I want maximum return if it is a buy out and we get shares as part of the consideration which actually can be done and not impacting Anglo at all we could see real value.
What I don’t understand how much have we explored and how much copper we have assessed. Are Anglo still taking. Punt ? As I thought all the details from last year they are evaluating how much copper we have and it appears a lot but we really are sitting on a lot more which needs further digging.
Basically AA needs to give us an offer we can’t refuse or we go elsewhere or do it by ourselves . I really think these guys are smart to get agreement to fund a small mine with debt, which is cheap at the moment compared to historics.
Who thinks an offer will land in March,/April?
https://www.first-quantum.com/English/our-operations/operating-mines/sentinel/reserves-and-resources/default.aspx
In keeping with tone of the tweet I draw attention to cut-off grades at Sentinel 40 km to the SSE. They are by no means exceptional. Relatively poor but their value is in the AISC open-pit operations. It is certainly my direction of thought for the ARCM targets. Should values exceed 0.47% Cu I reckon we are in business for open-pit horizon.
Can ARCM buck the market squeeze today?
Who actually runs the Arc Twitter page? does anyone know?
@marco sorry link does not work for those without telegram like me
arcm tweet today. Makes me think we are not too far off a deal now!!
https://t.me/c/1151870246/4951