Smith (DS) Share Price (SMDS)

IP share price is high because of the takeover chatter for IP, but if that goes ahead, DS may be jettisoned. So presumably the market thinks there is a chance IP will be taken over, hence the price rise, but DS has not risen in line, because that deal may fall if IP is taken over. If the IP deal does not materialise, then the IP share price would go down and the DS deal presumably go ahead, so the DS price assumes that position - ie the market thinks IP wont be taken over, but there is a premium on IP shares because it just might happen? If IP isn't taken over, then its price will fall, but query by how much - the current DS price gives a hint maybe.

International Paper is over $39 per share which means £3.90 per share for SMSD. Are investors concerned the deal may not go ahead, hence the discount? When will the shareholders vote on the proposed acquisition?

According to a number of analysis the Suzano deal will not take place. I agree with them. The premium they would need to pay is way too high for it to be accepted.

If a deal happens without DS, then I would expect the DS price to fall. There would be no certainty Mondi would come back, although they might, at the same or I suppose a higher price. If a deal doesn't happen, then IP's price might fall a bit, and make the DS deal a bit less valuable. So could stay for the ride, sell now and walk away to calm the nerves, or sell now and buy IP! Anyone's guess!

Suzano, which has a market value of 77.2 billion reais ($15.21 billion), has communicated its $42-per-share offer to International Paper's board of directors verbally, and could submit a formal bid in the coming days, according to the sources, who spoke on condition of anonymity. International Paper shares ended trading in New York on Monday at $36.92.

Suzano, the world's largest pulp manufacturer, is in talks to line up debt financing to support its bid, and has informed International Paper that the offer would be conditional on the latter abandoning its deal with DS Smith, the sources said.