Speakers from Touchstone Exploration, Shanta Gold, Savannah Resources and Kavango Resources feature in our Natural Resources webinar on May 25th. Please register here.
London South East prides itself on its community spirit, and in order to keep the chat section problem free, we ask all members to follow these simple rules. In these rules, we refer to ourselves as "we", "us", "our". The user of the website is referred to as "you" and "your".
By posting on our share chat boards you are agreeing to the following:
The IP address of all posts is recorded to aid in enforcing these conditions. As a user you agree to any information you have entered being stored in a database. You agree that we have the right to remove, edit, move or close any topic or board at any time should we see fit. You agree that we have the right to remove any post without notice. You agree that we have the right to suspend your account without notice.
Please note some users may not behave properly and may post content that is misleading, untrue or offensive.
It is not possible for us to fully monitor all content all of the time but where we have actually received notice of any content that is potentially misleading, untrue, offensive, unlawful, infringes third party rights or is potentially in breach of these terms and conditions, then we will review such content, decide whether to remove it from this website and act accordingly.
Premium Members are members that have a premium subscription with London South East and have access to Premium Chat. You can subscribe here.
London South East does not endorse such members, and posts should not be construed as advice and represent the opinions of the authors, not those of London South East Ltd, or its affiliates.
Well, it should have read "good" - not to make your head too big. :-)
Nevertheless, I fully share your thought.
Really god post TDT - I second that.
"..more likely to get people to run a mile."
We probably should have.....years ago.
I am holding here, whilst may be not as far down as some others, still down enough to have this written off.
It might just come good one day....it really should.
However, with the current management I can not really see this -more than happy to be proven wrong.
12 years in AMC and not earning a bean is obviously a sore one, so I get it, you probably don't need me poking it by flagging up challenges that this project still faces. I don't mean to cause distress, I'm not trying to talk it down, if I was there would be endless posts about RY as he makes himself an easy target and plenty of stuff around RY's PFS which I have chosen not to air which if I did would be like rocket fuel on the fire, I'll keep these views to myself.
Look most of the items in my cons list can very easily move to the pros, RY may be effectively sidelined if AMC becomes a free carried junior partner all the way to production and issues with previous studies melt away when the TEO is published.
Yes I would regard my original investment in AMC as a mistake, the PEA was never going to fly, but I was a total greenhorn back then, but we don't stand still do we, are you the same investor as you was 12 years ago? I know I've learnt a shed load and understand very clearly why I went wrong with AMC (even though I actually made money). I think that's important, do you understand where you have gone wrong? 12 years is probably a failure you may need a 20 bagger just to cover off your opportunity cost.
I'll try and help you out on the hope side a little bit with some comments later.
But before that I'm happy to commit here and now to never mention again any shortcomings in RY's PFS and all the potential problems with the wholly OP TEO, readers can make up their own mind by now. I did think one of my recent posts about potentially mining at 1% was in fact extremely bullish, I'm sorry you didn't see it that way and I think your view about only negative posts is a little bit unfair.
Yes I'm on the sidelines right now so you would expect my overall assessment to be negative, or perhaps to describe it more fairly filled with uncertainties around project value, I'm just calling it as I see it and I do try to outline process as much as possible so readers can use to assist with their own research, so I'll make very clear no reader on here should accept anything I say at face value, in the same way we should be critical of what RY tells us, every failed mining project that got into production had a prior positive study right?
I've done ok financially in AMC, but that is nowhere near enough financial compensation for the time and effort expended, but for me that's not the whole story, Rick Rule says many times the best thing you can invest in is your education so in part that is what AMC is for me and part of why I continue to post, even though generally speaking I do think of it as a complete waste of time and it will stop at some point soon (you may be pleased to hear that).
Ok for some hope, the extension of my post about mining at 1% over a 90mt mine plan at $9/lb nickel gives I reckon an NPV of around $1.6b, obviously take that with a large pinch of salt, lots of moving parts. ATB.RL
It might do henners which is the reason I'm complaining about this consistent narrative he is pursuing with these posts saying the same thing over and over again.
While the value of an asset might be viewed differently by interested parties, I think it's a stretch to imagine that an offeror would not consider the existing mc of a company into their offer regardless of it's fair valuation......its peoples jobs to acquire as cheaply as possible.
Hence, an sp of 1.5p might temp an offer of say 8p but an sp of 4p might temp an offer of 14p...I'm just playing around with figures but you get my meaning and why there could be a big difference to the end game....if that was the way things where to go.
RL's posts are painting a constant negative view of the business which imo are designed
to encourage people to sell and discourage people to buy and we are told that we should ignore him at our pearl.......I mean, if we take notice of his posts then we are already up sh.t creek as it is......unless we sell that is:)
If RL never uttered another observation would it impact the end result?
I dont want a happy clappy board....in fact, far from it...you are welcome to look back my posts on amc and I will give you £20 if you can find where you could consider it happy flappy or even rampy.
You seem to be suggesting that pi's dont understand the commodity cycle or capex/opex, strip ratios etc etc and you do....and you should get credit for that.
I think your wrong on that and I think we all gamble on these shares whether that is commodity, costs going up or down, the extraction process, drilling success, logistics or that the bod behaving in the correct manner.
We get it but dont feel the need to discuss it post after post, year after year because it looks like subterfuge after a while.
All these posts by RL saying the same thing over and over again....seems to me like it would only encourage people to sell and certainly put people off buying.
So is RL doing the sellers a favour, or the people looking in a favour......or maybe he should do us a better favour and recommend other shares where he thinks there is much more potential and instead of ignoring him at our pearl....maybe we can have a much better outcome and rejoice in his knowledge.
Anybody who has actually been here for 12 years will know my view which has been consistent. Improved grades and an improved nickel price have always been the issues for me. Well grades aren't going to improve much on what we currently have so it’s all now down to the price of nickel and in my opinion that still has some way to go before Amur will be able to go it alone. But let’s face it Amur will never develop this mine themselves. The options are a JV or an outright sale. The JV option is unlikely in my opinion so it’s down to an outright sale. How do you get a decent price out of a potential buyer? You have to have an alternative, either another buyer or the option to go it alone. It’s a bit like Game Theory you have to be able to execute the bluff if your bluff is called.
Don't forget, the commodity sector is cyclical. When you invested 12 years ago (2009) the price of nickel was on a roller coaster ride. In that time it peaked at $28,000/tonne and then cratered at below $8,000/tonne. Has Amur been viable during that whole cycle? No. Did you sell at any point in that cycle? It seems not. You've held for better days. I held assuming that further drilling would produce the grades that would make Amur viable. Grades have improved but not to the extent hoped for. It’s now all down to the price of nickel. I'm still here because I believe that nickel will eventually hit a level that will make the "go it alone" option possible. That's the point when it might be possible to squeeze a reasonable price from a potential buyer.
You say "We have all made the gamble..." then go onto to state
".....what I don’t get is someone constantly posting ambiguous, detailed and awkward to follow fluff under a pretence that he is waiting for the right signals....."
That in many respect sums up the difference. You are gambling on something you don't fully understand. RL, on the other hand, isn't.
You just need to accept that some people have a much better understanding than you, are happy to post detailed research and are generous enough to freely give their time and research. Just because you wouldn’t give as freely says more about you than it does anything else. You can’t understand RL’s motivation because you don’t have the same generosity of spirit. You’re just two different types of people
Wanting a happy clappy board where only positives are allowed would devalue this forum to the extent that it would render it useless. I think RL’s contribution is invaluable and I don’t, as you’ve decided, think it negative. On the contrary it helps me to determine whether the rewards associated with investing more here are outweighed by the risks.
I spent a couple of hours having a look at RL's figures yesterday. I have my own figures so have an understanding of where RL is coming from.
The positive to take is that in year two, AFTER BANK STRESS TESTING , we are slightly cash negative. The Bank stress test RL has used was 30% from revenue. Not unreasonable. The other costs he has used are in the PFS or he has explained where he has obtained them from. Ie Processing cost has risen from $10 to $15. In terms of revenue he has used what he believes is the relevant cog. RL's figures are fairly clear you just need to spend time going through them. I am sure he would gladly explain any issues.
RL raised the issue of a second UG mine. Capex was say $328m. The issue I would have is that this would be after year 5 when the various taxes begin to kick in.
Tdt.....I bought into amc 12 years ago and did not consider the viability of the project then because we dont have access to that level of info but trusted the resource and a few others factors.
Did RL consider the viability of the project when he bought previously and did he get this wrong and that's why he sold?
If it's so touch and go about it being viable have you sold your shares also because if not....you are also ignoring at your pearl?
I get that people want to dig deep into the detail and capex, process, commodity prices, viability etc etc are all very important.
We have all made the gamble and can decide to hold or sell by ourselves but what I dont get is someone constantly posting ambiguous, detailed and awkward to follow fluff under a pretence that he is waiting for the right signals to buy back in, would seem to me that it's either lacking conviction or promoting another agenda.
Years and 100's of posts to end up in a position where RL is still not sure if it's a buy but still feels the need to say the same thing over and over again does not inspire me with much confidence....so I will ignore at my peril and keep hoping that they can make it.
Just like you......despite the deep mining.
"I have no interest in trying to address the issues that RL is raising....."
Fair enough. It’s difficult for some people to take in the detail and to assimilate what is, after all, a very complex and nuanced process. Seemingly minor issues can determine the difference between a project being viable or not. It’s that sort of detail that most people PIs fail to identify so when you have somebody that can it can be rather disconcerting.
The devil is in the detail. Ignore at your peril.
It's called dyslexia small mind
"tell me I am wrong" you're wrong, to put a post out without proof reading it and correcting your errors.
I don't really see where your seeing all this negatively from Red, personaly it's all in your mind
Read his reserch with a fair and open mind
Then try and see from Reds possible investment strategy, I think you will find he likes to be very sure and is probably very happy to pay at a perceived premium when he does invest, he's definitely been in hear before, and he was quite obviously smart and wise to off got out for abit tell me I am wrong
"Is it because you’re paid to talk this share price down?"
I really don't think Young needs any assistance in this department, he's doing a sterling job of it, all on his own.
I have no interest in trying to address the issues that RL is raising, that level of detail is not available to us and I'm not into trying to 2nd guess it....I based my decision to buy on a different criteria.
It's not the issues that bother me either, it's the repetitive nature of the negative picture they are constantly pursuing and I dont think that is to do with RL trying to get a better picture of the investment case.
If he has said it once...he has said it 100 times, you would think an ex banker would get fed up with it himself!
Please indulge me, I'm just being a bit pedantic here. Also, for the record I'm not defending anyone.
But you say,
"Is it because you’re paid to talk this share price down?"
Now, if you are as savvy as you think you may be, then you would know that nobody would admit to what you ask, even if true, but it's not really a question, is it ?
It's an accusation and to be fair, you have zero evidence to support your accusation, so in the interests of fairness and balance, you should retract your remark in order to receive a reply, though not sure you'll get one.
False accusations don't go down well here.
Just out of interest, how long have you held AMC shares continuously, if you do ?
Address the issues raised. If it is so obviously garbage, as you claim, you should be able put forward a counter argument instead of your usual bile and invective.
Attack the ball not the man, unless of course, you can’t.
The same negative postings over and over and over again.....just dressed up slightly differently.
For what purpose......I mean it's not as if these posts are creating a lot of discussion and they are hardly likely to inspire those who hold or might be interested in the company....more likely to get people to run a mile.
And, it's not as if they are accurate either and could indicate an investment decision....he might be knowledgable and have good experience in the field but these post are built on his guesswork and designed to generate trading....or why bother, if you have said it once is there a reason to say it over and over again.
If people are gullible enough to think that he is doing them a favour with this repetitive garbage then it just goes to show that if you can lead a horse to water then you can normally get them to drink it as well.
The two of you would do well to remember the following.
Great minds discuss ideas. Average minds discuss events. Small minds discuss people.
So, we have an ex banker who posts pages and pages of negative posts mainly on a friday night and Sunday and for years has been trying to figure out if AMC is a good investment or not.
Out of all the 5000 investable opportunities on aim he decides to concentrate his sole effort on amc after claiming he is no longer invested but is waiting to see some definitive signs before getting taking the plunge again.
I asked him on this board if we was going to attend the last investor event but never replied and never posted that he did attend....however, recently his posts have indicated that he was there....really?
Whatever his game is, he is not doing pi's here any favours unless ofcourse some having been happy to have sold out on the back of his posts and got back in cheaper.....your view might be biased on which side of that fence you are on but it's hard to believe that he's posting this stuff to try and understand if he should invest or not.....when quite clearly that level of negativity suggests that an ex banker would not bother his backside:)
Well said Primus. In fact RL has mentioned from time to time that he has held varying numbers of shares in AMC ,although I don't think they usually amount to a large percentage of his portfolio
Blue, if you think that RL discussing facts about the project is talking the price down then perhaps you’re in the wrong share? Similarly, if you think that anyone would pay RL enough per post to make that his sole reason for posting, you’re deluded. Maybe RL is trying to work out whether or not there is a good case to invest in AMC, finds some value in discussing his thoughts on a public forum, and is kind enough to share what appears to be incredible knowledge of mining operations with know-nothings like me? There are a number of people I’ve filtered on this board, and it’s the ones that are baselessly ramping the price that I block as I can very well make up stupid MCaps on my own without some other idiot doing it for me. What I can’t do is have significant mining knowledge and apply that dispassionately to a project, so I’m glad there is someone here that does, so maybe you could lay off the baseless accusations of RL being paid to be here? If he gets fed up and goes, then the board will be far the worse for it.
Blue. If there were to be a vote as to whether you or RL must cease posting , you would not stand a chance. This is a forum for intelligent debate and RL has been a valuable contributor for many years.
SP was surprisingly resilient yesterday. Bodes well for the coming week?