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18:04 LM yes correct we are the operator and probably not many better in any case than Erik to oversee the project.
17:47 when it comes to SP most posters views are tinged by where they are in the investment cycle and or their investment history here, I am open minded as to how the SP may progress and do not think that we are restricted to the audience that we have had to date, think the Premier FO could bring a lot of new investors realising that on success potential returns will be greater at 88E than PMO, like you I would set no limit on potential SP growth ( within realistic levels).
least = leased (must sort out this predictive text thingy).
L-T-I, I think it is 88e who are running the drilling project (via our man in Alaska). PMO have bought 60% of the action (assuming our least area goes into production. For this privilege they are paying us $23M, which we are using to fund our drilling programme. I am not saying that PMO have not participated in the process - having spent millions (probably) on performing due diligence over the past year or so, I'm sure they have had their say. Alter all 88E, BEx and PMO are all chasing the same pot of gold.
Depending on which figures you think are accurate for a full valuation... or of a couple of dollars on the barrel for oil... figures include 47p, 20p etc I see no reason prices of 2p, 3p, 4p or even 5p could be reached if the crowd are really optimistic before the Premier Oil drill..
last 30 minutes saw a stream of buys and the buy price move up 5.49% on the day, we have almost certainly cleared the overhang so what's to stop some profits made elsewhere being reinvested into here?
Yes a spud may not cause the excitement of ten years ago but we have a new audience in PMO investors who may fancy a shot here, guess you view may depend on where you are in the investment cycle.
IMHO, you are being a tad pessimistic Bdogg!
1p is just a stones throw away, and the SP has rocketed in the past leading up to an event. If you then factor in the potential of seven prospects, nobody will want to be left behind before the spud in Feb 2020. I can easily see 2-3p before that happens, although I have been wrong many times before.
Good luck!
my prediction is no significant rise until the run up to results. Might get a blip but I dont think think this will hold above 1p until March. So basically anything under 1p is a steal if you can hold until April then you derisk what you want for results IMO.
This is a highly anticipated drill and I dont think the spud announcement will spike the price.
Hi,
Some very informative posts lately, have been catching up on the promo vid, and the Premier release – both sound pretty optimistic, so I’m assessing options in the next 6 months. There’s a number of key movements coming up which should allow some de-risking, or at least offer SP movement :
Run up to Charlie-1 – January 2020
Should get some increase on the SP, in the run up to Charlie-1. I know a few pence has been mentioned, not sure we’ll get to that, but it would be good to get to at least 1.5p – barring any disasters, I think the risk of Charlie-1 well not going ahead is very minimal.
Results of Charlie-1 – April 2020
If we’re successful on a number of the intersected plays, then we should get some decent movement on the SP. There’s net 480M barrels being tested, if this can be proved up, then there’s a reserve with a measurable value. Hopefully (and with the groundwork done, I’d like to think) the risk of not hitting any is very minimal. A bad result will trash the SP though.
There’s also the HRZ testing, which will follow, and may lead to some progression / farm-out / sale some way further down the line.
Sale of conventional reserves – after April 2020
There’s an appx value $3-4 / barrel, so pending success of Charlie-1 and proved conventional reserves, we could have an asset with a value of as much as just under £2B, which would make a massive difference to the SP, something in the region of 20p.
I don’t know if as soon as reserves are proven, along comes a buyer with a large cheque, or indeed how difficult it is to sell. Risk = ?? Premier have been mentioned, but their market cap is only about £730M, and although its not impossible for them to buy something at $2B, not sure they would want to.
HRZ / remainder of conventional – May 2020 onwards
The remainder of the conventional (think its about 300M barrels net to 88E) and the progression of the HRZ will be massively facilitated by some money in the coffers.
The HRZ is potentially much bigger than the conventional – there’s mention of an informal farm-in process being under way, but if there’s money to progress this internally, possibly we won’t have to give away a large chunk of this ??
Thoughts…. to buy more now, to de-risk at various points, or to sit tight….?
AA