RE: SPToday 15:35
Smallfish9 -- while your concerns about Falcon having almost zero value (5%) over the next 130 wells to be drilled around the SSH2/SSH3 site -- even Tamboran's own press release this morning (below) seems to challenge your position that Falcon's value is next to worthless.
While Falcon has pulled back on its fund raising requirements to 5% on that 51,000 acre block (and pushed Tamboran's and Daly Waters massive funding commitments from 38.75% each to 47.5% each on the next 130 wells) -- you seem to have discounted that Falcon, (and more importantly any buyer of Falcon) still has a 22.5% interest in both the remaining 950,000 acres in the Core deep blue area, along with 22.5% interest in the remaining 3 million acres that are covered by Falcon's three permits in the Beetaloo.
"The 1 million acres of deep shale in the Beetaloo West have potential to deliver
Tamboran’s gross Beetaloo Basin production ambition of 2 Bcf/d (~775 MMcf/d net to Tamboran)
(equivalent to more than 13.0 million tonnes per annum of LNG export capacity) for 40 years from a single
landing zone".
Smallfish -- even after discounting Falcon's share of the Pilot area of 51,000 acres (which is only 5% of the entire deep blue core one million acre area) -- Falcon is still has a forward discounted interest of 400 MMcf/d of that gas out of that 2Bcf/d total for just the dark blue core one million acre zone.
This is enough gas (just from Falcon's share of that one million deep blue core area) for someone like Inpex to commit to building their third LNG train in Darwin before their projected start date of 2030 for that third LNG train. What makes Falcon's non-operating position even more important for a potential buyer like Inpex -- is Inpex has no interest in being an operator, but rather just wants access to that Beetaloo gas at the very discounted cost of production (even after the ORRI's and gov't 12% tax rate are included).
Someone like Inpex couldn't care less about Falcon cutting it's interest down to 5% on that current 51,000 acre block -- as Inpex won't be looking for Beetaloo gas to be flowing to that third LNG train until 2030 for their third train proposed start date. While the fit with Inpex as a buyer of Falcon's share of the Beetaloo gas in nearly perfect-- their are numerous sovereign wealth funds in Asia, or other gas companies like EQT -- that won't be too concerned about Falcon missing out on that first 51,000 acre block, but rather will be paying more attention to the next two full length 3km horizontals (that Tamboran and Daly Waters will be paying 95% of the very exorbitant costs to prove up).