another 64 oil rigs are out of use in the us, according to the baker hughes weekly rig count, which takes the decline in oil rigs to 43% from peak count last year. more than double the previous week loss. will be interesting to see whether this fig reaches 50-60% decline.
The previous three reserve updates (2012,2013,2014) have been on the 28th, 18th and 31st March. So looking at this and the November Corporate Presentation we should see the new CPR before the end of March and at the latest the second week in April. To quote the company: 'T-sands, important price - Tested and proven' So as battle says we should get a decent reserve upgrade to underpin the share price. Currently at $55 oil price forecast I have a 45p a share NAV (risked), this reserves upgrade should push that NAV north of 50p. Also to note that for every $5 increase in the oil price, my model pushes the NAV up 3p a share. Another factor is the pipeline: With the increased netback per barrel Amerisur's NAV increases to just shy of 60p even at $55 oil. As long as the BoD can delver on time and we get a good CPR, we should see 60p this year but it is more likely to get to mid 50's.
Hopefully will be quite a significant uplift in reserves given previous T sand success at Plat 20, only time will tell. Also good to see that WTI seems to have stabilised abit.
yes, as they use the word 'weeks' rather than 'months' in the RNS, one hopes that news will be out by the time we get the reserves update.
News should be soon, last RNS was on the 9th Feb (3 and a half weeks ago). There will have to be some good progress being made or I fear we will slip under 30p.
I hope your not making investment decisions just on valuation ratios. Much more than that to take into consideration when making an investment.
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