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@OB
Hope you and family are well, health is wealth as you always say.
Sure, IF Adrian gets it right for H2 he has a chance and it then becomes a recovery play, although i am concerned that the requisition was removed enabling Kevin and Martin to stay, i believe i speak for many in saying that was a mistake as SH really wanted the opportunity to see the back of those two at the earliest, anyhow not long until end of June.
Pork's
P.S I know you are also a fan of the shiny stuff, even i was surprised at the recent Gold run.... nice one.
Evening Mr P…
I hope you are well?
You are here for the same reason as most of us are……you can smell a profit.. probably long term TBF….
Am I wrong?
OB
@PM2022
It really is like Deja Vu with you, we have the exact same conversation every time. You try and convince that the cash runway is longer than it is, then when they place act shocked that you didn’t see it coming, wake up.
Let me give you the maths in simplistic form.
Skint at end of December 23 except a few quid. Cash burn averaging £200k pcm. They raise £1.8m BEFORE costs in Jan 24. Not sure of the fees but probably 5% but lets ignore that for the illustration.
Question: Do you think costs will go up, stay the same or go down? Answer: most likely IMO to go up as you have 4 more BOD members to feed and settlement costs to pay Suzy off from BOD position and settle any other liabilities.
IF cash burn were the same the runway would extend to September 24 (9 X £200K is month 9 i.e Sept) but with the broker fees and other costs most likely a bit earlier July or August maybe?
A new board all in situ for end of June ready to start H2 1/7 would not want to go into that with only a few weeks cash left nor would they want to leave it right until the wire to raise cash, which would be totally irresponsible, and we need a change from old.
So, my best guess is they use the end of June AGM to propose the business plans going forwards and introduce the new BOD structure for H2 and request headroom shares for a July or August placing, that feels reasonable to me.
My call is 150m shares at 1p to raise £1.5m cash. Some investors think it should be 2p, but the market is tough. Any raise must reflect risk and the new board are rebuilding the business from ground up. To put this into perspective at 1.7p the share price fully diluted would be roughly the same market cap as where we were at the April 21 restructure. That’s why I think 1p is realistic and 2p probably top heavy IMO but let’s see where it comes out, but funds will be required make no mistake.
No doubt you will reply and say but Pork’s THX could pay the £2m over blah blah, they wont, it’s a dead duck and the new BOD need to move on from that now, rid the business of that albatross around their neck and more forwards fresh. A new board, a new direction, priority to value shareholders, a new start is what's needed now desperately.
Good luck to you.
Pork's
Think PM's chat GTP forgot the bonuses lol. Quiet day here in it.
PM, you forgot the most Important Item the Bonuses. IMO
Cash runway now appears sufficient to carry it well into 2025
Full year 2023E Group net losses along with the cost of establishing/facilitating Inaphaea Biolabs (including the
acquisition of Imagen Therapeutics), resulted in an average estimated cash burn of a little over £200,000/month for
the period. If one now prudently assumes further, albeit somewhat reduced, Group net losses for 2024E, during
which time it utilises the newly raised net funding to accelerate exploitation and integration of its acquired BioBank
materials in tandem with commercial development/brand establishment within Inaphaea while also advancing
its preclinical product pipeline in the absence of further cash acquisition(s), the Group now appears to have runway
sufficient to carry it into Q2 2025.
Between now and then, of course, various upside scenarios suggest this period could become significantly extended.
This could be derived through securing higher volumes of fee-paying service customers for Inaphaea, potential
signing of licensing agreements with external parties willing to pay upfront charges and fund ongoing
development of the Group’s preclinical and/or clinical assets which, in turn, could also attract continuing
milestones instalments. Any such outcome could be both transformative for ValiRx’s balance sheet while also
proving its business model.
Before the last placing.
From the last set of annual accounts - they said they had already started discussions on the next placing.
'The Directors are continuing to explore sources of finance available to the Group
and based upon initial discussions with a number of existing and potential investors they have a reasonable
expectation that they will be able to secure sufficient cash inflows for the Group to continue its activities beyond
the 12 months from the date of approval of these financial statements.
The Company carries out regular fund-raising exercises in order that it can provide the necessary working
capital for the Group. Further funds may be required to finance the Group’s work programme. The Board expects
to continue to raise additional funding as and when required to cover the Group’s development, primarily from
the issue of further shares.'
1) You are wrong because I am in no doubt that this Adrian person would help put some incentives for board members with decent targets by June.
2) He was backed by the private shareholder group and others so if he goes in and does a placing at such a crazy price then he has already failed and should be removed immediately as he has no experience in this field and if he goes against what existing shareholders want then it will be curtains for him. I see no reason why the cash burn should increase beyond what has been projected.
The BOD members have not been confirmed yet but I doubt they will be rewarded with very high salaries or that we see more people on the BOD than before.
The projection remains at the end of Q1 2025 and that without any revenue.
@PM2022
With respect you have constantly told us all to buy these shares and also ignored their cash burn situation and over exaggerated the length of their cash runway on more than two occasions costing those that follow you money. You are now doing it yet again because with four board additions they will be burning the cash even quicker at the moment i can tell you. Not to mention its the 9th April today and i though you were giving THX until end of march? or was that march 2025 or march 2035? How is that working out?
Meanwhile, for some reason you are obsessed with my diabolical decision to back 4D, company lied and the stock got delisted, for me it was a write off against capital gain in last tax year. For What its worth i had a similar write off against gains on the penny share Novacyt in the previous year to that, again that company director lied. Lesson here is that a) its often what companies don't say that's more important than what they do say and b) when you invest in penny shares some work out and some don't - its how it is. But not that its any of your business on balance i have a VERY strong portfolio and various business interests and penny shares are only a small section of it.
These days i don't ramp anything, AIM sector is ready to rebound but not just yet IMO. As a hedge i have also built massive exposure to PM, specifically GOLD which lucky for me has been doing well recently. That's not a flex, its just to say you need to always diversity.
As for Valirx, i give you this for free regarding your comment 2show me the money" : IF and its a big IF Adrian, gets his act together, removes the deadwood from the board, refocuses the business back on evaluations, cuts cash burn back to under £1.5m pa, gets a plan to make the labs break even or if not possible sells them on, i will materially back the July/August placing and in doing so become an advocate.
And, if you think i'm wrong about the placing, think again. It will happen because no new board in their right mind is going to want to drive this business forward from H2 without sufficient funds to do so. The question then is IF a return on investment is possible? We need that new board and direction changes to stand a chance IMO until then its more pain and cash burn short term as i see it.
Show us the money Porky. Show us the money.
SInce 4D went down I have not seen you ramp a single stock something you would do often in various stocks before 4D day and night. My guess is you simply have nothing left to invest. I find it hard to believe you do not find one stock that is worth posting positively about since 4D collapsed.
Your stock analysis is biased. They have done a great job bringing in top quality projects and having a lab to support it. 201 has been handled poorly but It can still complete soon and hopefully the company will get stronger and stronger after that completes. Not many AIM companies do so much and yet spend only 2 million a year, looking at 4D burning 55 million a year with zero revenue but that was investible to you who was posting his buys on Twitter.
If 201 happens then this should be a 20 bagger in the next 12-18 months when the market improves and hopefully with 1 good preclinical deal and given the quality of the new compounds that is likely.
I hate to have to admit it, but I agree with you 100% Porks....Id sack the lot of them. Put a strong, well respected, successful, manager on the helm, support and motivate the technical team....bring on A1 scientists under Suzys wing (Suzy salary adjusted to align with the net share price)....Bonus linked to SP.....end of
@HD
Don't be so ridiculous.
Do you seriously believe that the BOD has managed the business well and respected its shareholders? Because i don't. The lack of commercial acumen demonstrated by the board and the dire decisions made not to mention the diabolical handling of 201 has led to this shambles of an outcome.
Further they have been paid well, made the decision to award themselves nice bonuses and delivered you next to nothing in return, all at your expense. Spend, raise, spend, raise, consolidate cycles one after the other.
Rather than point the finger in the direction of the boards bad management you use this discussion forum, which i might add is to discuss investments from a SH perspective NOT a company perspective to attack the very people that could invest should this penny play ever become investable.
As at today it remains totally uninvestable IMO and the BOD are 100% culpable for that, nobody else.
Pork's
PS. For the record i have NEVER requested removal of any post. I advocate free speech and frankly you can post and say anything you like about myself i really count care less, it doesn't bother me but i will comment where i think your stock analysis is wrong.
Calling a 1p placing or no support at all and at 6p which was mainly due to a leak is the same as calling a 30p placing at 6p. Then moving from July to August to September to October to November to December.
What idiot would think that is an accurate prediction.
Yup, it's dead Jim..
Iceman. I respect your positivity, something this board has been missing for good reason, but it seems we are forgetting just how accurately Porks called this one.
This remains uninvestable for me. When you take into acount the consistent lack of any income generation, sentiment, finite cash runway and lack of comms from the board its highly likely one could lose 50% of their investment from this very spot before any sign of recovery. Lets be realistic.
Lol porky, better to bet on man city games than this, far more profitable :)
How come you didn't adopt that strategy over at 4D?
@Iceman888
Only problem with your £15k gamble buying in at 3.5p is you need mugs to come in now at 3.7 and above for you to sell into to have any chance of a return due to the 5.7% spread.
Closer you leave it open through to the placing and you can guarantee stock will be sold into again to support more cash hence you are more likely to lose your bet imo.
Appreciate you like a bet but seriously, if Adrian can clear out the dead wood, get cash burn under control you could support the placing and if the SP starts to recover buy in then. Better to buy stocks going up than try and catch a falling knife.
I agree with you Porky that the company has made a right pigs ear of it all. I invested because of CLX and I’m still confident that will be the company maker even with all the crap going on.
In the interim share price may fall but 1p really? Surely even you don’t believe this Porky.
Kudos for calling it right so far but I find it hard to believe that someone spends years on a chat forum but is not invested and thinks the company is now a broken record 😂
LMOL @Iceman888
So you chuck £15k in to try another pump attempt with "why wait to buy" messages, and oh gawd no doubt more "i'm buying more messages" - even some of my ramps were not that bloody obvious.
God loves a trier that's for sure...
Still best to have a go now if you can sucker a few in before the penny placing. Good luck to you
When will you have to send in a TR1? Or does dilution keep reducing your percentage holding?
PS - when do you expect the next placing. It seems odds on for this year; October seems about right if there is no cash injection from elsewhere.
Least we're blue
"What do you all think?"
There's nowt so queer as folk
Borgie,
Looks like you got smashed on BRH and all the other stocks so trying to crossramp here does not work given your track record.
Pure desperation to ask an elderly person to invest in your junk. What a joke.