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Which scenario is objectively more likely?
Scenario 1
• AAOG proving that an onshore rig can target the Djeno at miniscule cost compared to offshore drilling has been ignored by local licence holders in Congo B with leads able to be targeted from onshore, but no land to drill from.
• Djeno from upper reservoir found by Anglo has not been produced from previously, but this is still of no interest to Majors in the region
• That the Djeno oil is galloping to surface without stimulation is of no interest to Majors
• That the Anglo Geological modelling, although proven to be extremely accurate, is of no interest to Majors in region and irrelevant data they would not care to examine or utilise in their geological mapping of shallower prospects.
• That no sort of discussion could have possibly taken place to explore options for mutual benefit with any party – no interest whatsoever in this licence area that has found oil in 5 intervals with a rust bucket ancient onshore drill.
Scenario 2
• AAOG are in active discussions, sharing data with New Age and potentially others, Its just Geological knowledge
Yep heard that the other day. On Twitter as well.
GLA
So heres another rumour from another site to add to the mix.
DM200017 Oct '19 - 11:29 - 3859 of 3869
hng reverse takeover imminent multi bag
Geological modelling combined with the detailed well logs for TLP-103C could have been shared as Skittish outlines
If data has been shared, then New Age can extrapolate the Geo model results, combined with their 3D seismic for their leads and decide on the best location for their first drill in Q1 2020
"Exploration drilling planned spud 2020, one well could test multiple plays"
Why wait until Q1 2020? They could have drilled already or very soon with their resources, they have Regional Gravity survey , 3D seismic data completed to allow drill target completion, normally sufficient for a first drill.
A reason for delay could be to gain the further shared drill data following AAOG sidetrack, further supporting the theory of shared data - AAOG have the only drill data very near the Marine III leads surrounding Tilapia, with more drill data to come.
I'd suggest you keep the same thread title COdey, changing the title to a negative one is a bit below you I'd say.
The points I've made are factual, no artistic license required !!!!
Proving we have a working hydrocarbon system with oil across all 5 target zones, plus Djeno flowing naturally without stimulation is huge news!!!
New age selling MXII for $800mm valuing the asset at $3.2bn is huge news !!!
The fact our Tilapia block sits smack bang in the middle of the new New Age block which they are just about to begin exploring is also huge news !!!
All these points are transformational for AAOG !!
Skittish: on your New Age point:
"They have done seismic this year and bearing in mind, most of their plays are right next to our licence area they would almost certainly - foolish not to - have done detailed seismic over our licence area also. You could imagine them saying to AAOG we'll swap our seismic for your TLP-103C drilling data."
The from AAOG half year report Sep 27th:
“Furthermore, with the licence covering an area of 50.51 sq km, the Company has already identified multiple follow-up drill locations that can be targeted, once well TLP-103C has been brought into production to generate further cash flow. “
Seismic would be best to establish these drill sites - they had no other data we know of since Finals statement back in June 28th on just ten wells intention, nor exact locations:
“Stage Five - A ten-well development plan for Tilapia is under discussion with the DGH, and the scale and speed of its execution will depend on the results from the stages described above and the finalisation of attractive terms for the new licence over Tilapia that is currently being negotiated.”
Perhaps a deal is done already with New Age
Skittish, DS took a lot of stick on this BB so this could be his nod to the fact hes still very involved......my preferred reasoning is this is a friendly sign (not from DS) to put us on the right track and as you say alert us to background activity. We have been locked in a news void for quite a long time with serious radio silence. Unfortunately that's allowed the darkside and trolls to hammer our SP with the market falling for their bad vibes. This leak came on the day the new company was formed so they were desperate to send a signal that it's very much all systems go behind the scenes !!!
I don't believe that DS would gloat.
Or if he was to - he would do it in a more sophisticated way than simply setting up a new company with a capital of £1.
I suspect that the AAOG board are inundated with emails asking why there is no apparent activity, so maybe he (if it was he - and of course we don't know that) was hoping to take a little heat off them.
AAOG is a bit of a minnow in Congo with many larger fish close by - in fact surrounded by them - Lukoil, New Age, Wing Wah, Gazprom etc.
I can see that as being something of a disadvantage, as well as an advantage, given our location. The others are tooled up with cash, whereas we have to scrimp and scrape - although we are fully funded for TLP-103CST.
On the New Age website they refer to Marine III as "low risk appraisal" - that is quite something, bearing in mind that it hasn't been drilled yet.
http://www.newafricanglobalenergy.com/our-portfolio/
They have done seismic this year and bearing in mind, most of their plays are right next to our licence area they would almost certainly - foolish not to - have done detailed seismic over our licence area also. You could imagine them saying to AAOG we'll swap our seismic for your TLP-103C drilling data.
New Age also altered their web page on 8th October 2019 (first alteration in around a year) to reflect the divestment of Marine XII and to report that they intended drilling on Marine III Q1 2020 - and that was a firm date. The actual location is not specified, but it could be really close to us.
Bearing in mind we are (allegedly) intending to drill Q4 2019 I thought this was really significant. Everyone knows my thoughts on potentially drilling Marine III using our Tilapia pad.
Having discovered the Q1 2020 New Age drilling date (and shouted whoopee!!) I then posted that information on here that evening - and a link to the webpage. By the evening of 9th October 2019 New Age had again altered their web page simply to refer to Marine III drilling "sometime" in 2020.
http://www.newafricanglobalenergy.com/congo-brazzaville/
Now, so significant did I regard the firm Q1 2020 date that I actually took a screenshot of the page - I've had pages altered on me before.
https://ibb.co/kHvTCyw
Left is the 8th October Q1 2020, and 24 hours later just 2020. The significance is no longer in the dates, but the alteration. As always it is the cover up that is significant, not the original action itself.
Call me a conspiracy theorist if you want - I'm sure doodlebug6125 would - but there appears to be plenty going on surrounding AAOG, both metaphorically and literally.
As I say - watch this space...
We either need money to buy Tunisian assets or some sort of asset exchange. ..... Panoro Energy certainly have assets that would suit our style just as an example of Tunisian assets.
However, if the leak was from the DS side it's more likely to be gloating rather than anything really positive for us.
Thanks, when I searched for doodlebug I came up with this that’s why I thought the post was removed. I shall get up to speed again Monday
https://www.lse.co.uk/profiles/doodlebug/
irishmouse,
doodlebug6125 posted at 15.02 on Friday and "his" post stated "New company ATOG MIDCO Ltd today...."
The post has not been removed. I've already mentioned that this is his first post although he has been a member of LSE since 13th May 2015. The AAOG admission document states that the then ED's were raising finance for what would become AAOG by June 2015.
A more important question is why create another ATOG company?
There are now -
Anglo Tunisian Oil and Gas Limited created 22nd March 2019
DS director that day, JB director 25th March 2019, Vanineuse, Pingray, Mamou-Mani (EHGOSF - Alpha blue Ocean) directors 23rd April 2019. This company was originally controlled by DS but since 23rd April 2019 has been controlled (25% to 50% of the shares) by
Anglo Tunisian Oil & Gas LLP which was created on 23rd April 2019, DS and JB appointed directors that day each with 50% of the shares.
(The 12th July 2019 AAOG RNS states that ATOG Limited is controlled 50% by ATOG LLP and 50% by ABO in return for the initial financing of ATOG Limited by ABO)
Anglo African Group Limited created 25th April 2019, DS sole director and with control.
ATOG Midco Limited created 18th October 2019, DS and JB directors, DS has control, 75% plus of shares - in fact 1 share owned by DS.
The 12th July 2019 RNS also stated "The Company will continue to review whether any transaction between ATOG and AAOG should be treated as a related party transaction pursuant to the AIM Rules for Companies" which raises the possibility that there could be future transactions between AAOG and ATOG.
The name "ATOG Midco" suggests it could be used to transfer assets between one entity and another entity - although names can be deceptive of course. Perhaps more importantly it hasn't got any directors from ABO sitting on the board. They can't be removed from the board of ATOG Limited as they have 50% of the shares, so the existence of ATOG Midco Limited neatly excludes them.
I somehow got the impression that the seller of the Tunisian assets got cold feet after DS changed hats, so maybe thought that ABO weren't suitable buyers (shades of Philip Green and BHS), so maybe if DS and JB put on their AAOG hat again things might move forwards.
doodlebug's post was certainly a signal of some sort - but quite what it means I'm not entirely sure.
DS always was a bit of a tease.
More exciting than re-entering TLP-103C? What could be more exciting than that? Well maybe some sort of significant deal leveraged with a share of Tilapia?
Definitely a question of watch this space.
I can still see it . 15.02 Friday
Who would bother reportIng/getting it removed?
I was away for the last two weeks so was not following the board as often as usual. Doodlebug posted which has since been removed so I didn’t see it. Could someone please explain what it implied.
Thanks in advance.