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DBX orders sitting c.2,200
Given their target was 1,400 by mid Feb, they're way ahead of expectations.....possibly double their plan by mid Feb. Nothing about this being reported, but looks like they actually have a winner on their hands.
When you read between the lines it certainly looks like Stroll has the most to gain from a tie up with Aston Martin.
It would be nice to have some more news on the matter and also on DBX order numbers which I would imagine are still increasing as more positive reviews come out.
Interesting stuff aej22.
Not such a technical view, but The SP seems to be driven by 'news' at present. Stroll interested, rise. Negative trading statement, fall. Geely interested, rise. Geely less interested, fall. Unfortunately, as AM rolled in the good news about DBX orders within its negative trading statement, there is no more potential positive news to come until a final solution is found. Without any, it may continue to slide gradually. I believe that a Stroll deal is imminent though - the next issue will be its construct and will it dilute the price of existing shares? Given the low SP, I wouldn't be at all surprise if a deal is tabled by Stroll/existing main investors to take AM private again, this being at a small premium of c.500 a share. Think that's the most positive outcome at present, because it's an emotive share and there ain't any more positive news on the horizon. But I could be completely wrong...….again.
My musings on the technical side of things.... The previous "cup and handle" breakout was stopped at 490 resistance and retraced to 430s / 440s. I too was hoping that 430s/440s area would hold, but on the technical side there appears to be an early downside breakout of a descending triangle (hourly chart):
https://pbs.twimg.com/media/EO9VBTIX4AEQcgP?format=jpg&name=medium
If this is confirmed, to my mind suggests further retrace, perhaps back to support at 400s/390s?
Any comments welcomed!
cheers jimjam, very kind, and hope the best for your investment too ;-)
istock,
Have a great holiday, and hope you continue to get your investments spot on.
jimjam, I have already call out that the sp will be floating around at 440(yes bang on as always), again not expecting anything until Feb... slow... need a holiday now... gl
but I do have to give you credit for below 300 as that truly made me laugh ;-)
This bb is struggling in the same way as AML itself, lacking energy and creativity, come on lets have some thoughts. Blame it all on Trump or Greta or perhaps Boris. Buy at 300 or below IMO.
have to say 90 days is loooong ;-) gl
Ross, 'still believe it will go below 400 in the next 90 days probably because of additional funding, which the market will view as costly but then the share will have the capacity to grow beyond 700. The funding will enable the company to deliver the cars, in a timely manner. Without funding the problem of working capital could prove 'almost terminal' IMHO.
Thanks guys, interesting opinions. I probably sit somewhere in between. I think that concrete news of a deal will initially rally the SP slightly, then it'll fall away. Once the dust settles, it'll bounce back, purely on the basis that AML will actually be viable again. Think the lows will be .c400, the eventual highs .c600 - what is very unclear though is the timescale we're dealing with....
jimjam, is not so bad, imho, there is already an amount of money that circulates in the press £200m from Lawrence Stroll and based on the DBX bookings they will be able to draw some money, in the RNS is stated that they are actively talking with investors and that on the 27th February there is an update, my two cents is that the SP doesn't have any reason to fall below the strong ~380p support.
On the same note, Geely owns about 10% of Daimler, Aston Martin buys all its engines from AMG, therefore there will be some sort of support for the company, plus AML is owned by hedge fund/investment group weasels, they are not willing to let this one fade in the dust.. GL
Ross it seems to me that unless a cheap loan of £500m comes about out of the blue at a rate of less than 6% ( pigs might fly) then additional funds will come at a cost to the sp driving it much lower, thus representing a nice buy at 350 or lower IMO
That's my main concern and a distinct possibility. Would be keen to hear any other thoughts on this...
Would like to think that a financially stronger AML would see the SP kick back up, but from what base point and over what time scale?
Allowing for the need for working capital I wonder whether anyone shares my opinion that the share price might reduce to 350 considering that a rights issue might be the outcome, any thoughts???
Patience, without news about the funding it will retest 400p, IMHO.
Remember they announced they need £500M in order to stay afloat. GL
Bouncing back when under 440, it's time to buy at that level.....
could be time to pull the trigger
Playing well so far, loading the guns... no US session today as markets are closed due to MLK. GL
Fingers crossed there are more news to support the funding this week! The trading update on the 7th February will probably take the SP back in in the 6£ mark! Looking to get back around 4£ mark next week.. assuming that the horizontal support will not be broken! GLA
Very true. Needs more than just 'tide them over' money to DBX though, AML needs a good shake up and a reality check. Wholesale model is fine when you're shifting volume cars, not when 50%+ of your retail sales are bespoke orders. Sitting wholesale stock is driving the added sales incentive costs they've suffered from. Needs cash and a big re-think, in my humble opinion.
Unless of course they had "edge" or whatever euphemism you want to call it.
I think that reading between the lines we will get some deal and I suspect that access to one deal even if its only half of the money would probably allow the company to open further credit lines for the rest.
Saw that trade just after it happened and thought it was a VERY brave punt - they'll be regretting that!!
More 'FUN' to come next week, I'm sure - have a great weekend.....
aston racing style ;-) there was a good 3 mins to trade in between... guess peeps didn't manage that well... saw a 600k trade at 490 just mins before that ... ouch...
gr8 wkend all & gl ;-)
The price is melting like butter left outside in the summer, I'm coming back at 400p!
istock these mf's are just shamelessly playing the SP!
GL