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If you're going to value the company, talk in terms of justifiable market capitisation, not share price. AEX has no income, virtually no cash, and depended on APT for a hand-out to tide them over while /gov.tz/ dither on indefinitely regarding approvals. They have locked-in estate, value they cannot currently extract, and yet a market capitalisation of £58m.
You have one poster here who says he has information that you're about to get over the line; legal? No, whether true or false. It's either inside information or market manipulation, take your pick. Be careful of being suckered into another overvalued gold-rush like Tip-Top and friends did at the start of 2017.
If on the other hand that poster is correct, that APT are responsible for the delays, they you might want to be looking at the most recently adjusted long-stop of 30 June 2020, since that is APT's doing. Sure, they say they shouldn't need it, but they didn't imply they'd be done in a couple of weeks either.
All said, you have prospects and a valuable CPR that needs to be unlocked.
If you got 7p then you'd be lucky to get 3p now.
* should have read "no longer have KN1 income..."
"Also, we now own less of Ruvuma...but holding 25% didn’t stop Solo achieving comparable gains to us the last time around."
This really does miss the point - Solo had 25% of Ruvuma whilst AEX had 75% - But Solo had only one quarter of AEX Market Cap, So NO Uhufuo Solo did NOT have comparable gains. AEX Market Cap rose by (Circa) £200m and Solo only £50 million....
Since ten we have the prospect of lower Jurassic targets and $5 million and $35 million "credit" BUT we no longer have KN1 and no longer have any cash in the bank and ho knows what the outcome of the PSA review will be and the effect of that on future income.
In my opinion these do not totally compensate for the loss of 50% of our Ruvuma prospect. However I do expect a good rise on the completion of your list of potential developments. A big factor though on the effect of these on the sp / MC will be the waiting time between them. A potential 6 month wait for C1 spud and any short term sp rise is unlikely to hold, in my view.
Hence the height of that potential short term rise will be dependent on the C1 spud date being in Dec/Jan. Do I expect that to happen? No more than 50:50 methinks.
Absolutely vike. Although this time I think we should rise to much greater and more sustainable highs than that time around. Back at the end 2017, before it was announced that the rig was on site for NT2, the share price in a similar place to where it is now. The share price rose to more than 7p during that drill. Two years of complete inactivity whilst Tanzania gets its house in order has seen the share price drift down to a mere fraction of what it was.
The NT2 rise was obviously driven by the fact the drill could start to prove basin model for Ruvuma and the fact that it was planned to be back to back with Ntorya 3 (now Chikumbi 1)...and the associated hype.
NT2 was a huge success (fixable damage related flow rates aside), resulting in a 12-fold increase in resource estimates over the 2015 CPR. So, this time we start our assault on new sp highs with that in our pocket. Obviously back then Kiliwani was still producing and so we are now weaker in that regard. Also, we now own less of Ruvuma...but holding 25% didn’t stop Solo achieving comparable gains to us the last time around.
So, from a similar sp starting point, we now have the prospect of:
1. The license being granted and completion of the farmout with the balance of $5m paid to Aminex
2. Chikumbi 1 spud date
3. Chikumbi 1 results
4. Tax dispute resolved. $3m net to Aminex
5. KN1 potential remediation and resumption of limited production. 6MMcf/d? Perforation of lower zone to potentially considerably increase production and longevity
6. Kiliwani South drill spud date
7. NT1, NT2 and CH1 connection to Madimba gas processing plant to establish early production system with min gross production of 40MMcf/d. The start of significant revenues. The rumour is that we should be able to produce at much higher rates.
8. 200sq km of 3D seismics over Ntorya development area, plus further 75sq km 3D seismics over Kiliwani and Nyuni. Imagine the CPR after that!
9. Kiliwani South drill
10. Likely 5-well field development programme
With the licence granted and Aminex comparatively flush with cash, we could see all of this happen in the next 12 to 18 months.
CH1 is now MUCH bigger and is dual target - when compared to NT3 as it was. With that in mind and the potential for OIL and a fully carried forward plan for Ruvuma (last time around, we had NT2 to look forward to but not the extensive forward plan we have now), not to mention the ever improving demand picture, there is every reason to believe that we will reach and then drive on through the share price highs of NT2.
10p party? Only for the very impatient ;-)
Looking at the charts, our steady sp movements over the last two months are looking eerily similar to those of Fall 2016, in the lead up to NT2. We've had spikes since, but nothing this supportive for such an extended period.
A licence and a Spud date before year end would be perfect Sambo!
Looking good Vike! One of the highest volume days in the last year or so and a sustained rise in the SP.. let’s hope it’s being driven by ‘those in the know’ and signals that the licence will now drop. Feels like it’s very close now. Would be great to get a positive CH-1 ops update at the same time as the licence.
19.2m shares traded today.
Chunky stuff for a day with no news. Goes well beyond the hopes and means of a small group of BBers.
CP, there's your big order at 16:31! Bang on.
Saw that Big Lad.Did dummy purchase just now,offering 1.605 purchase.ATB VS
Full ask paid for £57.75 worth of shares! Looking at the trading for the last three hours or so most of the bigger trades have been sells. That said, the sp seems to be holding, so maybe there is a buy order in the background; if so it acts as a double edged sword - it will keep the sp up despite the sellers but will limit the upside until the order is filled.
The next hour will provide clarity. IT would be lovely to see the sp finish here.
1.65 full ask paid
Good day onwards to 2p