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Volume vs price
Let me know if I've got this completely wrong
We have committed to deliver in a set volume of gas and a good guess at a not set price future price
So if price is 3 times the predicted price then would revenues not be 3 times higher predicted revenues and should help if we do not meet volumes of gas as to pay any penalties
Mirasol, I'm sure the gas design team know what's best, either ready to switch on or dismantle the plant again. P.S. where is the mysterious up to date drone footage.
"you have no business acumen with that reply."
Business acumen is not paying for kit until you are certain you'll need it BV
HITS, time and expense to connect another compressor which is paid for, so you would opt for stopping production, and retest the system at far more expense. The idea of time management is to do the job once instead of several times, you have no business acumen with that reply.
That's the one.
u mean this plan - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XJYmyYzuTa8
It appears to me as though the existing wells won't produce massively above the 1.5m therms long spoken about because otherwise, why would they have booked the sidetrack to be drilled so soon?
Less than a month until that is drilled now, if it goes to plan.
BV, if I expected a max monthly production level of 1.5 million therms, then no, I would not bother going to the expense and time of putting in a second gas compression engine at this moment, because there'd be no point to putting a dent in cash at this time.
If however, I expected a pressure buiild-up over the last 4+ years to mean that the two producing wells would deliver meaningfully more than 1.5 million therms a month, then with the current spot price of gas, I absolutely would be putting in the second gas compression engine right now.
From drone site pix and ANGS RNSes (the latter being as is typical rather woolly), it looks like ANGS has gone down route 1 of the above.
HITS, as you say Angus don't need the 2nd compressor yet. Now if you was running the company would you have both compressors connected and ready to switch on if the gas exceeds expectations before the sidetrack.
The company has stated that it hopes for 1.5 million therms a month from the two existing producing wells. With just the one gas compression engine on site. that's the maximum production capacity of the field anyway with current equipment (a second gas compression engine has apparently been ordered by ANGS, but isn't currently on site - and according to ANGS-issued information, probably won't be unless and until the as yet to be attempted sidetrack proves successful.
If achieved, 1.5 million therms a month of production would be fine for the months of Jul, Aug & Sep, because it exceeds the monthly quantities hedged, so ANGS could sell any excess gas at spot market pricing.
However from Oct 22 and for the next nine months, the monthly hedged quantity rises to 1.75 million therms - so by that point, ANGS will definitely need that second gas compression engine in place and initially hoped-for production levels to have increased, whether by successful sidetrack or pressure build-up or both.
No
Has there been any indication from the company stating that they expect production levels greater than 1.125 million therms in July and thereafter per month or we all waiting on the next RNA?
Typo... the amount hedged by ANGS in July is 1.125 million therms.
The calculation showing that Mercuria is owed - come what may - just over £1.4 million by ANGS in July remains true and accurate.
The July spot price for gas right now is 166p per therm.
The amount of gas hedged by ANGS in July is 1.235 million therms.
The fixed price for the July hedged volumes is 41.4p per therm.
Therefore Mercuria (the party on the other side of the hedge) is contractually owed 1,125,000 x (166-41.4) = just over £1.4 million by ANGS within the month of July - completely and utterly regardless of whether loads of gas or no gas at all gets produced and sold by ANGS within July.
ANGS had better get producing - we're now down to the long-expected sharp end.
103.47 million cu ft is the hedged amount for July 2022 = 3.34 mmscf per day
that's 1,125 mm therms approx for July - spot is running around £ 2- £ 3 per therm
Thank you
Sure.
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
The table on page 49 of that PDF shows the fixed volumes of gas hedged for each month of the three year hedge and the fixed monthly pricing for each of those monthly volumes.
revised CPR of 26/10/21, page 49:
https://www.angusenergy.co.uk/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/Angus-Energy-Saltfleetby-Reserves-Valuation-Report.pdf
Can somebody point me in the right direction regarding the hedge details please?