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IG also have a close of 3.85..
With every charting platform you get 300 odd indicators and a lot of newbies throw 200 of them on a chart and expect the price to go up. The problem is most will have a confirmation bias so expect the price to rise cos their 179th indicator says so. :-) (i have 2 on my chart the RSI and a moving average i use the same 2 on every chart i look at, it works for me) The close above the AUGUST high (not July..doh ) is my confirmation of a breakout. Lets see how it play out..gl
HL has a closing price of 3.85p so all good. (It did come back to around 3.67p during the day , so not that close a test of the support so far.)
In my experience the longer a stock stays above a support the less likely it is to go back to test it.
Charting is super easy in hindsight which is why it is so attractive to so many as a system.
In real-time, of course its nowhere near as clear cut! So when new highs or break outs happen like now, its always a bit of a nail biter as to whether the break-out holds or falls back through the support.
But as I say, so far so good.
Always DYOR, but my charts are positive and we may possibly break 4p tomorrow..
Ha ha! well its TA for goodness sake, us chartists are never wrong! :0))
I have built up a position now in ADV that I am comfortable with and as long as the chart continues to supports it, I am fine.
On these stocks (small cap, aim, high risk, don't touch with a barge pole, don't tell any friends or family, type) I always use a stop below the "obvious" one, which although increases the risk of a higher loss should it be triggered it also allows me to be more relaxed if and when it "breaks" down and at the same allows me to consider adding to my position without having to make an "immediate" decision.
(same with HE1 which I also bought more of today and again have been building a position in over the last weeks.)
@wyn.
So, it could go up, it could go down or it could drift sideways. :-). (Friendly tease I promise).
I’ll be holding off any trading until we’re into the 4p range I think. Good to see you back here - you’ve been quiet recently.
totally correct, nice one
well the chart is definitely saying break out! According to HL it has closed a 3.8p and thats a much better distance away from the previous (what turned out to be a false) BO at 3.62p.
Although 5p is the next target its an old chart to go back to, so who knows...but this is good news as I think this one will hold or, perhaps better to say imo, it looks more likely than not that this will turn out to be the real deal.
Those not in already may...just may, get a chance of a retrace to around 3.6p support, but this was a big break up so it may have further to go before cooling off. Again this is where the mind games start.
I expect that the SP will open higher tomorrow to flush out more buyers scared of missing out on bigger gains. This will give a bit more impetus to the SP, so i can't call the upside and all being well the down side (if it comes at all) will be a retest of 3.6p before moving up again, but for clarity I think the floor when it comes will be above 3.6p
Thats ok isn't it? TA, could go up, could go down.. who knows? :0))
...so much news to come in the next 5 weeks or so Buffalo related, each news can take us to a new price range (hopefully):
-Permit news.
-Rig mobilised.
-Spud.
- New deal(s) announcement before end of the year is quite possible.
Good post ST. Spud in 4 weeks but this is just the start, I’ll continue accumulating as I’m here for 5-10x returns medium term. Enough from me and DYOR.
@wyn.
4p to me is a psychological level as it’s a round number. Also, it’s 50% up for me (approx) on my average. So, if I trade some at that level and the SP shoots up, then I have still made a very nice return. If they drop and I can buy back more for the same funds - cushty,
I have no hard and fast rules which I stick to - I know you do and I respect your choices and I can see the advantage to that, but also the potential pitfalls (nothing in investing is easy eh! Lol).
Thanks @JEZZAC.
@ShareInvestment.
I’m maxed out here 7.63m @ 2.634 average. Bought is large and early. Made the mistake on HE1 of buying in over time and averaging up. I did add some around 3.1 which took my average up and may trade some once we get north of 4p (with intention to buy back more on any drops).
With the expected news-flow over the next 3 months here, I can’t see any major risks, but will sell a chunk before the results to take average even lower. Upside potential look really good, both in terms of COS, potential for exceeding estimates, higher oil price, accelerated production plan and additional agreements. All very positive IMO.
SI & SGF, I get your scepticisim, but.... why (SGF) do you think 4p plus is important (or important enough for you to use that as a target/figure?) Likewise SI, what's special about 3.7p?
I'm not trying to ram TA down any throats, but almost all investors place price targets on their expectations and usually inevitably, its based on what has gone before when quickly looking at a chart. So whether or not there is a conscious acceptance of TA as a method of expectation, the fact that many use it, even sub-consciously, simply adds to the "predictability" of the likely hood of emotional response of buyers and sellers at particular price points.
(Its still just a crap shoot....) :0))
SGF In laymans terms the price is consolidating.. Since 1 st week in August we have bounced from 3p to a high of 3.7..
The markets moves in 3 directions YES 3.. up down and sideyways and 70% of the time all markets move sideways.
The other 30% of the time we either get really excited or extremely p***ed off.. :-)
IMO and what i am looking at on my chart we may see another small dip down to 3.3p before and hopefully a move north..
SGF same here. I think that in a few sessions we will break above this 3.70 area, it's inevitable as we get close to a drill which could net ADV 20,000 bopd, which in my books could drive our market cap towards 200mio. Remember that they are also looking at other exceptional transactions which in turn could drive the re-rate. Accumulate before the masses arrive and our mcap is around £35mio is my take, as we all know they will arrive during October and November.
Thanks Wyn/ontarget. I still have a sceptical view on any great advantage to TA within AIM/explorers myself, but still read and consider what others say.
Must admit, I had thought by early October we’d be in the 4p+ range. Maybe end of the month we’ll see some sustained increase.
Thanks for the chart explanation which is very interesting. In the meantime I got myself another 500,000 shares this afternoon, as I remain of the idea that we have a very high probability (no certainty) to re-rate significantly in case of Buffalo success.
SGF, the fall back to 3.5p (where it had been a high 3 times previously is the next support so (technically) its now in a trading range between 3.5p to the new high of 3.62p and a break above 3,62 would be bullish. If it closes below 3.5p than the next support is a bit debateable , there is a case for 3.4p but the next major support imo, is 3.25p.
(3.58p is no longer a support or resistance as it was supplanted by the new high of 3.62p. So even if it went to 3.6p that would not be particularly noteworthy of further rises as it had been higher (3.62), and fell back.
Again technically, now we can say 3.62p would be classed as a "false breakout".
TA is brilliant for never being wrong and every move was entirely predictable, I may even have mentioned it was possible that the 3.62p was to be cautious about further gains....
(Just for absence of any doubt i am taking the **** out of myself.)
But the thing to bear in mind when using TA, is that is a an odds game. It tries to point out what the next move is most likely to be, rather than being in fact predictive.
Its like Harry Kane taking a penalty. He will almost certainly score but there is a small chance he won't. So you would (if you had to) bet that we would score a goal. However if he then went on to miss the next 6 penalties then the odds of him scoring will change and you might also change your bet on the outcome with this new info and past results.
And that's pretty much TA. It tells you what is most likely to happen next but that move may not be sustained if over the next few days or (weeks)new info emerges (patterns) that then changes the forecast.
You can't use prices to 2 DP as precise support/resistance levels. There is a resistance level/zone around 3.5-3.7p we have yet to break.
Does this mean that as it's closed at 3.5p (below the 'support' level of 3.58p) that 3.58p is not a support level?
Just topped up at 3.4p. We know this can move pretty fast like we saw in the last couple of weeks. Just going to sit back now and relax as we get closer to spud. Looking forward to the interest building this week! With oil over $80 the case here is definitely compelling!
Thanks for that wyndrum and you are right about the hardest buy. Should have chucked the kitchen sink in at 2.2.
Noeasy, I did not today but only because I had already identified an entry point lower down just above 3.0p.. I posted on the 21st Sept: "Chart suggests the fall is over. just needs to say above 3.02p and it should be fine" (Thread: TA Chart... by all means look away now) and replied to SGF: ""....and it so happens today the chart looks ok at this level so i bought a very modest amount purely on the chart....." I then bought more about 2 days later as I felt it looked good and was worthy of more funds.
So, although I did not pull the trigger today, I did when I saw it originally The first buy is always the hardest emotionally because you are naturally unsure if It will work or not. (its easy to be relaxed when you are 15% up and decide to average up......).
So, my point was, not me specifically today, but generally. When you have a system that you believe in and it says buy, then... buy. otherwise its not much use. (One of the great lines in films is The Cable Guy when Jim Carey says "he who hesitates, masturbates..." and it perfectly sums up this example!! (Always makes me laugh that line...always!)
Anyway, tomorrow is another day. GLA
Looked at my tea leaves also...and see today as a positive with further upside...go figure lol
In the grand scheme of things.... does it really matter? I'm not on here as much because i've invested early and just letting it all unfold...bar a black swan, (gulp!). In comparison to baking a cake.. mixture is still in the bowl and we'll be sticking it in the oven next week... then, just watch it rise!
Well composed post that Wyndrum, loved the humour. I could almost smell the tension.
That trigger thing you talked about, did it get pulled??????????
Hi Wyndrum, “the joys of ta” indeed”;
So tomorrow Tuesday it might rain or shine or just be full of snow blizzard, then again it might remain foggy lol
My advice is stuck long and it dosent even have to be that long term - just three or four months to at least triple share value