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‘ narcissistic and delusional’
Hopefully we get four more years of the God Emperor Trump.
With age comes wisdom and thus it behoves me to steer clear of the company of those who appear to thrive on hatred and being offensive, narcissistic and delusional. I will happily raise my glass anytime to you, ASH. Respectfully, DJ
hi, everyone what the charts say whem we hitting the big time .
Hi Paul, you're a braver man than me! What I don't get sometimes is why you and Joe are always locking horns, apart from the politics. I'm pretty sure I'd get on with both of you over a couple of beers, even if I had to play referee/umpire!
Anyway, a good day today for everyone with POG on the rise. AAU does look nicely poised for a bit of a run. Just needs a bit of volume and some whoop, whoop! I'll try and be more positive.
Ash I’m riding high on GGP, ECR, UJO & RBD in my SIPP and ISA, just purchased my first WEN.
Had a bit of spare cash from dividends knocking around so made a small purchase of ZEN to average down and got a stink bid in on ECHO.
Not to sure whether to make a small purchase of HUR.
Just to confuse matters, I added some AAU in my HL SIPP today with some uninvested cash & monthly pension contribution. Roll on Xmas, eh Joe!
Good post, Balanced66 (and welcome).
Lot of important and true facts from you , ASH and timely reminders too from Van.
I'm sorry, John, that you feel your enthusiasm has waned but you ain't all alone out there. I got into "the dumps" myself end of last month and went cryin' in my beer on the ADVFN Chat whereupon I was swiftly booted back on the AAU trail by Biggles and renniks. (thanks guys if you're seeing this!)
Anyway, ASH, I'm crazy enough to charge into the china shop. My forecasts have turned out accurate over the last 2 years and I've recently suggested (along with others here) that we might see 5p by Christmas/New Year. To put a little more meat on the bones ( so you might chew on it, John, with no disrespect) I will set the scene by pointing out that, invariably, Ariana's share price gradually descends when the RNS stays quiet over time. We got an uptick when we found out the MoU was still alive and kicking and the potential additional partner was identified. Then, as usual, no more details (or timetable) and down goes the sp. So what next? For starters I'm inclined towards ASH's implied warnings about possible impending decreased productivity and lower grades for a while. If this adversely affect the (now delayed) audit figures we could drop back into the three pence plus levels until the MoU is finally converted into a signed and sealed agreement. At that point there should be a serious upward valuation (with the help of some good cover and comment from PG and others in the stockbroker houses). With a bit of luck it might happen before Christmas and we might also get to know what divvi we can look forward to and when.....and my forecast will thus be on target!
However that then becomes the decider for those of ya'all who don't want a longer term holding to seek serious money at the rainbow's end because from there on it's all about sorting out environmental and other permits, digging into the ground and bringing a whole series of mines into production. Each productive one will enhance the share price. The roller coaster will continue and, as many of you holding "wannabe" bigger mining company shares may know to your cost..... underground assets and debt don't figure well in underpinning share values. Regards, DJ.
Cheers Ash. Respect your views and that of fellow investors here you all seem to know your mining inside out which is impressive. I've still got a lot to learn about mining. I look out more for valuation metrics when choosing stocks and this came across as undervalued to me. My average is around 3.40ish so happy to hold. I only got back into investing from late March or so after a long absence and reading this board I can see many of you have much lower entry points - well done all.
Appreciate there is risk with everything and we have to try and make the best use of the funds we have.
Hi B66, I can't answer for everyone so I'm not going to attempt that. The concept of the new JV is fine by me. I understand the benefits and I also understand the short-term value that is being given up. I could probably provide you with a what if scenario that compares the two options over the next few years in terms of profit and cash. What I cannot do is provide you with a prediction on how the sp will react and I doubt anyone else can.
In short, everyone has to weigh up where to invest their cash now in the hope that the decision is the right one for them. If you have a longer-term view, then AAU stacks up - I cannot disagree with the points you put forward.
Personally, I think AAU will produce c. 18.5k oz of gold this year - about 2/3 of 2019 production. I think this will settle around 17-18k oz until Tavsan comes into production early 2022.
Granted the increasing POG will enhance profitability, but cash costs of production will also increase due to lower grades being mined - the best grades from Arzu South are nearly exhausted and the remaining grades are nearer 2 g/t then 4 g/t. They are unable to increase capacity for at least 12 months from the time they instigate that process. By the end of this year, I estimate they will have a year's worth of throughput sat in the stockpile. God knows where they're going to put that!
I don't think anyone has researched AAU or crunched the numbers to the extent that I have in the last year (if they have, then fair play) so I don't say this lightly, but as an investor, I need an increase in production, sales and profit whilst POG is on the rise in order to keep all my investment here as opposed to looking elsewhere. I do not disagree there is huge potential and in due course, the new JV will make this happen. There are risks as some allude to, but there is with so many investments. C;est la vie. Ultimately, you pays your money and makes your choice.
Not sure if mybfellow investors have seen the website?
If Ozaltin are about to pay circa 60 million then would there interests not be aligned with ours? Perhaps more so as they would want to get a return on the money they have just paid out?
This is from the November 2019 RNS re the proposed MOU terms which the latest RNS states will be the basis for the agreement:
"be party to a shareholder and joint operating agreement, retaining representation on the Zenit board;"
Imo there will be sufficient legal safeguards in the shareholder and operating agreement and the other legal paperwork to safeguard shareholder interests.
Also the rationale behind the proposal:
"It is the current intention of the Board to consider distributing part of this sum as a special dividend to shareholders, once the mechanics for doing so are established. The Company will also utilise its enhanced capital position to fund further growth of Ariana's business. The latter activity will involve the acquisition of new exploration and development projects either within Turkey or in other regional jurisdictions and provide for the advancement of the Company through the development of other assets held in whole or in part outside of the arrangements contemplated within the transaction."
It may not be quoted Van but Ozaltin is still 'owned' by someone, maybe its family owned, maybe a private company with a wider shareholder base. At a high level their board has one reason to be - to maximise value for their shareholders. Which is why I say now that control over assets and the operations has been ceded to a company whose priority is not AAU shareholders. AAU is now a miniority shareholder, and even it they gang up with Proccea they still cannot over rule Ozaltins decisions.
Hi John, that first line sums up a lot of the investment stories in mining. GGP, PUR, EUA and countless others have so much baked into the sp in the earlier stages, but once they actually start producing, the valuation metrics seem to change overnight and they never seem to revert back to that original optimism, even when they move forwards with additional prospects potentially adding greater value.
I guess the only way to embrace this dichotomy is to have a bit of both in your portfolio - you know who your steady eddies are that you can trust and will rise over time, but you add a few riskier plays in the hope that one of them will be the multi-bagger you dream about, especially in the current climate. Not a good idea to go full in on a lot of the riskier plays, but adds a bit of spice!
Just one point John - Ozaltin isn't a listed Co.
Significant news is probably likely before Salinbas imo.
Firstly look at all the references to the Underground work at Arzu South and join the dots.
Secondly look at all the references to to the Cyprus potential.
Thirdly a second mine at Tavsan in around 18 months taking us from circa 20,000 ozs p.a. to 50,000 oz p.a, isn't an insignificant uplift in my book.
And latest, how will Kerim use his potential new war chest? Value creation for sure.
With gold getting close to $1800 plus the silver credit, our margins are looking very sexy.
Preliminaries probably next week followed by Annual Results all no doubt highlighting the value disconnect.
Agree with both views put forward. From my own personal experience I've learnt that too much interfering with my investments has cost me dearly in gains. I would have been better off just leaving my investments as they were rather than being impatient and selling half or the whole holding and buying something else. I'm generally ok in selecting stocks but quite poor on my timing point overpaying or selling too early.
Anyway still learning. They say the stats for short term traders are not very good as most lose money?
But each person to their own and each person's circumstances are different. GLA.
Just the froth has declined , maybe realism setting in. Hands up, I have been publicly anti this from the initial announcement but I know the vast majority of posters disagree with me. Fair enough, that's probably in their favour because I'm usually wrong!
Unless a Hot Maden type deposit is stumbled upon I thing we have quite a long wait now for significant news. My main gripe is the loss of control for what seems a modest sum - not only is this loss seen in the financial interest in the producing resources but also that the future strategy of the new JV will be dictated by Ozaltin as 53% shareholders - and their decisions will (quite correctly) be in the interests in Ozaltin shareholders not AAUs.
I am a little ray of sunshine aren't I?
Interesting way of putting it.
A lot of patience required here, however I like to think that any downside here will be caused by pi’s looking for short term gains elsewhere. IMHO the market cap is still on the low side and will eventually rerate when further news is forthcoming.
I like some others here have an emotional attachment, justifiable in ones mind because we believe the management here are as “honest” as they come, which is not necessarily a good thing from a wealth creation aspect.
Sadly I think this is a case of its better to travel than to arrive. Its been a few days since confirmation of the MOU, cant see any significant rise happening unless an extraordinary spurt occurs in metal prices. I'm very much with Ash on this, he seems a level headed sort of chap. I still intend to maintain a shareholding and wish all here good luck so will pop up from time to time but admit my enthusiasm for this story has waned.
Hi daiadeath, a good summary, but the additional funds from Ozaltin and the provision of management services by Proccea for their earn-in will result in a transfer of shares with cash and services being injected into the new JV rather than any additional pay out to AAU, if my understanding is correct.
First time poster, longer time holder. I have been watching the figures being suggested on the board relating to the MOU. I may well be wrong but...
If it goes through I believe there are three components
Part 1 ) Zenit becomes Oz 53 pct / Aau 23.5 / Proc 23.5
Part 2) Salinbas becomes Oz 17 pct / Aau 83
Part 3) Salinbas becomes Oz 53 pct / Aau 23.5 / Proc 23.5
Regarding Part 3 I refer to " .. and that the Salinbas Project ultimately will be acquired by Zenit, such that the respective shareholdings do not change."
Settlements payable to Aau , if I have read it correctly,
Part 1) usd 25 million
Part 2) usd 5 million
Part 3) usd 8 million "in equity" . Shares in some company perhaps.
plus, since I believe Salinbas is currently 100 % Aau, some amount from Proc.
Estimate of Proc amount - This is tealeaf reading stuff but if Oz is paying Usd 5 mill + Usd 8 mill equity for 53 pct perhaps Proc 23.5 pct would be "valued" at usd5.76 mill. This "usd 5.76 m" could be settled in cash or equities or earn in for example.
If correct, then Aau total receipt would be usd 30 mill cash + usd 8 mill of some equity + possibly usd 5.76 million worth of something from Proc.
Just my opinion and the ususal caveat dyor of course.
Ok tigers, go on, rip it apart, I can take it. :-)