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trully believe on the Geothermal projects we will acquire along should take us back to 5p+ with sfb producing now at peak prices double digits won’t be far off in 2 years imho.
IMO Angus have no intention of having the hedge for the full 3 years at 70% of income. You keep forgetting as the loan and interest reduces so does the hedged gas produced, this intern enables more gas production at market prices causing a snowball effect.
Looking good here the increase in gas prices couldn’t have come at a better time
Same very excited for us to produce huge amounts of gas at our highest level in over a decade. Master stroke by Lucan and also good stroke of luck. Expecting us to break 1p soon.
We need to see twitter photos showing progress on site and the promised updates about Lidsey pronto!
I am going to predict 2p by end of the year......then we will progress to 6p+ by 2022 imho........gla
current has price is 187.....the price for Q2 2022 is 190 even higher than it is now......Angus will be producing over £3m therms per month....this is over £5m a month..........there is no downside from this all gas coming in will be at the peak time.........£5m a month is huge to the company and the whole £12m borrowed will be paid off in less than 3 months.......of course the multiple i.d naysayers who were previously banned and now using different ids will say otherwise ;)........gla
Angus need to produce as much gas as possible to wipe out the loan before June and get the full market price. If it's possible the hedge will have reduced or disappeared and Angus will continue to get the full price after June. Obviously there will be fees and early payment charges etc, but i think it would be in every shareholders interest to dump the loan ASAP!
5 to 8 months? Really not.
Hedge starts July 2022... best guess estimate for first gas is now Apr IMO, so maybe, just maybe 3 months. And also don't forget that first gas doesn't mean the start of consistent monthly production.
However, if ANGS goes for sidetrack drilling up front (as I ever more strongly suspect it knows it simply has to), add another 16 weeks to the timing of first gas.
No brainer at these levels.........we will have 5-8 months of making money at the highest gas prices in the last 13 years........If i recall correctly it was 2008 when gas prices were this high and Angus sorted this all out before the gas price rises.......superb timing..........dyor but a VERy strong buy from me
Crow, yes it does thanks.
Very interesting........will be adding significantly to my holding today.........expecting SFB to start before 2022......gla
Tavernham,
Not sure if this IQ answers your question
Q: Regarding the reduction from a 10-inch pipe in your presentation to a 4-inch pipe in the planning documents being considered by LCC planning: Can you confirm that the 4-inch pipe is capable of delivering the 10 MMSCFD to the national grid at a maximum delivery pressure into Grid of 70 bar? Asked on 20 July 2020
A: Yes. The principal constraints on pipeline internal diameter are the maximum designed operating pressure (which in this case is over twice the maximum anticipated delivery pressure of between 45 and 70 bar) and the velocity of flow of this volume of gas. Very high velocities result in higher temperatures and erosional issues and are generally avoided for that reason. The resulting velocity increase at the narrower internal diameter of 4 inch vs 10 inch is still comfortably within normal ranges for the transmission of grid specification gas in the UK.
When doing the calcs on potential gas throughput have people checked the limitations of the pipework and all the installed kit.As I recall the main feed was only designed as a tiny 50mm diameter pipe and that alone would restrict its capacity.
Peter
You’re not being rude but somewhat naïve. Of course what you say makes sense at first glance. What you say is irrelevant anyway as they are going are going to miss this winter anyway. But If you have actually read the RNS’S and interviews given, understand what has been submitted and accepted by the OGA in the FDP, Understand what is actually likely to be produced and when, the drop of rate, water cut, and life expectancy of the 2 previously producing wells, weather the gas produced will actually be able to pay the loan at the reduced rate at the time when prices drop as they will, well that should be enough to think about.
But then you need to remember the partner SEL and the £12 million lender who are hedging and would lose a fortune at the reduced rates,. I highly doubt they will be happy to postpone because it suits Angus? Why would they possibly agree to that?
I have run a business for more than 30 years by the way..... Hope that helps!
Right, let's look at the maths previously quoted above.
Let's say Poundland can be coaxed into delivering 5mmscfd (that's a hell of a presumption, because that's what the CPA that ANG uses estimates. The last available OGA figures when Poundland was last producing show average productions figures 50% lower than that). Anyhow...
5 mmscfsd is indeed 50,000 therms.
Now ANGS is committed to selling c. 70% of its production at 43p per therm from start of hedge for three years,
That leaves it 15,000 therms per day to sell on the open market (presuming it can generate 5 mmscfd).
Therefore every 1p over and above 43p would therefore be worth an additional £150 per day to ANGS - or about £55k per annum (presuming 24/7/365 production) per additional therm penny.
Needless to say, if ANGS can get to meaningful production of gas volumes before the hedge kicks in, that would be majorly beneficial for a brief period. However, I would not put it past George to look to drill the sidetrack as soon as possible - I think the company already knows that a successful sidetrack is needed to get it anywhere near the volumes it has been estimating. Or as others have said, it'd make no sense to even consider it.
Sans sidetrack? I'd estimate first gas by start Q2 at the earliest. With sidetrack? The hedge will arrive at the same time as first gas.
AIMO.
I have a feeling we could do a sound energy type of hike here around Jan 2022. Hold for gold as they say.
Some 190ps at the close. Close to a 15% rise on the Jan 22 contract.
https://www.theice.com/products/910/UK-Natural-Gas-Futures/data?marketId=5188705
WG818 - I do not mean to be rude but it is clear from your post that you have no experience running a business as there is no way than anyone in any industry would do as you suggest. Angus are not going to stop production when gas prices are at their highest in order to drill a sidetrack that will mean that they come back online in summer when prices are much lower. By doing this they will lose money twice.
The obvious business decision is simply to produce from the existing gas while prices are high and then drill the sidetrack after the prices drop down again in summer. Basically the company will make as much money as they can while prices are high and worry about the sidetrack afterwards. Only an idiot would do otherwise.
Peter is that £15m a year??!!! Huge revenue
Peter. They have a slight issue of drilling a 16 week sidetrack in March going by company guidance. They cannot produce any gas while it’s happening.
The companies own in house timeline gives a two month commissioning and certification so don’t hold your breath for any gas before the hedge kicks in.
Blimey even cudd seems to have accepted they can only get 4/5mmscf now!!
As I said below - with gas prices as they are then as long as Angus can start production in mid February (as per the 11th August RNS) then they can make £15 million in revenues before the hedge even comes into play. This will pay off all of the debt less than 5 months after commencing production.
Saltfleetby is a goldmine.
Silent lurker here.. what will Angus be worth with the current huge surge in oil prices?.. any help much appreciated cheers
SFB production starting in a month or two? - No.
First we need the EA permit, meeting in October? Then we need to receive the gas processing equipment and install it and commission it.
Last RNS said first gas in Feb 2022 but this now looks like is subject to EA approval ON TIME in October, IMO. Installation should start in October for gas in Feb (and this is cutting it thin).