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I took it as a prediction ...lol
When I do my research on ALL , I find it does tick most boxes as being a good investment and when you compare it with its peers it should be x3 of what it is now. But what's holding it back. I'm not negative don't get me wrong, I even topped up last week.
I called 30p and it is called momentum.
The small tree shake last week, then the strong finish into the weekend and today picking up where we left last Friday.
ALL has got all the ingredients to move to 30p and beyond. If not tomorrow then 2022. GL
Nice to see that we actually touched 30p on the book offer price (29.5p paid) this afternoon (52 week high) and ended blue despite the broader market's woes. As Jlite observed, the SP here continues to show what looks like an engineered dip in the morning followed by a rise around 2PM and it has been yo-yoing daily like that with a clear overall uptrend over the last week. Quite possibly the up-trend will continue the rise to 30p and over very soon without needing any fresh news. The SP is still way below peer valuations and it could easily rise further as the stock comes to the attention of more investors here and in the US. I suspect that New Year portfolio adjustments could also bring more investors over to this stock in the next three weeks since this stock is very much thematically 'on-trend' and logically the SP here should continue to rise over the coming year as we get closer and closer to the predicted start of production.
My post was in reply to a poster who said 30p today or tomorrow !
Yes a nice rise in ZNWD, drawing in the price chasers and then hitting them with a 25% discounted placing!
Why should ALL rise at least another 10-15% this year? Due to the incredible updated scoping study released last week. Did you read it? 194% IRR! The numbers are of particular relevance as we are in the very unusual position of being fully funded to production, so the current market cap of $210m doesn't make much sense vs last weeks upgraded $789m NPV @$900 spod & an 11.4 year mine life.
There isn't much point comparing market cap to NPV before a project is fully funded as you are simply guessing about how much dilution there will be. ZNWD have construction capital costs of $159m to find, how are they planning to raise that? If it's half equity, half debt then their current enterprise value is greater than ALL... I know which one I'd prefer to own.
Can you also see what the next lottery numbers are please , be nice before Xmas
What information/data/news do you have for a 10 -15 % increase in SP ?
Nice rise in ZNWD today though.
I can see 30p coming today/tomorrow.
Also, as I understand it, the ivory coast packages are 100% owned by ALL.
Interesting to note that the price seems to be weaker in the morning and then picks up in the afternoon. This price pattern seems to suggest a seller in UK / Europe, or a simple tree shake by MMs to build stock, before stock being actively bought in the afternoon when the US come online. That would make sense given their profile in the US / CA should be slowly increasing with the backing of Piedmont.
Just a thought.
JL
Seen in before and will see it again. A drop that encourages sells only for a reversal and a gain. Bit of consolidation and hopefully an underlying strength being built into the SP here.
Invested on the back of the Webinar earlier this week and now I've had time to go through the previous history on this project I have confidently added more today and will continue to build a position here. Production/Take over either/or will suit me. The time until first production is good time allowing the resource to be built up and the market to demand more lithium as the market for EV's grows exponentially.
Nice of the MMs to walk it down to 25.18p for top-ups this morning. IMHO If the lead time to start of production is likely being cut to under 2 years or so then the SP really shouldn't be as vulnerable to retracing in the way it was earlier this year when we were expecting a four year wait to production. Also it doesn't yet look like the reduced lead time mentioned by the MD has been priced into the SP yet. If the expedited time-frame hasn't yet been formally notified to the market then perhaps when it is formally mentioned in any forthcoming RNS we should see a serious sustained further upswing. (As others including the MD have mentioned, we are way behind Lithium mining peers on valuation, and that is presumably in large part due to the previously assumed larger gap to our production start (and hence the logical disconnect from the year's increase in Lithium price), but since the gap to production is now likely to be much smaller the SP should gain to reflect that and at least partially reflect the increased Lithium value.
things rarely (never imo) go up in a straight line
As I've become more experienced, I keep a core hold, but no harm in having a trading pot too
I was here when it went all the way to 47, and back to 7.
Not going there again. 'Smell the roses along the way'...
Consolidating today, some big delayed buys being filled by PI's selling... 109k was bought on the bell at 27.4 and another 2 x 100k delayed buys were just reported. Shares passing from weak hands to new long term holders, happy days.
So I ran a few numbers and agree that these are cheap as chips...
NPV8 of $789m = £575m.
Half of that is retained = £287m.
EV of £287m = share price of 50p.
Now a mine is never worth the actual value of the NPV because it doesn't take account of risks. So if we discount by a third that leaves a share price of 33p. So that is my immediate target and am certainly a buyer up to that point. Although my boots are now pretty full of these already after topping up again today.
This price of course does not include anything for the rest of the assets and is based on a very conservative price of Li of only $900 when prices are currently more than double that. Of course, any further upgrade in resources from current drilling will upgrade this target price.
A nice situation to be in... A share price that is more than covered by the NPV of their assets that require zero further investment to deliver, with all further drilling in for free. And $20m in the bank to pay for the drilling. Roll on the DFS before someone buys out the other 50%. What is not to like?
2022 plan.
Initial target 33p.
In a few months we could have another lift in NPV from current drilling. 40p maybe?
Late next year we should have the DFS complete. 45p?
Upgrade to Li estimates likely at this point. 60-90p
Governmental approval should then come in early 2023 and then a move to production. £1
Production. £1.20?
In reality, I think they will be taken out in 2023 once the DFS is confirmed and the governmental approval. Only question is at what price?
JL
I think that 2025 date was before Piedmont came on the scene chucking money at us..I think by the sounds of things they are going hell for leather and proving up as big a resource as they can before somebody tries to make a tasty little snack of us
Re. production, the fact that it's DMS only and such a relatively low CAPEX to get the mine operational always meant that it was likely they would exceed any estimated production timelines. Both Cannacord & Liberum are forecasting material revenues in FY2024 (June 2023 - June 2024) and Vince is adamant 2023 is achievable. It's clear from the economics that there is a huge benefit to all in fast-tracking production and the geography & proximity to infrastructure means that there are no logistical barriers to getting things moving quickly.
Compare Ewoyaa to the likes of Firefinch's Goulamina or the AVZ Manono project and the difference is like chalk v cheese.
The AVZ logistics are actually quite ridiculous;
"The project will require the material to be transported to Dar es Salaam via Kabondo Diand. Broken down this will include trucking the material 350km along un-sealed roads to the SNCC rail line, from there, the concentrate will be carried 772km to Zambia, where it will then be transferred 165km via a second, in-country rail line, to Kapiri Mposhi, where it will finally be taken, again by train 1860km to Dar Es Salaam. In total AVZ have calculated in their DFS $41.85m would be required in capital cost for the roads and product transport mobile equipment, and $217.34/t LOM concentrate transport costs (68% of total operating costs)."
Nevertheless, AVZ have a current market cap of A$2.1B / £1.1B, yes they have a huge resource but the transport costs alone are almost higher than the total Ewoyaa C1 cash cost of $249/t!
There is so much room for the valuation to grow here vs peers.
We did try to tell you that your 4yr figure wa spie in the sky Dhanteras but would you listen?
Interesting facts missing here are that only about 10% of the cape coast lithium portfolio have been drill tested 90% to yet be tested ,the portfolio covers over 500 sq km in Ghana.The numbers are amazing already what's to come ? The company also holds permits for an area in CDI bigger than the Ghana land package ,Next door to Ghana anyone think there's lithium there too ?????? DYOR
2 years from now. Its a dig and ship mine, low cap ex and very low op ex, margins are astonishing. Npv 800m was using 900 price, as at today those prices well in excess of 2000. Just keep on drilling, all at piedmonts expense, the resource will keep growing, the numbers just get better and better and better.
Closest peer is core lithium just under 15mt mre approx 100kms from port very similar cost structure low cap ex and op ex has market cap on asx close to 1bill. Atlantic lithium is so incredibly undervalued, we should be 50p minimum, our time is coming, we'll be taken out well before production.
Well that is incorrect, as Vincent the CEO said twice in interviews on Tuesday, production will start 2023. Advise you watch one of the videos on here then you will know what is going on instead of spouting your usual sh___.
They have always said production in 2025?
Wow,this is going much faster than I thought....:-)
Hopefully no speeding ticket....:-)
Onwards and upwards.
GLA.
56,600m of drilling so far in the MRE. They are expecting another 28,000m to be reported soon. They will easily get over a 15 year mine life. Production is also estimated to start in 2023. Not far away now.
Given today's rise, and the volume of buys vs sells, I'm expecting a gap up on opening tomorrow.
very undervalued still!