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PetitStVincent, I’ve just read your post, I am in agreement with most you say. But please do not write this and that goes for everyone else who has gripes and not now turn up to the retail investors day, speak face to face with JB and the team, hopefully get some answers.
This is the answer, all who have queries it’s now your time. It’s simply no good typing out a chat and doing nothing else. The company are delivering in allowing us to put questions to them! As I’ve said don’t listen to the BULL from those who know nothing, turn up speak to the CEO and others around him.
The company have pulled off a sensational result, now we need to know how and when it is going to be delivered to benefit us and they are delivering with this investors day! Absolutely no excuses from any shareholder going forward, nor the continuous posting of lies we see.
As I said, put up or shut up!
I wonder if any of the non believers will turn up, (the nutters), absolutely no excuse for any investor to now slate the company. Turn up and meet the directors, hear it from the horses mouth! None of the BULL that is spouted about. Put up or shut up, that’s my opinion, Bucolic, I do hope you are going to ask your friends (the nutters) if they are going! I’m sure they will be otherwise engaged.
The only thing is, James, that we all only have one life to live. We’d like to enjoy the success of Futura sooner rather than later, whilst we have health and strength. So you gotta give Futura some mojo back.
I’m starting to think we need a different / additional broker. I’m sure if we had a Goldman Sachs telling its clients Futura was worth 154p a share without sales and a patent, the shares would not be closing below 48p today. Wishful thinking I know, but my point is only that I feel investors are simply ignoring the current broker, and have been doing so for years. What’s the point of having a broker investors do not listen to? Whose research commands no respect in terms of moving the share price accordingly? If the London market cannot value Futura properly, then what about seeking another, additional, listing on Nasdaq. ARM is relisting soon, with its primary listing there, because of higher valuations. Again, wishful thinking by me, given Futura does not yet sell there.
But something needs to change. Management need to restore upward momentum to the stock. September is their time to speak clearly, convincingly and passionately to the investment community, and to dazzle us with an exciting growth, profits and dividends story that will get us all buying.
After the slew of positive and significant announcements regarding Eroxon / Med3000 this year, most long term investors are probably scratching their heads that rather than trading above £1-£2, Futura’s share price is dribbling down towards the mid 40s in pence. Adjusted for new shares, less than half its value of over 2 years ago after getting EU clearance. Very odd, right? What gives?
In hindsight, there’s been a big loss of momentum. Well over two years with still no product on the shelves in most EU countries, filled with pointless additional and onerous testing and paper work required by the US FDA, and licensing negotiations that are still incomplete geographically. What product that is being sold in the UK is being dribbled out through Boots and Amazon, because of the need to both build brand awareness and learn from limiting mistakes to smaller scale. It will be years before Eroxon / MED3000 is being sold worldwide at full throttle. So there’s been a big loss of momentum since early 2021, reflected in heavy selling. I suspect selling in recent months also reflects the flipping of some of the warrants issued at 40p.
The loss of momentum has also been influenced by investors not knowing just how much sales volumes will be worth to Futura in terms of profit. Yes, commercial confidentiality is a reality of deal making. But to put a value on Futura’s shares, investors need to see through sales volumes to profit, and as a new product we’ve no handle on this at all. The finance director really needs to address the linkage between sales volumes and profit at the interims next month. No wishy washy excuses about confidentiality. We’ve got to know whether the profit per volume will increase as Eroxon is sold through other retail outlets / when those general sales will happen.
When EU clearance was gained, Futura was traded through market makers only. Now, trading in its shares is a mixed market maker - order book model. I’ve got to say that the historically big spikes in its share price have all occurred under the former model. Nowadays, the order book probably will make such dramatic price moves more difficult to achieve, if for no other reason than there are more participants making prices, and not just the limited number of market makers.
I do think Futura’s management needs to address the share price as a matter of urgency. Ordinarily, if a company’s share price underperforms it will get taken over or taken private. I doubt either of those will happen in the short term. James Barder seems to take the ‘field of dreams’ view - build it and they will come. So put in place a global licensing network, add solid KPIs to make licensees deliver, and voilà! Futura will make profits and the share price will increase accordingly.
Usual, some jumping, some buying. Top up top up! Again don't expect masses of movement on SP. I think we know how this is playing out. Hold in thier. I have another investment about to shoot, & its like this all the time. & there's nothing but great news with them aswell. All good!
Probably people who were expecting a large spike on the FDA news now getting bored and selling up. ( I was expecting a large spike, but still here )
LTH / first time poster….. WTF is going on?!?
Can someone explain to me why the SP is so low? It is SUCH a disappointment.
Too many had weak bladders in their beds today. That tanking late on today is shambolic. Fire sale now on! Load up!
I’m currently in USA - says it’s up 15 % today.
Wish I’d followed the Italian & sold at 65, cannot believe this is in the 40’s again! It’s like Groundhog Day! Complete manipulation makes no sense considering where we are! As for financials people keep talking about, there are 4million men suffer from ED in the UK, if we sell to 25% of them & they buy 4 packets a year that’s 4million units. At £25 say 60% is profit & FUM get 10% that’s £6mill, multiply by 10 for US £60mill, same again for ROTW £60mill. Total £126mill x5 for company valuation £500mill. Current value £160mill! So SP potentially x3 £1.50. I also think those are conservative numbers, that’s why I’m still IN.
Maybe RNS due , patent maybe?
Top up Top up! Top up!
81Lucky!
Totally agree with all you've said. Maybe some peoples, friends, uncle's, niece's grand daughters, cousin works in the finance dept @ FUM & has told back up the chain all the financial data! to be able to provide these calculations. I've also never known anyone unless a very close relationship to another person, that would disclose their personnel financial stand point with an investment. Nobody knows what this companies worth, only the directors! the fact that a company like Haleon wants in tells me that theirs the potential for a bright future! The company evaluation, is just that an evaluation projected from its potential & business plan, based on what is known of the potential market, & projected 20% market share projected. I think we maybe somewhat surprised when figures are published that based on future potential & projections, its many times this. 67% of world market! & 67% of total world male market could be one hellever wedge. The saleman in me sees the potential globally with this, & Haleon signing sealed it for me. Its just patience that's involved in my eyes now. Maybe if your of the older category & wanting a quick uplift to retire, then maybe its not for you, but for the younger, this is very very exciting!
On this BB there is a resemblance of a shout from the back seat "Are we there yet" . (Especially as final destination is not even clear)
It is astounding that some are trying to work out a math solution with so many unknowns, others even arriving to a definitive answer!
The SP is where it is exactly for this reason. The intrinsic value is in the future potential.
Investors do invest in companies with negative EPS, such as (IT start-ups). I am comfortable in the knowledge that none of the large holders (who hold 98.7m shares in the company) have sold up, indicated by lack of TR1 discloser. These guys are where they are because they have been making right investment choices, I share their confidence and to an extant, of the house broker.
I do keep a regular eye for any surprises/news, comfortable in the knowledge that barring any surprises the trajectory is upwards and on-wards with a good chance of an exponential rise at any time.
Yes bandit,
Thanks for ranting and not providing any content. Fits your name.
The low figure today was to answer all questions here about 'why is it so low?'
My high figure had a Date in the future which you forgot to mention. Go dig in my History again to find out what and how.
The difference was mentioned by someone else on this forum: different valuation now and in the future.
And your other assumption: i'v got around 500.000 shares i this one, which is a lot for me. And you? I'm not as rich as you, how could i? I'll never be as smart as you.
Still glad my post brought some discussions beyond 'oh it's low, there is a whale selling' :D
Https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/21/well/erectile-dysfunction-treatment-eroxon-gel.html
Hi DRM, it's already on the real life shelves in Belgian pharmacies too :) so yepz, really curious about sales numbers!
Hi Belgian Bert
The only sales Eroxon has is ….Uk ( boots Amazon ) where we can see roughly the daily online sales …NOT Instore (2300 stores ) and in your good country Belgium where the Farmaline site tells us bugger all
So I guess it’s an extrapolation of what daily yearly sales could be in the Uk times all the countries in the world where it would be released ( Europe USA Brazil far east Middle East Australia Latin America etc etc
If it sells well and gains traction in uk the hope is the rest of the world will follow and revenue will be in the hundreds of millions
Obviously we have a way to go ……but online uk ( Amazon and Boots) seems to be very strong
I'm 48 & been trading since I was 19, & learning everyday. My friend who now works in Australia in the exchange, used to work in LSE & he will always say, wait til its down in ink before quoting anything! we only know what a company want's us to know!
They are now the market leaders. It took 3 or 4 years before their brand was the go to brand!
Lovely people quoting figures on here, please elaborate on how you came about some of your calculations & from what data? I could give my calculation & I think it would read quite well based on what I know, but again would only be speculative as I don't know accurate sales Vs profit data! does anyone apart from FUM themselves! to many people professing to know more than the average on here at times. I'll go with what I see when its published :)
Enjoy the rest of the week chaps & ladies maybe 🙂
Gentlemen, I'm seeing a lot of negative & ill-informed info on here of late. I'm a long term FUMster! & feel everyone's frustration with this investment. It isn't for an investor wanting a quick return. It is a slow burn, in fact pain staking at times. But I've said it before & I will again, this is all about branding, backed up by numbers which stack up. This is a major product, infiltrating an established market of a huge brand-Viagra!!! so Eroxon means nothing to most, & even with adverts continually on the TV, will take time to grow in awareness. I feel the market is ready for something new as the side effects of the alternatives are awful.
Facts. Onset around 10 mins, little to no side effects, easy application, no planning, OTC, success rate 67% . What's not to like in comparison to competition. The negative reviews as I've said before will not affect things to much as products with claims such as success rate of 67% will find its position in the marketplace. As can now be seen with the still upward trend of sales, even with negative reviews.
-Now unless you work within FUM most information on here is speculative or from information found online & shared. We can all provide IMO's & they are just that... opinions, which are great to read as you get a feel for the investment amongst different investors experience & people's general views. My point, take all as opinions & research thoroughly anyway.
Even within FUM's small number of employees, only key individuals would know the financial data, I'm sure. When I was in sales & directly managing a large consortium of buyers, within a similar scaled product, it was all about branding & awareness & structure & protecting the handwork. I think FUM are rolling this out nicely. It's slow from what we see, but steady. I think we've all come to realise that the SP as much as we'd like it to boom, will require some financials reported September before hopefully we see a very surprising uplift in SP. IMO lol! I think it has sold more than we think as the initial sales figures quoted under the reported 'Phenomenon Affect with Boots' these sales would have been the initial buyers & I'm sure there's lots of resales in the mix now as well as that widening of sales affect as word & marketing spreads. Haleon being the size they are & the expertise in the US market, would not have bought in unless it was right.
This product appeals to the worlds population of men not just the ED market, so the potential is huge like a Suffolk Punches ****s, hoofs LOL!
Whoever is invested, sit back & just watch it unfold. Unfortunately, it will be slow for now, at least until the US get launching & other territories launch & come on board. The Patent will also spike a little before settling again. In short, it's all about the revenue & profit, once this is published, we should see some well-deserved uplift in SP price for us investors. The resemblance to how this is rolling out is very similar to my old company.
Hi Bandit,
I agree with you. FUM are overpriced on current revenue and sales, but share prices are determined by the future, not the present. Sales in the UK are not going to determine FUM's share price, the US is and the rest of the world are more important, and that is still to come. Going on UK sales it all looks positive!
Folks here need to be a little circumspect about what this geezer BelgianBert posts on here. I have filtered him today. In April he produced totally random sales figures suggesting a target of £1.50 then he declared his strategy of selling on the FDA news. In June he spouted another target of £1.20 based on random sales figures. Today he suggests that the company is worth only £7m based on even more random sales and margin numbers plucked out of thin air. Now, we can all produce number out of thin air, assume modest operating costs, apply an industry multiple and come up with a totally meaningless figure. More knowledgable investors will attribute some IP value, will forecast potential market share %’s in the markets we are about to enter over a period of years and produce a range of scenarios just like the brokers have done and importantly what our Belgian friend has failed to do. Funny that. Best to ignore folks as his musings are not worth reading. And yes, you have guessed it he is probably not invested atm and is waiting to get in as low as possible and will post nonsense hoping to help his cause. Sad but this goes on every day and hopefully most can see it a mile off. Hence I have filtered so don’t have to read his reply.
Your numbers don't make any commercial sense as I don't think Big pharma like HALEON would take the distribution on for peanuts.
Hi DRM72, what we know is how much $,$$ comes in as a revenue for FUM when selling a package. Anyone has a clue? or a range? I guess we'll have to wait untill september to get the first actual revenue numbers?
Current Market Cap (150Million) requires +$25,000,000 million of revenue to have 15% annual profits on the share, this would be more than 2 million units sold at more than $10 revenue.
I doubt the $10 royalties on each unit sold. and i doubt the +2 million/year units sold (= 4 units sold each minute of 24/7/365).
Numbers reported here on the forum point to 1 every minute = 525.000/year.
Normal revenue would amount to $2/unit as they are doing nothing besides cashing in.
= This would justify 7 million market cap today + future profits. (vs. 150M. now)
If you want to respond to my message, please do it providing your numbers. I would appriciate factual responses.