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I haven’t read anywhere that they are stressing the electrodes, but it makes perfect sense that they are (in the same way that Ikea test stressful operations on their products - think the machine that opens and closes the drawer 200,000 times). This results in a conservative lifespan estimation as it’s not likely that they will suffer so much degradation in normal use.
Throughout this stress testing, I would hazard a guess that they are measuring the power outage of each electrode individually to come up with a robust average power per electrode and the level of variation around that average power output. These measurements Will be taken repeatedly over time (ie daily, weekly etc) and from that they can model the rate of degradation in average power over time.
From that data, there will come a certain point when the regression models estimate the 4 year lifespan will be achieved. De Nora will be able to say quite comfortably (given all the conservatism build in to the testing) that although they haven’t tested for the full 4 years, they know the electrodes will last that long.
In my opinion, I think at that point it’s likely the electrodes will last a good bit longer than 4 years and hence they will be happy to warrant them.
Please note, this is all my opinion based on what I would be doing (and looking for) if I was the statistician running the tests. Hope that helps, Lucky.
Gadams
Lucky, we know that longevity was estimated at between 3 and 4 years at the time of the interim report last month, and the test was still running. Given the significance of the four year figure I would hope we would get confirmation of that result.
The warranty is issued by De Nora. They are manufacturing the electrodes.
BumbleB The switching on/off of the electrodes would explain the " sawtooth action " in the graphs...the page 8 graph in particular seems to show a period between 0.3--0.4 on the time line of not being switched off....and shows a much smoother drop off....very consistent.
Thankyou BB and Southerhay, I understand they are running the tests at a higher level to give an estimate of longevity in a normal situation but we have no facts on where we are at the moment. Also if In their test they surpass 4 years longevity then this is still not a real life longevity only laboratory tests that predict the 4 years with the facts they have. So assuming they have predicted the 4 years in the labratory would this be rns'd as it's still only a prediction.
I am still confident in AFC at the moment as they are spending funds on equipment etc. And they wouldn't do this unless they themselves were confident in the product and the stats.
So who will be supplying the warranty? Afc or denora?
Thanks
I have had this explained to me in the past. I believe it involves running the electrodes in a stressful way, by switching them on and off. It is the heating and cooling that causes most damage to the catalyst layer so this sort of test is used to estimate longevity.
The first large stacks were only built four years ago and they have been subject to a programme of ongoing improvement. They could not rely on running them for the full lifetime of the stack before testing the next version.
I cannot find that confirmed in writing. Do others concur?
Hi Lucky520 - I'm not a scientist but it's a standard way of projecting whether a desired target will be reached based on the facts /results they have to-date. Otherwise we'd actually have to wait 4 years - which we obviously can't afford to do.
I take everything with a pinch of salt on here BB and never take anything for fact untill proven.
On another note, I have read the latest RNS and noticed that regarding the 3-4 years longevity claim is followed by the words 'on a extrapolated base' which I googled because I didn't know what it meant and it basically means an estimate on current trend. So my thoughts on this are we haven't yet reached 3 or 4 years but it looks like we will, but we still haven't!!!
Can someone with greater knowledge inform me if I am correct or not? Also have AFC confirmed 2 years yet?
Or are we all quessing at the moment.
Thanks Lucky