The latest Investing Matters Podcast episode featuring Jeremy Skillington, CEO of Poolbeg Pharma has just been released. Listen here.
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Yes, I am aware of that but rather hope the policy is not irreversible. I also am a little disappointed that such a policy decision can be taken so "under the radar". When were shareholders asked about that decision? One of the drawbacks of not holding face to face AGM's I suppose.
I can't say i disagree with you there Crusty, though from the half year report the company made this statement.
"Aminex continues to focus on a non-operating strategy. The Board believes that this focus will allow it to ultimately improve shareholder value. Having successfully identified a farm-in partner on its key Ruvuma asset, the Company continues to actively seek various options for its other assets that will align with its strategy of reducing risk, securing investment and reducing costs."
Personally I would rather they raised the capital in the market with a rights issue that allowed PI's to participate thereby allowing us to retain our majority position "operatorship" of Kiliwani and Nyuni. I would prefer not to see our "ownership" of those concessions diluted.
The above presupposes that AEX the Board and shareholders do decide that they want to remain "owner/operators" - I have already stated that it would be my preference.
"One other thing that has not been mentioned either is the (strong, in my mind) possibility that AEX will use the increase in market cap post CH1 drill to go to market for a Fund Raise; they missed that trick after NT2 and I doubt they would make that same mistake again"
possibly, but i think that will depend on any success they have in farming out the Nyuni and may be KNDL with it, which could relieve them of any further financial commitment ? I'm half expecting news in that regard soonish
BG all I am alluding to BG is the influx of "hot money" and the "rainbow chasers" that will inevitably occur at the time of the CH1 spud. Whatever level the sp reaches during the spud will not be maintained post the drill results as most of that hot money will then disappear; what level it will settle at post spud will depend on many things, as we have previously discussed but, and whilst I agree it is not inevitable, I am totally convinced that the sp will be lower in December than at the peak of the spud of the drill results. How many of those short termers will be holding all the way to production? How many long termers will sit on their hands post drill having seen what happened with NT2? The only thing that might keep them invested is if there is a CH2 announced as a consequence of the drill results - another "back to back drill". And how many newcomers, PI's or II's, will be buying immediately after the drill results bearing in mind that production is still circa 2 years away?
I fully recognise that the Company's situation has changed immeasurably but the nature and instincts of investors and traders haven't.
One other thing that has not been mentioned either is the (strong, in my mind) possibility that AEX will use the increase in market cap post CH1 drill to go to market for a Fund Raise; they missed that trick after NT2 and I doubt they would make that same mistake again.
Tanz
There's no trading in these shares for weeks; yesterday the only buy was mine, and usually the spread is so wide that day trading is impossible (that said, the real spread these days is 60/61.5)!
I'm not saying this will be the GSA, but the (conclusion of the Gas Terms) will pave the way for the awarding of the GSA.
Extension of Ruvuma Licence
https://www.lse.co.uk/rns/AEX/extension-of-ruvuma-licence-ka1n7cuav93u4j5.html
"The operator, ARA Petroleum Tanzania Limited ("APT") secured the extension, which is valid for two years from 15 August 2021, and allows for the completion of the following:"
my brackets
· Acquisition of 200 square kilometres (surface coverage) of 3D seismic data
· Drilling of the Chikumbi-1 well
· (Conclusion of negotiations of the Gas Terms for the Ruvuma PSA.)
My guess is there is a great deal of day trading afoot with this share. I never forget Frank at one time openly stating his profits for the week ! Luckily that stopped but if he picks up on this message, maybe he can confirm it's just him or his gang of Telegram people as well. I know, I know, it's a free country and nobody can stop such trading which after all, carries quite a risk but it's holding back the true sp for AEX which I believe is decently more than where we are right now. If Edgar reads these few words, can he reprint his big Aminex missive he published some few months ago. Maybe we can see if what he stated then is so far coming true, or not.........
How long for a GSA, remember way back yonder??
" it may well have hit 7+p intra year but I doubt that it will sustain it until December."
Crusty, the company is not where it was when they drilled the NT-2 well, which the SP at the time did sort of follow your price prediction above. the Ntorya project has moved so much closer towards monetization than it was back then, with license extensions and the farm-out providing the guaranteed development money. The 3D and the CH-1 well (hopefully) will provide the info and confirm the size and quality of the Ntorya resource. And then as we will be approaching 2023, the development/monetization of that resource will be looking the (on the not to distant horizon), plus the Jurassic target of CH- 1 has the potential to surprise the market.
"One things for sure, this will be going up next year. SP this time next year 7-10p" Well I am sure that we can take that as "gospel" then PoC?! But then weren't you suggesting as far back as April that we should have seen well over 1p by now? But then that is the thing about "predictions" - they cannot all be right. Who knows maybe next year will be your year?
7 - 10p by next December? That is certainly brave and in my view more than a little optimistic. Moreover I suspect that by "this time next year" the sp will be well past its peak.... it may well have hit 7+p intra year but I doubt that it will sustain it until December.
Maybe with the New Year coming around it will soon be time for 2022 predictions? That should be fun ;0)
I would just feed a few buys in gradually. If it goes down, you get in cheaper. If it goes up you'll make some profit on initial purchase. One things for sure, this will be going up next year. SP this time next year 7-10p
Just bought a few at 0.615!