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Blimey Potnak, an IT contractor complaining about tasks completing on time and without glitches! Really!
Just thinking, if RF really need the money now but SAR don't need to pay them the £800k back until August 25, maybe they would accept a lower amount (perhaps £500k) right now to settle. Needs must as the devil drives.
We could even offer them £400k, a bird in the hand etc.
Elcap
Hi HBD - I think that is a very fair point and the reverse takeover of SVEN may well be a big factor in the decision making of RF. The impact on their portfolio containing Sareum would be severe. That being stated, I am very mindful of the intel we received here that PH were going short on Sareum and the next day, down we went and it has continued.
I am just glad that sufficient funds have been raised to get us over this hurdle. I am hoping that our financial woes can be eased quite considerably in the coming months
By doing what they say they will and on time.
RF forward selling. Look for a big after hours sell.
Hi Laz, as we aren't privy to all the meetings and therefore all the facts we are left to consider all the what ifs.
Further to the quote I posted yesterday from RF's RNS, is it possible that our current sp is down to nothing more than bad timing? The quote was from RGO's 22/3/24 RNS:
"...in advance of the Proposed Acquisition, the Company's existing debt and equity-linked portfolio investment portfolio has been redeemed in order to provide additional cash funds for RGO going forward whilst, at this stage, RGO's other investments, including the new loan to SVEN will be retained."
Is it simply a case of, if RF weren't focused on gathering funds to do a reverse takeover then they wouldn't have needed to dump our shares in order to accumulate whatever money was needed? If RF weren't looking to do the reverse t/o then perhaps they'd have had no need to sell their SAR shares.
If the above is correct then it might simply be that RF intended holding onto our shares for a big pay-off but they just didn't have enough funds to allow them to do that. The net result is they had no option but to sell our shares though safe in the knowledge they'd be issued more.
More over-thinking of the situation is available upon request.
Riz. The 2.9 million shares we are just about to give them should take us under £500k balance still owed. They are nearly gone and as Aber stated they might use some of the £800k raised to settle that. If not, we will give them another 5 million shares in two tranches so not to trigger a TR1. As long as the sp stays above 10p, that will be it. They're gone until they cash in the warrants. Doing another wrap with all the costs and further dillution, doesn't make any sense. Looking at the trades today we may see a big after hours sell from RF. That's good because it'll be over 10p sell price.
Not forgetting that our CHK1 was on-licensed 4 months into its P1 so a license deal for SDC-1801 can fall anytime and not just on results. If the Bod now have sight of a potential funding partner for P2a ref Edison then that will in turn strengthen any licence negotiations for larger sums....
Why do you think?
Interesting post Potnak.
I think the biggest hangover at the moment is the £800k RF that’s outstanding. I know people mentioned that the HNW and retail individuals would have been happy to provide funding to clear that loan .
We can still approach the company with that suggestion. I can reach out to them … but need to gauge at who would want to be involved in providing funding ?
Lots of regurgitation of "blame" factors here and dissatisfaction and "The Board had better sort it out!" posts.
It is undeniable that the Board has overseen a PR disaster with the sp but it is the foresight/hindsight argument as ever.
Rewind to just ahead of the RF deal. We were all questioning and speculating where the cash for any progress would come from. Sareum are cash-strapped and have no revenue and no successful trials behind them. Puma has stated that they approached the City who were offering 30p per share. At the time, RF agreed a £1.03 per share deal. So did the Board act in our interest by potentially reducing dilution - I think they did.
RF then royally screw us all - Was the Board guilty of naivety? - Probably but we are not privy to conversations just the outcomes.
This Chatboard was awash with criticism and vitriol and speculation that this had all been set up etc: etc: rightfully, demands BoD action. This comes in the form of reassurance of no new drawdowns with RF, Director buys, HNWI buy, a placing to compensate for RF funds not being drawn and a wrap initially for £300k for pi's that was extended once it was realised that more could be raised.
So the Board acted very quickly and in accordance with our wishes. The sp fell to 10.3p and there was plenty of opportunity to buy at that level on the open market if pi's found themselves unable to participate in the offer.
RF are almost out save for warrants and £800k to be settled by August 2025.
With the benefit of hindsight and lots of time to pick holes in all of the above, yet more complaint, outrage and indignation ensues coupled with expressions of "or else"
I recognise that things have gone wrong courtesy of RF and some Brokers but try placing yourselves in that Boardroom and being part of the scenario. The Board can be forgiven that, due to the amount of pi vitriol being expressed here, that they would not get the necessary funds to progress due to pi dissatisfaction and they needed certainty. The City provided certainty. With hindsight, maybe they could have raised more as the appetite certainly seems to be there amongst us loyal shareholders. But they didn't know that at the time did they?
IMO Sareum are through the worst of this and we move into news periods and a recovery of the sp. I appreciate that, to some, I come across as an apologist for the Board. I am not, but I do think that both sides of the coin should be looked at and, more importantly, understood.
None of us like what has happened here but - lets face it - we have all been given equal opportunity to fill our boots at these low levels if the appetite was genuinely there.
Anyway, enough from me.
7 times more buys than sells, why ?
MMs fast to move up this morning not many shares available at these levels news must be getting close now GLA
People always talk about the disconnect here and it's true. The company and therefore the shareholders are sitting on compounds, that if, big IF, they got to market, would be worth multiple billions. Maybe even into double digit billions. Even with discounts applied, a phase 1 asset should be worth £100 million ish, a phase 2 ready asset should be worth £200 million, phase 3 ready is £800 million. We have 3 compounds on the go. So you can see how it adds up. The sweet spot where risk v reward favours the long term holder is end of phase 2, start of phase 3. The conundrum for Sareum, is how to get to the end of phase 2 whilst not giving away too much. If they had the funding then we'd already be at the £100 million stage, just as we were. It want overvalued, that was fair value. The non dillutative partnership, stated in the Edison report sound like it might be enough to get 1801 into phase 2 trials. That statement isn't just made up. Sareum pay Edison £60k a year to write these reports. They haven't just plucked that from nowhere. To agree, confirm with HBD, £800 million is kind of industry standard for a phase 3 ready drug. That's what Tim will have been pointing out. End of phase 2 plus time analyse and data readout is probably 18 to 24 months. £12 million to a potential £1.2 billion (1801 £800 m, 1802 200m, 737, £200 or 27% of 800m).
Not ramping, industry standard valuations. So yes there us a disconect. Is it the compounds or is it Sareum board.
Hi Basil, interesting read thank you. Re the WRAP offer not being available to all, I did apologise to you yesterday (08.46) for my error following colbalt's helpful clarification, I didn't realise some brokers had effectively been excluded from the raise. Let's hope they learn from this, along with many other lessons they should have taken from the whole debacle. One can only hope that a drop in value of their own holdings from c. £4.8m to less than £200k has chastened Tim and John, I know it would have done had it been me! K
Sorry, too early for mental arithmatic, now have five times as many shares. Woohoo.
I agree, Silver. My average is now a third of what it was two weeks ago and I've now got four times as many shares. My target sp is now greatly reduced and I believe quite achievable.
I vaguely recall Tim suggesting 1801 & 1802 could be worth £800m each. I don't think we'll reach those dizzying heights but looking at other deals, the values don't seem crazy. Plus we all know a license or sale would be based on the potential value of the compound, not the current m/cap of the company.
The great thing now as well is owning a lot more shares than before because of the recent opportunity to buy at 10 to 12p!!
Totally agree Aber and others anything less than £250 million would be an insult but was just musing out loud that no one had tried! My target still remains a £billion the old Thoth target but would top slice on the way up.
Honestly, Aber. I'd still be disappointed with less than £10. Good 1a results and funding for 2a should see the company valued around £400 million. Add to that 737, could be worth £200 million to us, if in trials with a known schedule and then 1802, then even with discounts, we're on our way past £5 with TO talks starting above that.
The company is mostly in the hands of private investors. How would they do it without anyone noticing. Theyd have to buy on the open market, we'd get TR1's and the sp woukd start to rise. What do you think woukd happen if we got an RNS saying GSK owned 3% of the shares. The herd woukd be here and we know what happens then.
Great post, Basil. The thing that triggers me, is, those with Stockholm Syndrome, those who will point the finger anywhere else but the board. They use whataboutery, it could be worse, conspiracy and they're all out to get us. The recent thing of wanting to throw more money at the RF is weird. It would still mean dillution and again some LTH wouldn't be able to take part. As it stands, the compsny has enough to deliver 1a data and a small runway after. If a company, whose business model is to license at the pre clinical stage can't do a deal at the clinical stage. Then the either the compound is no good or the board are no good. Why would you willingly throw more money their way?
It is what it is, we are here now. The pressure is on the board to deliver what they say they will and on time. Posters here keep telling us how good 1801 is. It's time to see if they are correct.
Morning Silver - not sure anyone would accept 25M but 200M+ (£2+ per share) and I bet many on here would now consider that given the rough rides of late and the uncertainties due to lack of comms etc .. and 200M is still very small change for the large pharmas
One thing I don’t understand is why at the current ridiculous market cap of £11 million we have not been the subject of an opportunist hostile takeover bid? Surely big pharmas like GSK etc know all about SARs products and research and anything up to £25 million would just be small change to them for products with huge potential.
Refreshingly, a great and honest post. Thank you.