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I thinks Aim999 post reference Bamps and Paddy and the falling knife is on the wrong board. I am sure it was meant for the GGP forum not here
Crypto..
Share price depends entirely on investor sentiment. All the miserable posts here since the raise hardly reassure new or existing investors about putting money in do they? So far today we have had George called basically a fraudster, the share a falling knife, and some whinges about endless dilution.
The reality is they are always going to raise cash after each stage in the development is passed, because that's when the iis putting the money up are satisfied enough to do so.
What we should all hope is that new and existing investors see the progress for what it is, an increase in the probability of success and corresponding overall value increase of the company. But unless someone sees that and wants to buy shares because of it then the share price is going nowhere.
ALBA is small enough for the price to be influenced by BB posts. A high percentage of the investor community is likely reading these boards. I'm not saying we all have to be happy clappers, but some realism has to set in at some point.
George doesn't set the share price, I know that may seem to not be the case, but he is hostage to the investors who are putting the money up. All he and the rest of the team can do is the list of exercises that enable them to raise the next round of money. Private investors are not going to fund this, neither are the management team. Institutional investors who are expected to put their hands in their pockets for millions will want some certainty about what they are going to get back.
So yes, in order to raise the cash to process waste tips the company will have show there is sufficient gold in the waste tips to generate a return. That means pitting and lab samples. If that comes back positive then you can expect a raise to fund processing the waste tips.
I've no idea how rich George is. When I was last working as an exec for a big co that was issuing shares I was roundly criticised for not buying in. I just didn't have the spare cash, that was the end of the story as far as I was concerned.
Lets not forget that Alba has been the owner of 90% of the clogouw assets since july 2018.
A lot of data was already put togather for them, so in nearly 6 years what have we achieved?
GF is obssesed with sampling an pitting etc.
I have a biger stake in this than he has.
If he was serious about this and if he wanted the share price to go up he would have participated in the last placing.
The fact he only bought 15 k shares a couple of years back speaks volumes in my opinion......
I appreciate what you are saying Pickedpeck, but the SP was far better when the mine was flooded and the gold wasn't bulging out of the walls.
I'm not expecting miracles but now all these hurdles have been overcome and if the news is as positive as George makes out would it be too much to expect a steady , if mediocre move in the right direction of SP.
This is not a falling knife or anything like one. This is a speculative investment.
Those stages I put in the message below, passing each one successfully adds to the enterprise value and reduces risk.
For example proving 'X' number of ounces of gold in place makes investing further lower risk than having no clue how much gold is down there. Proven resources are worth more than wishful thinking.
Similarly a mine that is dewatered and has shown gold to be present at localised high grades is worth more than a dead mine full of water.
What exactly are you expecting to happen?
The thing is your investment is worth what it is worth today, and today is the day you have to make a decision whether you think it will go up or down in future. If you think it will go down why wouldn't you sell? If you think it will go up why wouldn't you hold or sell more?
The price you paid is nothing more than an emotional constraint, whether you are up or down is completely irrelevant to whether the investment will be worth more or less in future.
Personally I think this will be worth more in future, and have bought more as a result. If I thought there was only down from here I would have sold not bought. What I paid for my first tranche of shares doesn't matter a hoot in all that.
Well said Asllankukeli, how can we move on when thousands down. Of course things are positive and good news has started to flow, but smiley George gives us good news one day and screws the SP the very next day all the time. Our investment is going in reverse and has been in decline for absolutely ages. It's all about George and his mates and stuff us small investors .
Donāt catch a falling knife
Leave that to Bamps and paddy
This is very good! People forget we are very early exploration and companies donāt run on air, some people just donāt seem to understand how long and expensive and risky mining stock is but if does hit them you are in for substantial winnings when investing so early on!
Accordingly to the companies 6 month plan it looks like some substantial change will come for better or worse as they will be looking at some form of FS!
Really needs a strategic investor to put up the money to build the mine without the need for more dilution. Any welsh billionaires out there?
A good point and with the geopolitical situation as it is gold is going to $3000-$5000 per oz it the next 3-5 years so in an excellent position to take advantage at just the right time.
Over Ā£1800 oz not to be ignored.
Welsh gold also commands a premium.
Imo at least Ā£2 million income this year from the scrap they are sending for refining.
If only it was as simple as that, sell up and move on. Name one holder who is even or up on their investment just one.
We had a placing on 5th july last year for 750 k straight after that little spike from d permit. Vast majority of that would have been spent on pointles consultants fees and a small portion on pumping out the water.
If you add the 350 k or so raised last time it equals 1m gbp needed just to keep GF and his mates ongoing.
As of now alba sp is aroung 5,6 milion gbp. It will take aroung 5 years at this pace to send the share price to absolute zero.
Some investors seem happy enough with the status quo.
I think is vvery sad watching my saving desimate away at speed with little to show for it.
Would have felt much better if it was donated away to starving kids in Gaza.....
There is a lot of whinging here about raises and no instant price gratification. So I thought I might post a thread to help set some expectations as there is a lot more 'stuff' going to happen before we (maybe, possibly) arrive in the promised land of Clogau production.
1. Raises
Alba does not have any income. Their only realistic way of paying for day to day operations plus any new activity is via issuing new shares in rounds of raises. The approach they are taking to raising money is piecemeal, that is possibly several times a year they will need to issue shares. The alternative is that they take a wild assed guess on the whole project funding and try and raise it all in one go. They have literally zero chance of succeeding with that whilst extensive regulatory barriers remain, and the ore body remains unproven in value.
2. Proving the ore body
Sampling that is happening now will show that some gold is present. However extensive and expensive drilling will likely be necessary if they need to prove the in place resources in order to raise a proper level of capital. The only way to pay for that drilling program is #1 above
3. Planning Permission
Assuming they find enough gold to be worth their while reopening the mine, and it is not guaranteed they will no matter how hopeful we all are, they will have to apply for planning permission to do so. Given how long it took to get permission to dewater the lower levels, we can't expect this process to be quick, and possibly not even successful without appeal. Locals may protest about increased traffic, noise, blasting, displaced bats, otters with too much water to swim in, or even that George doesn't speak good enough Welsh.
4. Funding
Once they have a proven resource, and all regulatory approvals to reopen the mine, they will need to buy mining equipment and employ miners. That will mean a more serious level of #1 than before, likely to involve raising millions rather than thousands. Depending on how they approach this, the minimum level would be maybe Ā£5m, but could be as much as Ā£15-20m. I can't see it being more as the mine is already there, they don't have to sink shafts or build access roads etc. It will all be about extraction and processing machinery which will probably be relatively small scale.
5. Commissioning Opex
Even when all the kit is bought, there is a period between buying all the stuff and getting it all working. That may last 6 months to a year, and be subject to regulatory oversight. Employing lots of people and having lots of kit lying around before you actually start generating much money is expensive. Expect another Ā£5m at least needing to be raised.
So in terms of time from here to a working mine I'd guess a minimum of 3 years. In terms of money needing to be spent, as a guess I would say a minimum of Ā£15m and possibly up to Ā£30m to get the mine back in action.
The trick is that the underlying enterprise value should increase as each stage abo
Cjen, itās frustrating whatās happened to the share price for sure but stop & consider how far weāve come - George raises when needed & we actually have gold now (not that long ago we didnāt know if weād even get license approvals) - As the gold appears the share price/sentiment will rally - Personally I wished George would offload HH oil to fund development & the directors buy in at a higher raise price - This is a silly buy-in price now considering we are bulk-sampling L4 (there could be some decent gold in the bulk samples & waste pits yet) - GLA
Take it out now if that's how you feel. If you think it will only go backwards why are you still here?
If you no longer believe in the reason you invested then stop investing, simple really.
He crashes the share prise with every raise and raises on every positve outcome. A ROI is vitually imposdible with Alba as many will testify.
I wish someone had told me before I sank any of my money into ALBA.
Things moving at quite a pace now.
Some of the potential income figures are very large and we still have a stake of over 40%.
Disagree he raises per each portion of the project the raise before last was for rehab thatās ticked money diminished from it now the raise is for the bulk sampling expect a raise in about 6 months for the next phase unless he is pushing some kind of small production. He only raises āsmallā each time to do whatever is next on the agenda
Someone is investing some cash today.. good things to come!
Robbie2017 I admire your optimism but George seems to raise whenever there is good news. If we are indeed to go mining, and I sincerely hope we are, then the reality is we will need more funds.
It's almost as though the CEO wants to suppress the SP........crazy!!
Must be close on Ā£2 million of gold from the raise last week. Seems like money well spent
Indeed all those around 0.68ish are buys, same on Thu when the whole day was pretty much solid buys - not sure why we arenāt ticking up but guess the market is still absorbing the recent raise so be a few days before we tick-up - we have gold incoming (lots more results to come) & a raise is out the question now for several months so George āshouldnātā be raising on any incoming good newsā¦ GLA