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Dunnie, I have been following your posts for some time and appreciate the effort and insight they provide. In terms of value for AML there are a few stress tests that can be applied to get orientation. The two formal methods of valuation for any business are ‘the going concern’ and breakup’. The share price as it is linked to enterprise value is usually a multiple of EBITDA give or take market sentiment. Valuing intangibles on the balance sheet is very difficult as this is often a manipulation of the rules framed by strategy. AML will want to retain the max value of intangibles to bolster the BS, but this would not necessarily be realisable under the breakup valuation. An earlier poster also referred to the brand value, but of course this is not on the BS at all. Looking at the numbers based on the current shares in issue an sp of over £0.54 is key as this will give a formal market cap of £1bn. This is a good number to build on for investors, both debt and equity. Based on the enterprise value represented by the BS an sp of over £0.91 is important as this will represent a share price that is on par with the enterprise value. This would ward off a hostile takeover as it would far exceed the breakup value. I would muse that the current share price is probably a fair reflection of the risk in the business and it is fair to say that as the liquidity horizon is pushed back, then the share price should improve. If todays bond issue is successful, I would expect a rise in the sp, but always have in mind that the market generally is in reverse at the moment so it might take a while for a step advance in the sp. No need to be despondent if there is not an immediate jump in the sp.
Rob, Motley Fool did a good piece on AM, instead of the mkt cap they looked at the ‘Enterprise Value’, basically throwing everything in stock, value of factories, land owned, debt and cash in hand.
They valued the co at 1.66bn, that was before the latest fundraising and the sale of the bonds, so that should have took it up to between 2-2.5bn.
That against a mkt cap of 1bn.
It’s a bargain.
3300, I think that is the date when the UK is out of the EU. I mean the date for a deal or no deal. It was set to 15th of Oct. but it was extended.
Does anyone know when the Brexit trade talk deadline is?
Grrr typos try again..
New Factory
New SUV (DBX with solid order book)
New Investment from Lawrence Stroll (skin in the game)
New CEO from AMG (Tobias Mores)
Two upcoming Bonds 007 and £££
Beautiful car portfolio.
25 x New DB5 at 3.3 million each
New tech deal with merc
F1 Racing Point to become Aston Martin
What more do you want? :-)
New Factory
New SUV (DBX with solid order book)
New Investment from Larance Stroll (skin in the game)
New CEO from AMG (Tobis Mores)
Two upcoming Bonds 007 and £££
Beautiful car portfolio.
25 x New DB5 at 3.3 million each
New tech deal with merc
F1 Racing Point to become Aston Martin
What more do you want? :-)
Crank, I can't help thinking that if they don't sell as expected (unlikely) that Stroll will have some of his Billionaire mates lined up ready to step in at 9% anyway so I'm sure it will be fine!
If he doesn't then he risks his own investment in a big way which I can't see happening... ;-)
Crank the bonds will sell as expected for sure, trust me.
3300, God forbid the thought would have never crossed my mind.
Take care and be safe.
Don't forget the 1,000,000 plus classic cars in enthusiasts' garages, currently not affected by congestion charges if 40 years old. Wonder when that will change?
Hey guys,
Imaging 10 yrs later, petrol car is going to less and less. 95% are electric car, the rest 5% are petrol car and all will be super sport car. also petrol only for super rich people.
A couple of recent articles... Apologies if I've missed them being posted already!
https://www.ifre.com/story/2595293/aston-martin-cs1vvqpsyv
https://www.bloombergquint.com/gadfly/aston-martin-has-a-license-to-burn-shareholder-cash
There is no doubt that the Junk Bond sales will go according to plan. I have a strong feeling that any shortcoming is to be filled with Stroll's friendly consortium and he will kill two birds with one stone. 55 today and 58 Monday.
robglfc,
Just for interest what are you/ others valueing the brand at here. The balance sheet shows £1.18b for intangibles so thats a good place to start. ( seems a little on the low side to me if you factor in all the staff designers, factories, test facilities already set up.
If you go back to the early 2000s one of the criticisms levelled at AML was that all their cars looked the same. From the front, DB9, Vantage, DBS, Vanquish. A lot of people couldn't tell them apart. I still love the original DB9 and Vantage, but I'm a dinosaur and still massively enjoy the original Mini Cooper S. Oh, and I also prefer analogue instruments, something endlessly classy about them.
Latterly, for the last decade, people have been changing to SUVs. They're easier to get into and afford a better view. How many people drive these on their door handles- not many. The start up costs for AML to enter this market were massive. Rolls Royce and Bentley and Lamborghini did it because they had very rich parents. AML did it on their own which pretty well bankrupted them, but now they have the prettiest (subjective) of high end SUVs. RR and Bentley sell masses of their ugly incarnations, but it's the badge that most people are buying. AML have an equally prestigious badge plus a great looker. Derivatives to follow will only expand the appeal.
Which takes us to their GT/Sports cars and opinions will be divided. Valkyrie and Valhallah are Adrian Newey designs and Vanquish will he an AML in house design, but somewhat more affordable. DB11 is lovely, a little fussy in places whilst the DBS sits there wanting to eat you and that's before it's even moved. I'm not a fan of massive grilles but DBS has to breathe a heck of a lot of fresh air so hands were somewhat tied during the design execution. That doesn't apply to Audis and BMW 4 series. Their grilles have just become hideous and it's not just me saying it. My brother's an Audi convert and he says the same. The Aston Speedster was in house and I'd have one of those in a flash, but I don't have any wealthy relatives about to pop off.
Which brings us to the Vantage. I never liked the front end - it reminded me of a bottom feeding fish. I remember the criticism when I made these comments on this site over 6 months ago and was frequently called some pretty awful names. But they've addressed it and now you can have a more contemporary grille. Other than that, the only criticisms are interior and instrument related and hopefully and it looks to be the case, the new agreement will allow Aston to use current generation Mercedes tech. However, if I was ordering one of these models I'd still specify many of the instruments to be analogue. AML probably wouldn't let me.
AML have an exciting product range and big plans. I wouldn't be invested in them if I didn't think they could be turned around. In the past and not so distant past, their product range was limited and they weren't appealing to new buyers. The launch of the DBX and two hypercars shows they can bring the products to the marketplace where the growing demand is and also for the super wealthy. Their styling won't always please everyone but that's why we have choices.
:'( feeling that love. nothing a windy road cant fix :D
3300 - There was a time in my life that if I was cut into two halved the name Aston Martin would have been written on my insides. I have had a long history with the brand and I have been involved with the company directly. I would like to see the company succeed and move away from the financial uncertainty that has dogged the company throughout it's history. The only way a company can succeed is to be honest with it's self. I think Betz took the company down a wrong path and now the company has to carve put a new future and purpose. I think that by getting the designs and price points right, for both young entry level buyers as well as older die hard Aston customers, is vital. Stroll , I understand, is looking to mid engined cars and so the design and theme has to be right.
they're the WORST type! ;)
XLNC - I agree absolutely, that is what different models and price points are for with a common mindset within the design. I think the principle of the Vantage is right (Wrong name though). Again the designer ran out of ideal with the front and side of the front wing. The Bond edition addresses the front and it is much better.
Very good point on second hand never thought of it like that. Only thing for me about the Vanquish (and most AMs) is the steering wheel, looks like something out of the 80's!
Buying second-hand is vital to the success of the company. If the cars are sought after, this keeps the residuals up and the devaluation down. This results in a stronger demand for new cars and supports the price. A few months ago they were trying to sell me a DBS Volante saying the average price of a well optioned car was north of £300k, but in reality they were taking just over £200k. This in turn is reflected in the soft second hand prices which makes people think twice about buying them. In terms of the design aspect of the DBS, they had a second crack at it with the limited edition Bond OHMSS car and the front end was much improved. It is difficult to understand why they didn't focus their minds and sort the front of the car in the first place.
Need to keep in mind that Aston is trying to appeal to a younger audience too, this was confirmed by the guy running things in Asia. I think it’s near impossible to design a sports car that will appeal to someone in their 30’s and someone in their 60’s..
DB nooo there is a 3rd type... those who buy bikes ;)
mansion. does this sound familiar?
"Hi Guys
Hearing very strong feedback from within Aston Martin, I understand they are very pleased with their finances and their order book!
It would pay you all to disregard any hearing of a negative outlook from anyone on the part of Aston Martin.
This is a great opportunity for a hold...."
picked up more of these at 52 dead today.
i am now holding enough that I'm considering a takeover bid! Well not quite but waaaaayyyyy more than is sensible.
my avg is now 50 pretty much dead on ...